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Responding to Risky Neighbors: Testing for Spatial Spillover Effects for Defensible Space in a Fire-Prone WUI Community

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Abstract

Often, factors that determine the risk of an environmental hazard occur at landscape scales, and risk mitigation requires action by multiple private property owners. How property owners respond to risk mitigation on neighboring lands depends on whether mitigation actions are strategic complements or strategic substitutes. We test for these neighbor interactions with a case study on wildfire risk mitigation on private properties. We use two measures of wildfire risk mitigation—an assessment by a wildfire professional and a self-assessment by homeowners. Taken together, the two assessments provide the first empirical explanation for strategic complements in wildfire risk mitigation and a more complete picture of how homeowners respond to this landscape-scale risk. We find homeowners that mitigate risk on their land are more likely to have neighbors that do the same, and homeowners that fail to mitigate risk are more likely to have neighbors that fail to do so as well. Due to spatial spillovers, motivating a few key residents to take action could reduce risk across the landscape.

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Notes

  1. In the original Latin, “Tua res agitur, paries cum proximus ardet.”

  2. From the viewpoint of individual i, \( \sum\nolimits_{j \ne i} {w_{ij} x_{j} } \) can more generally be thought of as off-site factors that affect risk, for example, accumulated fuels on federal lands, risky power lines, etc.

  3. For discussion on neighbor choices and spatial weights, see Cressie (1993, pp. 384–385), Schabenberger and Gotway (2004, p. 18), Waller and Gotway (2004, pp. 223–225), Fortin and Dale (2005, pp. 113–118), O’Sullivan and Unwin (2003, pp. 193–194), and Banerjee et al. (2004, pp. 70–71).

  4. We tested several specifications and cut-off points for vegetation distances. Ultimately, the results were very similar regardless of specification.

  5. Note the difference in timeframes. Our survey asks about the chances of wildfire and damages during the survey year. Olsen et al. (2017) ask about the chances of wildfire and damages within the next 5 years.

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Acknowledgements

This work has been supported in part by funds from the National Fire Plan, in partnership with the US Forest Service, US Bureau of Land Management, and the West Region Wildfire Council. We are grateful for the help, kindness, and support of firefighters and residents of Log Hill Mesa.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, 240 W. Prospect Rd., Fort Collins, CO, 80526, USA

    Travis Warziniack & Patricia Champ

  2. US Geological Survey, Fort Collins, CO, USA

    James Meldrum

  3. Institute of Behavior Science, University of Colorado – Boulder, Boulder, USA

    Hannah Brenkert-Smith

  4. Bureau of Land Management, Billings, MT, USA

    Christopher M. Barth

  5. West Region Wildfire Council, Montrose, USA

    Lilia C. Falk

Authors
  1. Travis Warziniack
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Travis Warziniack.

Appendix 1. Wildfire hazard structure survey used by West Region Wildfire Council

Appendix 1. Wildfire hazard structure survey used by West Region Wildfire Council

Access

 

 Structure address posted at driveway entrance?

 

  Posted and reflective

0

  Posted, NOT reflective

5

  Not visible from road

15

 Ingress and Egress

 

  Two or more roads in/out

0

  One road in/out

10

 Width of driveway

 

  Greater than 24 feet wide

0

  Between 20 and 24 feet wide

5

  Less than 20 feet wide

10

Vegetation and topography

 

 Distance to dangerous topography

 

  More than 150 feet

0

  50–150 feet

30

  Less than 50 feet

75

 Predominant background fuel type in neighborhood

 

  Light (grasses, forbs, tundra)

25

  Moderate (light brush, small trees)

50

  Heavy (dense brush or timber, down and dead fuel)

75

 Defensible space (CSFS 6.302 Standards)

 

  More than 150 feet

0

  30–150 feet

50

  10–30 feet

75

  Less than 10 feet

100

Structure

 

 Roofing material

 

  Tile, metal, asphalt

0

  Wood (shake shingle)

200

 Building exterior

 

  Non-combustible siding (stucco, cement/Masonite)

0

  Log, heavy timbers

20

  Wood, vinyl, or wood shake

60

 Location of woodpiles and combustibles (light flashy vegetation, shrubs, trees, trash)

 

  None of more than 30 feet from structure

0

  10–30 feet from structure

10

  Less than 10 feet from structure

30

 Balcony, deck, or porch

 

  None/non-combustible

0

  Combustible material

20

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Warziniack, T., Champ, P., Meldrum, J. et al. Responding to Risky Neighbors: Testing for Spatial Spillover Effects for Defensible Space in a Fire-Prone WUI Community. Environ Resource Econ 73, 1023–1047 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-018-0286-0

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