Abstract
Extensive use of groundwater in the rice–wheat cropping system of northwest India has resulted in groundwater depletion at an alarming rate of 33–88 cm per year over the past 2–3 decades. Projected climate change is likely to affect crop water demand, groundwater withdrawal, and replenishment in future. A modeling study was undertaken to simulate the impact of climate change on groundwater resources under existing rice–wheat cropping system and with revised crop management strategies in the Karnal district of Northwest India. Different cop management strategies considered are marginal shift in sowing dates of rice and wheat, and fractional diversification of rice area to maize. MODFLOW software driven by the projected climate change scenarios under four representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were used for simulating groundwater behavior in the study area under business as usual and proposed crop management strategies. Simulation results indicated 4.3–61.5 m (28.9–291.2%) additional decline in groundwater levels in different zones of the study area under different RCPs by the end century (2070–2099) period in relation to the reference groundwater level of year 2015 under the existing sowing dates of 15 June for rice and 15 November for wheat. Maintaining rice sowing date at 15 June but advancing wheat sowing date by 10 days can reduce groundwater decline by 9.8–14.4%, 14.4–19.6%, and 18.1–25.8% under different RCPs by the end of early (2010–2039), mid (2040–2069), and end (2070–2099) century periods, respectively, vis-à-vis prevailing sowing dates. Replacing 20%, 30%, and 40% rice area with maize in rice–wheat system is likely to reduce groundwater decline by 7.1 (24.9%), 10.1 (35.3%), and 13.8 m (48.5%), respectively, in comparison to projected end century (2099) decline of 28.5 m under the prevailing sowing dates of rice–wheat. However, declining groundwater trend of rice–wheat would be reversed with the replacement of 80% rice area under maize crop. Simulation results suggest that specific crop management strategies can potentially moderate groundwater decline in the study area under the envisaged climate change.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
References
Abeysingha NS, Islam A, Singh M (2020) Assessment of climate change impact on flow regimes over the Gomti River basin under IPCC AR5 climate change scenarios. J Water Cli Chang 11(1):303–326. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.039
Ashfaq M, Rastogi D, Mei R et al (2017) Sources of errors in the simulation of south Asian summer monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs. Clim Dyn 49:193–223. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3337-7
Asoka A, Wada Y, Fishman R, Mishra V (2018) Strong linkage between precipitation intensity and monsoon season groundwater recharge in India. Geophys Res Lett 45:5536–5544. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078466
Bal KP, Ramachandran A, Kandasamy P, Thirumurugan P, Geetha R, Bhaskaran B (2016) Climate change projections over India by a downscaling approach using PRECIS. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 52:353–369. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-016-00
Bhattarai N, Pollack A, Lobell DB, Fishman R, Singh B, Dar A, Jain M (2021) The impact of groundwater depletion on agricultural production in India. Environ Res Lett 16:085003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac10de
CGWB (2013) Ground Water Information Booklet, Karnal District, Haryana. Central Ground Water Board Report (CGWB), Ministry of Water Resources, New Delhi, India
Dangar S, Asoka A, Mishr V (2021) Causes and implications of groundwater depletion in India: a review. J Hydrol 596:126103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126103
Dari B, Sihi D, Bal SK, Kunwar S (2017) Performance of direct-seeded rice under various dates of sowing and irrigation regimes in semi-arid region of India. Paddy Water Environ 15:395–401
Davis KF, Chiarelli DD, Rulli MC, Chhatre A, Richter B, Singh D, DeFries R (2018) Alternative cereals can improve water use and nutrient supply in India. Sci Adv 4:eaao1108
Dickerson-Lange SE, Mitchell R (2014) Modeling the effects of climate change projections on streamflow in the Nooksack River basin. Northwest Washington, Hydrol Process 28(20):5236–5250. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10012
Doulabian S, Golian S, Toosi AS, Murphy C (2021) Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios. J Water Cli Chang 12(1):166–184. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.114
Dubey R, Pathak H, Chakrabarti B, Singh S, Gupta D K, Harit R C (2020) Impact of terminal heat stress on wheat yield in India and options for adaptation. Agric. Syst. 181.
GEC (2009) Ground water resource estimation methodology Report of the Ground Water Resource Estimation Committee, Ministry of water resources government of India, New Delhi. http://cgwb.gov.in/documents/gec97.pdf
Greve P, Seneviratne SI (2015) Assessment of future changes in water availability and aridity. Geophys Res Lett 42:5493–5499
Hanson RT, Flint LE, Flint AL, Dettinger AL, Faunt MDCC, Cayan D, Schmid W (2012) A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes. Water Resour Res 48:W00L08. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010774
Hunt RJ, Fienstin DT (2012) MODFLOW-NWT: robust handling of dry cells using a Newton formulation of MODFLOW-2005. Groundwater 50(5):1–5. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6584.2012.00976.x
Islam A, Ahuja LR, Garcia LA, Ma L, Saseendran AS, Trout TJ (2012a) Modeling the impacts of climate change on irrigated corn production in the Central Great Plains. Agric Water Manage 110:94–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2012.04.004
Islam A, Ahuja LR, Garcia LA, Ma L, Saseesndran AS (2012b) Modeling the effect of elevated CO2 and climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semi-arid Central Great Plains. Trans ASABE 55(6):2135–2146
Jalota SK, Arora VK (2002) Model-based assessment of water balance components under different cropping systems in north-west India. Agric Water Manage 57:75–87
Jalota SK, Jain AK, Vashisht BB (2018) Minimize water deficit in wheat crop to ameliorate groundwater decline in rice-wheat cropping system. Agric Water Manage 208:261–267
Jat HS, Datta A, Choudhary M, Sharma PC, Jat ML (2021) Conservation agriculture: factors and drivers of adoption and scalable innovative practices in Indo-Gangetic plains of India – a review. Int J Agric Sustain 19(1):40–55. https://doi.org/10.1080/14735903.2020.1817655
Joshi SK, Gupta S, Sinha R, Densmore AL, RaiS P, Shekhar S, Mason PJ, vanDijkd WM (2021) Strongly heterogeneous patterns of groundwater depletion in North western India. J Hydrol 598:126492. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126492
Kaur S, Jalota SK, Singh KG, Lubana PPS, Aggarwal (2015) Assessing climate change impact on root-zone water balance and groundwater levels. J Water Cli Chang 6(3):436–448
Kaushika GS, Himanshu A, Hari Prasad KS (2019) Analysis of climate change effects on crop water availability for paddy, wheat and berseem. Agric Water Manage 225:105734. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2019.105734
Kitoh A, Endo H, Krishna Kumar K, Cavalcanti IFA, Goswami P, Zhou T (2013) Monsoons in a changing world: a regional perspective in a global context. J Geophys Res 118:3053–3065. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50258
Konapala G, Mishra AK, Wada Y, Mann EM (2020) Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation. Nat Commun 11:3044
Kumar S, Narjary B, Kumar K, Jat HS, Kamra SK, Yadav RK (2019) Developing soil matric potential based irrigation strategies of direct seeded rice for improving yield and water productivity. Agric Water Manage 215:8–15
Kumar S, Vivekanand NB, Kumar N, Kaur S, Yadav RK, Kamra SK (2020) A GIS-based methodology for assigning a flux boundary to a numerical groundwater flow model and its effect on model calibration. J Geol Soc India 96:507–512. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12594-020-1589-7
Kundu S, Khare D, Mondal A (2017) Future changes in rainfall, temperature and reference evapotranspiration in the central India by least square support vector machine. Geosci Front 8:583–596
Lauffenburger ZH, Gurdak JJ, Hobza C, Woodward D, Wolf C (2018) Irrigated agriculture and future climate change effects on groundwater recharge, northern High Plains aquifer, USA. Agric Water Manage 204:69–80
Lee SY, Ryan ME, Hamlet AF, Palen WJ, Lawler JJ, Halabisky M (2015) Projecting the hydrologic impacts of climate change on Montane wetlands. PLoS ONE 10(9):e0136385. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0136385
Lobell D, Sibley A, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio J (2012) Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nature Clim Change 2:186–189. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1356
Mali SS, Shirsath PB, Islam A (2021) A high-resolution assessment of climate change impact on water footprints of cereal production in India. Sci Rep 11:8715. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88223-6
McDonald MG, Harbaugh AW, 1988. A modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater flow model. U.S. Govt. Print. Off.
Meena H N, Singh SK, Meena M S, Jorwal M (2021) Crop diversification in rice-wheat cropping system with maize in Haryana Extension Bulletin-2/2021, ICAR- Agricultural Technology Application Research Institute, Zone-II, Jodhpur, Page No. 1–12. https://krishi.icar.gov.in/jspui/bitstream/123456789/46075/1/Crop%20Diversification%20in%20Rice-Wheat.pdf
Minhas PS, Yadav RK, Lal K, Chaturvedi RK (2015) Effect of long-term irrigation with wastewater on growth, biomass production and water use by Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus tereticornis Sm.) planted at variable stocking density. Agric Water Manage 152:151–160
Minhas PS, Jalota SK, Arora VK, Jain AK, Vashist KK, Choudhary OP, Kukal SS, Vashisht BB (2010) Managing water resources for ensuing sustainable agriculture: situational analysis and options for Punjab. Research Bulletin 2/2010, Punjab Agricultural University Ludhiana-141 004 (India).
Mishra AK, Özger M, Singh VP (2010) Association between uncertainties in meteorological variables and water-resources planning for the state of Texas. J Hydrologic Eng 16:984–999
Narjary B, Kumar S, Kamra SK, Bundela DS, Sharma DK (2014) Impact of rainfall variability on groundwater resources and opportunities of artificial recharge structure to reduce its exploitation in fresh groundwater zones of Haryana. Curr Sci 107:1305–1312
Narjary B, Kumar S, Meena MD, Kamra SK, Sharma DK (2021) Effects of shallow saline groundwater table depth and evaporative flux on soil salinity dynamics using Hydrus-1D. Agric Res 10:105–115. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40003-020-00484-1
Niraula R, Meixner T, Dominguez F, Rodell M, Ajami H, Gochis D, Castro C (2017) How might recharge change under projected climate change in western US? Geophys Res Lett 44(20):10407–10418. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075421
Polade SD, Pierce DW, Cayan DR, Gershunov A, Dettinger MD (2014) The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes. Sci Rep 4:4364
Raes D, Steduto P, Hsiao T, Fereres E (2009) AquaCrop Reference Manual.FAO – Land and Water Division, Rome, Italy
Rakshit S, Singh N P, Khandekar N, Rai P K (2021) Diversification of cropping system in Punjab and Haryana through cultivation of maize, pulses and oilseeds. Policy paper. ICAR-Indian Institute of Maize Research, Ludhiana. p. 37. Available at https://iimr.icar.gov.in/publications-category/technical-bulletins/ (accessed on 12 Feb 2022)
Rodell M, Velicogna I, Famiglietti JS (2009) Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India. Nature 460:999–1002. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08238
Rosencranz A, Puthucherril TG, Tripathi S, Gupta S (2021) Groundwater management in India’s Punjab and Haryana: a case of too little and too late? J Energy Nat Res Law. https://doi.org/10.1080/02646811.2021.1956181
Scibek J, Allen DM (2006) Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels. Water Resour Res 42:W11405. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004742
Shaban A, Sharma RN (2007) Water consumption patterns in domestic households in major cities. Econo Politi Weekly 42(23):2190–2197
Šimůnek J, Jacques D, Šejna M, van Genuchten MTh(2012) The HP2 program for HYDRUS (2D/3D): a coupled code for simulating two-dimensional variably-saturated water flow, heat transport, and biogeochemistry in porous media, version 1.0, PC Progress, Prague, Czech Republic
Singh K (2009) Act to save groundwater in Punjab: its impact on water table, electricity subsidy and environment. Agric Econ Res Rev 22:365–386
Singh B, Humphreys E, Gaydon DS, Yadav S (2015) Options for increasing the productivity of the rice–wheat system of north-west India while reducing groundwater depletion. Part 2. Is conservation agriculture the answer? Field Crops Res 173:81–94
Siwach S (2019) Haryana: farmers in 7 paddy-growing districts agree to switch to maize under govt scheme to save groundwater. The Indian Express, assessed on 9th February 2022, available at (https://indianexpress.com/article/india/haryana-farmers-in-7-paddy-growing-districts-agree-to-switch-to-maize-under-govt-scheme-to-save-groundwater-5797938/).
Statistical Abstract of Haryana 2015–16 (2017) Department of Economic and Statistical Analysis, Haryana.
Switzman H, Salem B, Gad M, Adeel Z, Coulibaly P (2018) Conservation planning as an adaptive strategy for climate change and groundwater depletion in Wadi El Natrun. Egypt Hydrogeo J 26:689–703
Thomas BF, Famiglietti JS (2019) Identifying climate-induced groundwater depletion in GRACE observations. Sci Rep 9:4124. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-40155-y
Tohver IM, Hamlet AF, Lee SY (2014) Impacts of 21st-century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America. J Am Water Resour Assoc 50:1461–1476
Treidel H, Martin-Bordes J J, Gurdak J J (2012) Climate change effects on groundwater resources: a global synthesis of findings and recommendations. International Association of Hydrogeologists (IAH) – International Contributions to Hydrogeology.Taylor& Francis publishing, 414p.
Vanuytrecht E, Raes D, Steduto P, Hsiao TC, Fereres E, Heng LK, Vila MG, Moreno PM (2014) AquaCrop: FAO’s crop water productivity and yield response model. Environ Modelling Soft 62:351–360
Walton DB, Sun F, Hall A, Capps S (2015) A hybrid dynamical–statistical downscaling technique. Part I: development and validation of the technique. J Clim 28:4597–4616. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00196.1
Wood AW, Maurer EP, Kumar A, Lettenmaier DP (2002) Long range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern US. J Geophys Res 107(D20):4429
Xiang Z, Baileya RT, Nozari S, Husain Z, Kisekka I, Sharda V, Gowda P (2020) DSSAT-MODFLOW: a new modeling framework for exploring groundwater conservation strategies in irrigated areas. Agric Water Manag 232:106033
Zaveri E, Grogan DS, Fisher-Vanden K, Frolking S, Lammers RB, Wrenn DH, Prusevich A, Nicholas RE (2016) Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change. Environ Res Lett 11:084005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084005
Zhang Q, Shen Z, Xu C-Y, Sun P, Hu P, Chunyang He C (2019) A new statistical downscaling approach for global evaluation of the CMIP5 precipitation outputs: model development and application. Sci Total Environ 690:1048–1067. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.310
Acknowledgements
Authors acknowledge the Director, ICAR-CSSRI, Karnal (research article/23/2021) for extending logistics support during execution of this study.
Funding
This research was funded by Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) through National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) program.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kumar, S., Narjary, B., Vivekanand et al. Modeling climate change impact on groundwater and adaptation strategies for its sustainable management in the Karnal district of Northwest India. Climatic Change 173, 3 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03393-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03393-0