Abstract
Water resources, and in particular run-off, are significantly affected by climate variability. At present, there are few examples of how the water management sector integrates information about changing intra-annual climate conditions in a systematic manner in developing countries. This paper, using the case study of Cape Town in the Western Cape, South Africa, identifies processes and products to facilitate increased uptake of seasonal climate forecasts among water resource managers. Results suggest that existing seasonal forecasts do not focus enough on specific users’ needs. In order to increase uptake, forecasts need to include information on the likely impact of precipitation variability on runoff and water availability. More opportunities are also needed for those with climate knowledge to interact with water resource managers, particularly in the developing country context where municipal managers’ capacity is strained. Although there are challenges that need to be overcome in using probabilistic climate information, seasonal forecast information tailored to the needs of water resource planners has the potential to support annual planning and is therefore a means of adapting to climate change.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Archer ERM (2003) Identifying underserved end-user groups in the provision of climate. Inf Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84(11):1525–1532
Axel J, Céron P (2007) Griffiths J (ed) Elements for life. Tudor Rose, London, pp 70–71
Blench R (1999) Seasonal climatic forecasting: who can use it and how should it be disseminated? Natural Resource Perspectives 47. Overseas Development Institute, London
Boko M, Niang I, Nyong A, Vogel C, Githeko A, Medany M, Osman-Elasha B, Tabo R, Yanda P (2007) Africa climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 433–467
Callahan BM, Miles EL, Fluharty DL (1999) Policy implications of climate forecasts for water resources management in the Pacific Northwest. Policy Sci 32(3):269–293
Carbone GJ, Dow K (2005) Water resource management and drought forecasts in South Carolina. J Am Water Resour Assoc 41(1):145–155
Chiew FHS, Zhou SL, McMahon TA (2003) Use of seasonal streamflow forecasts in water resources management. J Hydrol 270(1–2):135–144
Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon W-T, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change. The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
City of Cape Town (2006) Draft water services development plan for City of Cape Town 2006/07.
Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning, Western Cape (DEA&DP) (2007) A climate change response strategy and action plan for the Western Cape. Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning, Western Cape (DEA&DP), Cape Town
DWAF (Department of Water Affairs and Forestry) (1994) Water supply and sanitation policy—White Paper Water—an indivisible national asset. DWAF, Cape Town
Dziegielewski B, Bik T (2004) Technical assistance needs and research priorities for small community water systems. J Contemp Water Res Edu 128:13–20
Everingham YL, Muchow RC, Stone RC, Inman-Bamber NG, Singels A, Bezuidenhout CN (2002) Enhanced risk management and decision-making capability across the sugarcane industry value chain based on seasonal climate forecasts. Agric Syst 74:459–477
Georgakakos AP, Yao H (2001) Value of climate forecasts for the management of Lake Lanier. Georgia Water Resources Institute, Atlanta
Hammer GL, Hansen JW, Phillips JG, Mjelde JW, Hill H, Love A, Potgieter A (2001) Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture. Agric Syst 70:515–553
Hartmann HC, Bales R, Sorooshian S (2002) Weather, climate and hydrologic forecasting for the US Southwest: a survey. Clim Res 21(3):239–258
Hellmuth M, Moorhead A, Thomson MC, Williams J (eds) (2007) Climate risk management in Africa: learning from practice. IRI, Columbia University, New York
Henderson-Sellers A (1998) Climate whispers: media communication about climate change. Clim Change 40:421–456
Hewitson B (2007) Regional climate change scenarios for the Western Cape Province. Presentation to the Western Cape Government Climate Change Conference
Hudson J, Vogel C (2003) The use of seasonal forecasts by livestock farmers in South Africa. In: O’Brien K, Vogel C (eds) Coping with climate variability: the use of seasonal forecasts in Southern Africa. Ashgate, Aldershot, pp 75–96
Ingram KT, Roncoli MC, Kirshen PH (2002) Opportunities and constraints for farmers of west Africa to use seasonal forecasts with Burkina Faso as a case study. Agric Syst 74:331–349
Jaglin S (2004) Water delivery and metropolitan institution building in Cape Town: the problems of urban integration. Urban Forum 15(3):231–253
Johnston PA (2008) The uptake and utility of seasonal forecasting products for commercial maize farmers in South Africa. Ph.D. thesis, University of Cape Town
Johnston PA, Archer E, Vogel C, Bezuidenhout C, Tennant W, Kuschke R (2004) Review of seasonal forecasting in South Africa: producer to end-user. Clim Res 28(1):67–82
Johnston PA, Ziervogel G, Matthew M (2007) The uptake and usefulness of weather and climate information among water resource managers. Papers Appl Geog Conf 30:380–389
Klopper E, Bartman A (2003) Forecasts and commercial agriculture: a survey of user needs in South Africa. In: O’Brien K, Vogel C (eds) Coping with climate variability: the use of seasonal climate forecasts in Southern Africa. Ashgate, Hampshire, pp 170–182
Landman WA, Mason SJ, Tyson PD, Tennant WJ (2001) Statistical downscaling of GCM simulations to streamflow. J Hydrol 252:221–236
Midgley G, Chapman A, Hewitson B, Johnston P, De Wit M, Ziervogel G, Mukheibir P, Van Niekerk L, Tadross M, Van Wilgen B, Kgope B, Morant P, Theron A, Scholes R, Forsyth G (2005) Western Cape report: a status quo, vulnerability and adaptation assessment of the physical and socio-economic effects of climate. http://wwwercuctacza/publications/wcape_climate_change_impacts_11pdf
Mukheibir P (2007) Qualitative assessment of municipal water resource management strategies under climate impacts: the case of the Northern Cape, South Africa. Water SA 33(4), 575–581
Murphy SJ, Washington R, Downing TE, Martin RV, Ziervogel G, Preston A, Todd M, Butterfield R, Briden J (2001) Seasonal forecasting for climate hazards: prospects and responses. Nat Hazards 23:171–196
O’Brien KL, Vogel HC (eds) (2003) Coping with climate variability: the use of seasonal climate forecasts in Southern Africa. Ashgate, Aldershot
O’Connor RE, Yarnal B, Dow C, Jocoy CL, Carbone GJ (2005) Feeling at risk matters: water managers and the decision to use forecasts. Risk Anal 25(5):1265–1275
OneWorld Sustainable Investments (2007) Western Cape climate change response strategy and action plan. Provincial Government of the Western Cape Department of Environmental Affairs, Cape Town
Patt AG, Ogallo L, Hellmuth M (2007) Learning from ten years of climate outlook forums in Africa. Science 318:49–50
Power S, Sadler B, Nicholls N (2005) The influence of climate science on water management in Western Australia. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 86(6):839–844
Pulwarty RS, Redmond K (1997) Climate and salmon restoration in the Columbia River Basin: the role and usability of seasonal forecasts. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78(3):381–397
Rayner S, Lach D, Ingram H (2005) Weather forecasts are for wimps: why water resource managers do not use climate forecasts. Clim Change 69(2–3):197–227
Ritchie JW, Zammit C, Beal D (2004) Can seasonal climate forecasting assist in catchment water management decision-making? A case study of the border rivers catchment in Australia. Agric Ecosyst Environ 104(3):553–565
Schulze RE (2005) Setting the scene: the current hydroclimatic “Landscape” in Southern Africa. In: Schulze RE (ed) Climate change and water resources in Southern Africa: studies on scenarios, impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation. Pretoria, Water Research Commission WRC Report 1430/1/05: 6: 83–94
Stern PC, Easterling WE (eds) (1999) Making climate forecasts matter. National Academy, Washington, DC
Stone RC, Meinke H (2006) Weather, climate, and farmers: an overview. Meteorol Appl 13:7–20
Thomas DSG, Twyman C, Osbahr H, Hewitson B (2007) Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa. Clim Change 83:301–322
Wall K (2006) An investigation of the franchising option for water services operation in South Africa. Water SA 32(2):265–268
Washington R, Harrison M, Conway D, Black E, Challinor A, Grimes D, Jones R, Morse A, Kay G, Todd M (2006) African climate change: taking the shorter route. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87:1355–1366
Yarnal B, Heasley AL, O’Connor RE, Dow K, Jocoy CL (2006) The potential use of climate forecasts by community water system managers. Land Use and Water Resources Research 6. http://wwwluwrrcom/contentshtml
Ziervogel G, Taylor A (2008) Feeling stressed: integrating climate adaptation with other priorities in South Africa. Environment 2(50):32–41
Ziervogel G, Bharwani S, Downing T (2005) Adapting to climate variability: pumpkins, people and policy. Nat Resour Forum 30(4):294–305
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ziervogel, G., Johnston, P., Matthew, M. et al. Using climate information for supporting climate change adaptation in water resource management in South Africa. Climatic Change 103, 537–554 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9771-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9771-3