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Hydrological impacts of future climate and land use/cover changes in the Lower Mekong Basin: a case study of the Srepok River Basin, Vietnam

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Abstract

This study presents hydrological impacts of future climate change (CC) and land use/cover change (LUCC) for the Srepok River Basin (SRB) in the Vietnam’s Central Highlands. The hydrology cycle of this basin was reproduced using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) allowing an evaluation of hydrological responses to CC and LUCC. Future climate scenarios of the 2015–2100 period under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and LUCC scenario in 2050 were developed. Compared to the reference scenario (1980–2005), future LUCC increases the streamflow (0.25%) and surface runoff (1.2%) and reduces the groundwater discharge (2.1%). Climate change may cause upward trends in streamflow (0.1 to 2.7%), surface runoff (0.4 to 4.3%), and evapotranspiration (0.8 to 3%), and a change in the groundwater discharge (− 1.7 to 0.1%). The combination of CC and LUCC increases the streamflow (0.2 to 2.8%), surface runoff (1.6 to 5.6%), and evapotranspiration (1.0 to 3.1%), and reduces the groundwater discharge (1.5 to 2.7%) with respect to the reference scenario. Moreover, the results noted that the water scarcity may happen in the dry-seasonal months.

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Acknowledgements

This research is funded by Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development (NAFOSTED) under grant number “105.06-2019.20.” The authors also would like to thank the anonymous reviewer for their valuable and constructive comments to improve our manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Environment, University of Science, 227 Nguyen Van Cu Str., Dist. 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Dao Nguyen Khoi & Nguyen Thi Thuy Trang

  2. Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Linh Trung Ward, Thu Duc Dist, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Dao Nguyen Khoi & Nguyen Thi Thuy Trang

  3. Institute for Computational Science and Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, 700000, Vietnam

    Pham Thi Thao Nhi

  4. College of Technology, Can Tho University, Ninh Kieu Dist, Campus 2, 3/2 Str, Can Tho City, Vietnam

    Tran Van Ty

  5. Institution of Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, People’s Republic of China

    Shibo Fang

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  1. Pham Thi Thao Nhi
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  2. Dao Nguyen Khoi
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  3. Nguyen Thi Thuy Trang
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Contributions

Pham Thi Thao Nhi: methodology; software; formal analysis; writing—review and editing. Dao Nguyen Khoi: conceptualization; methodology; formal analysis; funding acquisition; writing—review and editing; Nguyen Thi Thuy Trang: software; formal analysis; writing—review and editing; Tran Van Ty: software; formal analysis; writing—review and editing; Shibo Fang: methodology, formal analysis, writing—review and editing.

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Correspondence to Dao Nguyen Khoi.

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Nhi, P.T.T., Khoi, D.N., Trang, N.T.T. et al. Hydrological impacts of future climate and land use/cover changes in the Lower Mekong Basin: a case study of the Srepok River Basin, Vietnam. Environ Monit Assess 194 (Suppl 2), 768 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10175-9

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