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Modeling Large Fire Frequency and Burned Area in Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystems with Poisson Models

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Abstract

Large wildland fires are major disturbances that strongly influence the carbon cycling and vegetation dynamics of Canadian boreal ecosystems. Although large wildland fires have recently received much scrutiny in scientific study, it is still a challenge for researchers to predict large fire frequency and burned area. Here, we use monthly climate and elevation data to quantify the frequency of large fires using a Poisson model, and we calculate the probability of burned area exceeding a certain size using a compound Poisson process. We find that the Poisson model simulates large fire occurrence well during the fire season (May through August) using monthly climate, and the threshold probability calculated by the compound Poisson model agrees well with historical records. Threshold probabilities are significantly different among different Canadian ecozones, with the Boreal Shield ecozone always showing the highest probability. The fire prediction model described in this study and the derived information will facilitate future quantification of fire risks and help improve fire management in the region.

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Acknowledgments

The fire databases are used courtesy of the Canadian provincial, territorial, and federal fire management agencies. This research is supported by NSF Arctic System Science Program (NSF252 0554811) and NSF Carbon and Water in the Earth Program (NSF-0630319). The high-performance computing is supported by the Rosen Center for Advanced Computing (RCAC) at Purdue University.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA

    Yueyang Jiang & Qianlai Zhuang

  2. Department of Agronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA

    Qianlai Zhuang

  3. Department of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zurich, CHN K74.1, CH 8092, Zurich, Switzerland

    Daniel Mandallaz

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  1. Yueyang Jiang
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  2. Qianlai Zhuang
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Correspondence to Yueyang Jiang.

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Jiang, Y., Zhuang, Q. & Mandallaz, D. Modeling Large Fire Frequency and Burned Area in Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystems with Poisson Models. Environ Model Assess 17, 483–493 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-012-9307-5

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