Abstract
Aim
To explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade.
Methods
Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of PC. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to identify the temporal trends in the incidence of PC. Then, a two-factor model was constructed using the Poisson log-linear model, and a three-factor model was constructed using the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was also used to predict the age-standardized global incidence rate of PC and age-standardized new PC cases from 2020 to 2030.
Results
Overall, the DALY rate, ASMR, ASIR, and ASPR all increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR in males increased from 6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 7.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 8.2 per 100,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, the ASIR in females rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.7 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 6.3 per 100,000 by 2030. The age effect on the incidence of PC showed sharp increasing trends from 40 to 79 years. The period effect continuously increased with advancing periods, but the cohort effect showed substantial decreasing trends.
Conclusions
The age and period effect on the incidence of PC presented increasing trends, while the cohort effect showed decreasing trends. All indicators of the global burden of PC are increasing in both males and females, and the ASIR is predicted to rise at an alarming rate by 2030. Thus, timely screening and intervention are recommended, especially for earlier birth cohorts at high risk.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data are available from the GBD Results Tool of the GHDx (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool).
References
Goral V. Pancreatic cancer: pathogenesis and diagnosis. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2015;16:5619–5624. https://doi.org/10.7314/apjcp.2015.16.14.5619.
Ansari D, Tingstedt B, Andersson B et al. Pancreatic cancer: yesterday, today and tomorrow. Future Oncology. 2016;12:1929–1946. https://doi.org/10.2217/fon-2016-0010.
Zhao Z, Liu W. Pancreatic cancer: a review of risk factors, diagnosis, and treatment. Technol Cancer Res Treat. 2020;19:1533033820962117. https://doi.org/10.1177/1533033820962117.
Yuan J, Wei AL, Li A, Fu MR. Symptom evaluation in pancreatic cancer detection. Asian J Surg. 2021;44:1589–1591. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asjsur.2021.08.028.
Cai J, Chen H, Lu M et al. Advances in the epidemiology of pancreatic cancer: trends, risk factors, screening, and prognosis. Cancer Lett. 2021;520:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canlet.2021.06.027.
Amini M, Azizmohammad Looha M, Rahimi Pordanjani S, Asadzadeh Aghdaei H, Pourhoseingholi MA. Global long-term trends and spatial cluster analysis of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality over a 30-year period using the global burden of disease study 2019 data. PLoS ONE. 2023;18:0288755. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0288755.
World Health Organization IA for R on C. Global Cancer Observatory. Accessed December 30, 2023. https://gco.iarc.fr/
Ramai D, Smith ER, Wang Y et al. Epidemiology and socioeconomic impact of pancreatic cancer: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 1990–2019. Dig Dis Sci. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10620-024-08292-1.
Vos T, Lim SS, Abbafati C et al. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 2020;396:1204–1222. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30925-9.
Kim HJ, Fay MP, Feuer EJ, Midthune DN. Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates. Stat Med. 2000;19:335–351. https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(20000215)19:3%3c335::aid-sim336%3e3.0.co;2-z.
Yang Y, Schulhofer-Wohl S, Fu WJ, Land KC. The intrinsic estimator for age-period-cohort analysis: what it is and how to use it. Am J Sociol. 2008;113:1697–1736. https://doi.org/10.1086/587154.
Liu Z, Xu K, Jiang Y et al. Global trend of aetiology-based primary liver cancer incidence from 1990 to 2030: a modelling study. Int J Epidemiol. 2021;50:128–142. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaa196.
Riebler A, Held L. Projecting the future burden of cancer: Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations. Biom J. 2017;59:531–549. https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.201500263.
Liu W, Yang C, Chen Z et al. Global death burden and attributable risk factors of peripheral artery disease by age, sex, SDI regions, and countries from 1990 to 2030: Results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Atherosclerosis. 2022;347:17–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2022.03.002.
GBD 2017 Pancreatic Cancer Collaborators. The global, regional, and national burden of pancreatic cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2019;4:934–947. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(19)30347-4
Linneberg A, Gonzalez-Quintela A, Vidal C et al. Genetic determinants of both ethanol and acetaldehyde metabolism influence alcohol hypersensitivity and drinking behaviour among Scandinavians. Clin Exp Allergy. 2010;40:123–130. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2222.2009.03398.x.
Incio J, Liu H, Suboj P et al. Obesity-induced inflammation and desmoplasia promote pancreatic cancer progression and resistance to chemotherapy. Cancer Discov. 2016;6:852–869. https://doi.org/10.1158/2159-8290.CD-15-1177.
Kirkegård J, Mortensen FV, Cronin-Fenton D. Chronic pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Am J Gastroenterol. 2017;112:1366–1372. https://doi.org/10.1038/ajg.2017.218.
Cui Y, Andersen DK. Diabetes and pancreatic cancer. Endocr Relat Cancer. 2012;19:F9–F26. https://doi.org/10.1530/ERC-12-0105.
Liu X, Yu C, Bi Y, Zhang ZJ. Trends and age-period-cohort effect on incidence and mortality of prostate cancer from 1990 to 2017 in China. Public Health. 2019;172:70–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2019.04.016.
US Preventive Services Task Force, Owens DK, Davidson KW et al. Screening for pancreatic cancer: US preventive services task force reaffirmation recommendation statement. JAMA. 2019;322:438–444. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2019.10232.
Canto MI, Hruban RH, Fishman EK, et al. Frequent detection of pancreatic lesions in asymptomatic high-risk individuals. Gastroenterology. 2012;142:796–804; quiz e14–15. doi:https://doi.org/10.1053/j.gastro.2012.01.005
Yamashita Y, Shimokawa T, Napoléon B et al. Value of contrast-enhanced harmonic endoscopic ultrasonography with enhancement pattern for diagnosis of pancreatic cancer: a meta-analysis. Dig Endosc. 2019;31:125–133. https://doi.org/10.1111/den.13290.
Yang Y. Trends in US adult chronic disease mortality, 1960–1999: age, period, and cohort variations. Demography. 2008;45:387–416. https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0000.
Cohen AK, Syme SL. Education: a missed opportunity for public health intervention. Am J Public Health. 2013;103:997–1001. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2012.300993.
Funding
The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.
Ethics declarations
Competing interest
The authors of this manuscript declare that they have no conflicts of interest to disclose.
Ethical approval
Not applicable.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
An, H., Dai, H. & Liu, X. Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030. Dig Dis Sci (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10620-024-08465-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10620-024-08465-y