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The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

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Abstract

Climate changes may have immediate implications for forest productivity and may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions in the future. Quantifying these implications is significant for both scientists and managers. Cunninghamia lanceolata is an important coniferous timber species due to its fast growth and wide distribution in China. This paper proposes a methodology aiming at enhancing the distribution and productivity of C. lanceolata against a background of climate change. First, we simulated the potential distributions and establishment probabilities of C. lanceolata based on a species distribution model. Second, a process-based model, the PnET-II model, was calibrated and its parameterization of water balance improved. Finally, the improved PnET-II model was used to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of C. lanceolata. The simulated NPP and potential distribution were combined to produce an integrated indicator, the estimated total NPP, which serves to comprehensively characterize the productivity of the forest under climate change. The results of the analysis showed that (1) the distribution of C. lanceolata will increase in central China, but the mean probability of establishment will decrease in the 2050s; (2) the PnET-II model was improved, calibrated, and successfully validated for the simulation of the NPP of C. lanceolata in China; and (3) all scenarios predicted a reduction in total NPP in the 2050s, with a markedly lower reduction under the a2 scenario than under the b2 scenario. The changes in NPP suggested that forest productivity will show a large decrease in southern China and a mild increase in central China. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function and could provide a basis for policy-makers to apply adaptive measures and overcome the unfavorable influences of climate change.

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Acknowledgments

This research was funded by the Program of National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) “Global change and environmental risk’s evolution process and its integrated assessment model” (no. 2012CB955402) and the Project of State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology. Special thanks are given to the referees and the editors for their instructive comments, suggestions, and editing for the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, No. 19, XinJieKouWai Street, HaiDian District, Beijing, 100875, People’s Republic of China

    Yupeng Liu, Deyong Yu, Bin Xun, Yun Sun & Ruifang Hao

  2. Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Yupeng Liu, Deyong Yu, Bin Xun, Yun Sun & Ruifang Hao

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  1. Yupeng Liu
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  2. Deyong Yu
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  3. Bin Xun
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Correspondence to Deyong Yu.

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Liu, Y., Yu, D., Xun, B. et al. The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China. Environ Monit Assess 186, 135–149 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-013-3361-6

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