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Dynamic simulation and projection of ESV changes in arid regions caused by urban growth under climate change scenarios

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Abstract

Spatial simulation and projection of ecosystem services value (ESV) changes caused by urban growth are important for sustainable development in arid regions. We developed a new model of cellular automata based grasshopper optimization algorithm (named GOA-CA) for simulating urban growth patterns and assessing the impacts of urban growth on ESV changes under climate change scenarios. The results show that GOA-CA yielded overall accuracy exceeding 98%, and FOM for 2010 and 2020 were 43.2% and 38.1%, respectively, indicating the effectiveness of the model. The prairie lost the highest economic ESVs (192 million USD) and the coniferous yielded the largest economic ESV increase (292 million USD) during 2000-2020. Using climate change scenarios as urban future land use demands, we projected three scenarios of the urban growth of Urumqi for 2050 and their impacts on ESV. Our model can be easily applied to simulating urban development, analyzing its impact on ESV and projecting future scenarios in global arid regions.

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Data availability

The data we used is available at https://figshare.com/s/72197943ea773b570957.

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Acknowledgments

This research was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42071371).

Funding

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42071371).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China

    Xiaoyan Tang, Yongjiu Feng, Mengrong Xi, Shurui Chen, Rong Wang & Zhenkun Lei

  2. The Shanghai Key Laboratory of Space Mapping and Remote Sensing for Planetary Exploration, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China

    Xiaoyan Tang, Yongjiu Feng, Mengrong Xi, Shurui Chen, Rong Wang & Zhenkun Lei

  3. Shanghai Research Institute for Intelligent Autonomous Systems, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China

    Yongjiu Feng & Rong Wang

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  1. Xiaoyan Tang
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Contributions

Xiaoyan Tang performed the experiments, analyzed the results, and wrote the manuscript.

Yongjiu Feng conceived the idea and revised the manuscript.

Mengrong Xi participated in the experiments and the analysis of the results.

Shurui Chen participated in the experiments and the analysis of the results.

Rong Wang participated in writing and editing.

Zhenkun Lei participated in the discussion of the results.

All authors reviewed the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yongjiu Feng.

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Tang, X., Feng, Y., Xi, M. et al. Dynamic simulation and projection of ESV changes in arid regions caused by urban growth under climate change scenarios. Environ Monit Assess 196, 411 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12559-5

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