Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Integrated analysis of risks of coastal flooding and cliff erosion under scenarios of long term change

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The risks to human populations in coastal areas are changing due to climate and socio-economic changes, and these trends are predicted to accelerate during the twenty-first century. To understand these changing risks, and the resulting choices and pathways to successful management and adaptation, broad-scale integrated assessment is essential. Due to their complexity the two risks of flooding and erosion are usually managed independently, yet frequently they are interconnected by longshore exchange of sediments and the resulting broad scale morphological system behaviour. In order to generate new insights into the effects of climate change and coastal management practises on coastal erosion and flood risk, we present an integrated assessment of 72 km of shoreline over the twenty-first century on the East Anglian coast of England which is a site of significant controversy about how to manage coastal flood and erosion risks over the twenty-first century. A coupled system of hydrodynamic, morphological, reliability and socio-economic models has been developed for the analysis, implemented under scenarios of coastal management, climate and socio-economic change. The study is unique in coastal management terms because of the large spatial scale and extended temporal scale over which the analysis is quantified. This study for the first time quantifies what has for some years been argued qualitatively: the role of sediments released from cliff erosion in protecting neighbouring low-lying land from flooding. The losses and benefits are expressed using the common currency of economic risk. The analysis demonstrates that over the twenty-first century, flood risk in the study area is expected to be an order of magnitude greater than erosion risk. Climate and socio-economic change and coastal management policy have a significant influence on flood risk. This study demonstrates that the choices concerning coastal management are profound, and there are clear tradeoffs between erosion and flood impacts.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bates PD, De Roo APJ (2000) A simple raster-based model for floodplain inundation. J Hydrol 236:54–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bates PD, Dawson RJ, Hall JW, Horritt MS, Nicholls RJ, Wicks J, Hassan MAAM (2005) Simplified two-dimensional modelling of coastal flooding for risk assessment and planning. Coast Eng 52(9):793–810

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bouws E, Jannink D, Komen GJ (1996) The increasing wave height in the North Atlantic Ocean. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(10):2275–2277

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown I, Jude S, Koukoulas S, Nicholls R, Dickson M, Walkden M (2006) Dynamic simulation and visualisation of coastal erosion. Comput Environ Urban Syst 30:840–860

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bruun P (1962) Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion. Proc ASCE J Waterw Harb Div 88:117–130

    Google Scholar 

  • Burgess K, Jay H, Nicholls RJ, Green C, Penning-Rowsell EC (2007) Assessment of future coastal erosion risk. In: Thorne C, Evans E, Penning-Rowsell EC (eds) Future flooding and coastal erosion risks. Thomas Telford, London

    Google Scholar 

  • CERC (1984) Shore protection manual. US Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station Coastal Engineering Research Centre, Vicksburg

  • Chang S-C, Evans G (1992) Source of sediment and sediment transport on the East Coast of England: significant or coincidental phenomena? Mar Geol 107:283–288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Church JA, Gregory JM, Huybrechts P, Kuhn M, Lambeck K, Nhuan MT, Qin D, Woodworth PL (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • CIRIA (1986) Performance of sea walls: technical note 126, CIRIA, London

  • CIRIA and CUR (1991) Manual on the use of rock in coastal and shoreline engineering. CIRIA Special Publication 83/CUR Report 154. CIRIA, London

  • Clayton KM (1989) Sediment input from the Norfolk Cliffs, Eastern England—a century of coast protection and its effect. J Coast Res 5:433–442

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooper N, Bray M, Carter D, Barber P (2002) Shoreline management plans: a national review and engineering perspective. Proc Inst Civ Eng Water Marit Eng 154(3):221–228

    Google Scholar 

  • Dawson RJ, Hall JW (2006) Adaptive importance sampling for risk analysis of complex infrastructure systems. Proc R Soc A 462(2075):3343–3362

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DCLG (2006) Planning policy statement 25: development and flood risk. TSO, London

  • DEFRA (2001) Shoreline management plans: a guide for coastal defence authorities. June 2001

  • DEFRA (2004) Making space for water: developing a new government strategy for flood and coastal erosion risk management in England. A consultation exercise. http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/policy/strategy.htm. July 2004

  • DEFRA (2005) Taking forward a new Government strategy for flood and coastal erosion risk management in England. First government response to the autumn 2004 Making space for water consultation exercise. http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/policy/strategy/1stres.pdf

  • DEFRA (2006) Shoreline management plan guidance—volume 1: aims and requirements volume 2: procedures. http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/pubs/smp/revisedsmpguidancefinal.pdf. March 2006

  • Dickson ME, Walkden MJA, Hall JW (2007) Systemic impacts of climate change on an eroding coastal region over the twenty-first century. Clim Change 84(2):141–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dixon MJ, Tawn JA (1997) Estimates of extreme sea conditions. Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory. Report 112, p 217

    Google Scholar 

  • DTI (2002) Foresight futures 2002: revised scenarios and guidance. UK Department of Trade and Industry, London

  • Eastman JR, Kyem PAK, Toledano J, Jin W (1993) GIS and decision making. In: Explorations in geographic information systems technology, vol 4. United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), Geneva

  • English Nature, DEFRA, Environment Agency, Natural Environment Research Council and LIFE-EU (2003) Winterton Dunes, Coastal Habitat Management Plan, April 2003

  • Environment Agency (1996) East Anglian sea defence survey. Environment Agency, Peterborough

  • Environment Agency (2005) Cleaner coasts, healthier seas. Working for a better marine environment: our strategy for 2005–2011. http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/subjects/conservation/208776/1209976

  • European Commission (2000) Communication from the commission to the council and the European parliament on integrated coastal zone management: a strategy for Europe. Commission of the European Communities, COM 2000, 547 final, Brussels

  • Eurosion (2004) Living with coastal erosion in Europe: sediment and space for sustainability: major findings and policy recommendations of the EUROSION project. European Commission, Directorate General Environment, Service contract B4-3301/2001/329175/MAR/B3

  • Frew P, Guest S (1997) Overstrand coast protection scheme. In: Proc. MAFF conference of river and coastal engineers. MAFF, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Gregory JM, Church JA, Boer GJ, Dixon KW, Flato GM, Jackett DR, Lowe JA, O’Farrell SP, Roeckner E, Russell GL, Stouffer RJ, Winton M (2001) Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100. Clim Dyn 18:225–240

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grieve H (1959) The Great Tide: the story of the 1953 flood disaster in Essex. Essex County Council, 833 pp

  • GOEE (2005) Regional housing strategy for the East of England. Government Office for the East of England

  • Halcrow (1999) Gorleston to lowestoft coastal strategy study. Halcrow Group Ltd

  • Halcrow, English Nature, Environment Agency, North Norfolk District Council, Great Yarmouth Borough Council, Waveney District Council and Great Yarmouth Port Authority (2006) Kelling to lowestoft ness shoreline management plan review. Anglian Coastal Authorities Group

  • Hall JW, Lee EM, Meadowcroft IC (2000) Risk-based benefit assessment of coastal cliff protection. Proc Inst Civ Eng Water Marit Eng 142:127–139, Sept

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hall JW, Dawson RJ, Sayers PB, Rosu C, Chatterton JB, Deakin R (2003a) A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment. Water Marit Eng ICE 156(3):235–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hall JW, Evans EP, Penning-Rowsell EC, Sayers PB, Thorne CR, Saul AJ (2003b) Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100. Glob Environ Change 5(3–4):51–65

    Google Scholar 

  • Hall JW, Tarantola S, Bates PD, Horritt MS (2005) Distributed sensitivity analysis of flood inundation model calibration. J Hydraul Eng, ASCE 131(2):117–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hall JW, Sayers PB, Walkden MJA, Panzeri M (2006) Impacts of climate change on the coast of England and Wales: 2030–2100. Phil Trans R Soc A 364(1861):1027–1049

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harland MG, Harland HJ (1980) The flooding of Eastern England. Minimax Books, Peterborough

    Google Scholar 

  • Holman IP, Loveland PJ, Nicholls RJ, Shackley S, Berry PM, Rounsevell MDA, Audsley E, Harrison PA, Wood R (2002) REGIS–Regional climate change impact and response studies in East Anglia and North West England. UKCIP and DEFRA, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Holman IP, Rounsevell MDA, Shackley S, Harrison PA, Nicholls RJ, Berry PM, Audsley E (2005) A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: I methodology. Clim Change 71(1–2):9–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Horritt MS, Bates PD (2001) Predicting floodplain inundation: raster-based modelling versus the finite element approach. Hydrol Process 15:825–842

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • HM Treasury (2003) The green book: appraisal and evaluation in central government. HM Stationery Office, London

    Google Scholar 

  • HR Wallingford (1980) Design of seawalls for wave overtopping. Report EX924, HR Wallingford

  • HR Wallingford (1999) Overtopping of seawalls: design and assessment manual. R&D Technical Report W178

  • HR Wallingford (2002) Overstrand to mundesley strategy study: hydrodynamics. HR Wallingford Ltd. Report

  • HR Wallingford (2003) Beach lowering in front of coastal structures. DEFRA/EA R&D Scoping Study Report FD1916/TR, DEFRA, London

  • HR Wallingford (2004) Investigation of extreme flood processes & uncertainty. (IMPACT, EC Research Project no. EVG1-CT2001-00037. www.impact-project.net)

  • Hulme M, Jenkins GJ, Lu X, Turnpenny JR, Mitchell TD, Jones RG, Lowe J, Murphy JM, Hassell D, Boorman P, McDonald R, Hill S (2002) Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom: the UKCIP02 scientific report. In: Tyndall centre for climate change research, school of environmental sciences. University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 120 pp

  • Jude S, Brown I, Koukoulas S, Dickson M, Walkden M, Jones A, Watkinson A (2005) Exploring future coastlines: initial steps towards the development of an integrated coastal simulation and visualisation system. In: Buhmann E, Paar P, Bishop IJ, Lange E (eds) Trends in real-time landscape visualization and participation. Herbert Wichmann Verlag, Heidelberg, pp 69–76

    Google Scholar 

  • Jude S, Jones AP, Andrews JE, Bateman IJ (2006) Visualisation for participatory coastal zone management: a case study of the Norfolk coast, England. J Coast Res 22:1527–1538

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kelman I (2003) 1953 Storm surge deaths: U.K. Version 4, 10 November 2003, Downloaded from http://www.ilankelman.org/disasterdeaths/1953DeathsUK.doc

  • Komar PD (1988) Beach processes and sedimentation, 2nd edn. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuang CP, Stansby PS (2004) Modelling directional random wave propagation inshore. Proc Inst Civ Eng Water Marit Eng 157:123–131

    Google Scholar 

  • Kushnir Y, Cardone VJ, Greenwood JG, Cane MA (1997) The recent increase in North Atlantic wave heights. J Climate 10(8):2107–2113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leafe R, Pethick J, Townend I (1998) Realizing the benefits of shoreline management. Geogr J 164(3):282–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Milligan J, O’Riordan T, Watkinson A (2006) Designing coastlines fit for the future. English Nature Research Reports No 702. Peterborough, UK

  • Ministry for Agriculture, Fisheries-and-Food, Welsh Office, Association of District Councils, English Nature and National Rivers Authority (1995) Shoreline management plans: a guide for coastal defence authorities. MAFF, London

  • Mosby JEG (1938) The Horsey Flood, 1938: an example of storm effect on a low coast. Geogr J 93(5):413–418

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moser SC (2005) Impacts assessments and policy responses to sea-level rise in three US states: an exploration of human dimension uncertainties. Glob Environ Change 15:353–369

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nairn RB, Southgate HN (1993) Deterministic profile modelling of nearshore processes. Part 2, sediment transport and beach profile development. Coast Eng 19:57–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Trust (2005) Shifting shores: living with coastal change. http://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/main/w-shifting_shores.pdf

  • Nicholls RJ (1995) Coastal megacities and climate change. Geojournal 37(3):369–379

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ (2004) Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Change 14:69–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Mokrech M, Richards J, Bates P, Dawson R, Hall J, Walkden M, Dickson M, Jordan A, Milligan J (2005) Assessing coastal flood risk at specific sites and regional scales: regional assessment of coastal flood risk. Tyndall Centre Technical Report No. 45. October 2005 http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme4/final_reports/t2_46.pdf

  • Nicholls RJ, Tol RSJ, Hall JW (2007a) Assessing impacts and responses to global-mean sea-level rise. In: Schlesinger ME, Kheshgi HS, Smith J, de la Chesnaye FC, Reilly JM, Wilson T, Kolstad C (eds) Human-induced climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 119–134

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Wong PP, Burkett VR, Codignotto JO, Hay JE, McLean RF, Ragoonaden S, Woodroffe CD (2007b) Coastal systems and low-lying areas. Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 315–356

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholson-Cole S (2005) Representing climate change futures: a critique on the uses of images for visual communication. Comput Environ Urban Syst 29:255–273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NNDC (2006) North Norfolk Local Plan: B35 Chapter 7—Environmental Safety. North Norfolk District Council, updated March 31st 2006. www.north-norfolk.gov.uk/planning/

  • Nordhaus W (2006) Geography and macroeconomics: new data and new findings. Proc Nat Acad Sci 103:3510–3517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ODPM (2003) Housing market: simple average house prices. Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, London

  • ODPM (2004) Planning Policy Statement 12: local development frameworks. Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, London

  • Parry ML (2004) An assessment of the global effects of climate change under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Change 14:1–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pelnard-Considere R (1956) Essai de theorie de l’evolution des forms de ravage en plage de sable et de galets. In: 4th Journees de l’Hydraulique, Les Energies de la Mer. Question III, pp 792–808

  • Penning-Rowsell EC, Johnson C, Tunstall SM, Tapsell SM, Morris J, Chatterton JB, Coker A, Green C (2003a) The benefits of flood and coastal defence: techniques and data for 2003. Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, London

  • Penning-Rowsell EC, Johnson C, Tunstall SM, Tapsell SM, Morris J, Chatterton JB, Green C (2003b) The benefits of flood and coastal risk management. Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University

  • Pringle AW (1985) Holderness coast erosion and the significance of ords. Earth Surf Processes Landf 10:107–124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reeve DE, Burgess KA (1993) A method for the assessment of coastal flood risk. IMA J Math Appl Bus Ind 5:197–209

    Google Scholar 

  • RICS (2003) Rural land market survey Great Britain: second Quarter 2003. Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, London

  • RIKZ, UNESCO-IHE, CRC (2005) ICZM in practice with examples from different countries. RIKZ Work document nr. RIKZ/KW/2005.102w

  • Rossiter JR (1954) The North Sea storm surge of 31st January and 1st February 1953. Proc Phil Trans Royal Soc Series A A246(915):317–400

    Google Scholar 

  • Sciberras AM (2002) Integrated coastal zone management—a challenge for the EU in the 21st Century. EIPASCOPE 2002 (1):1–5

  • Shennan I, Horton B (2002) Holocene land- and sea-level changes in Great Britain. J Quat Sci 17:511–526

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Small C, Nicholls RJ (2003) A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones. J Coast Res 19(3):584–599

    Google Scholar 

  • Stansby PK, Zhou JG, Kuang CP, Walkden MJA, Hall JW, Dickson ME (2006) Long-term prediction of nearshore wave climate with an application to cliff erosion. In: Proc 30th int. conf. on coastal engineering, San Diego

  • Steers JA (1953) The east coast floods. Geogr J 119(3):280–295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomalla F, Vincent CE (2003) Beach response to shore-parallel breakwaters at Sea Palling, Norfolk, UK. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 56(2):203–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas RS, Hall B (1992) Seawall design. CIRIA, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Thorne C, Evans E, Penning-Rowsell E (2007) Future flooding and coastal erosion risks. Thomas Telford, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Turner RK, Subak S, Adger WN (1996) Pressures, trends, and impacts in coastal zones: interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems. Environ Manage 20(2):159–173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UN (1994) United nations framework convention on climate change. United Nations

  • Vellinga P (1983) Verification of predictive computational model for beach and dune erosion during storm surges. Delft Hydraulics Laboratory, Delft

    Google Scholar 

  • Vincent CE (1979) Longshore sand transport rates—a simple model for the East Anglian coastline. Coast Eng 3:113–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Visser PJ (1998) Breach growth in sand defences. Communication on hydraulic and geotechnical engineering, TU Delft Report no. 98–91

  • VOA (2003) Property Market Report. Valuation Office Agency, Spring 2003

  • Wahl TL (1998) Prediction of embankment dam breach parameters: a literature review and needs assessment. Dams Safety Office: DSO-98-004. www.usbr.gov/pmts/hydraulics_lab/twahl/

  • Walkden MJA, Hall JW (2005) A predictive mesoscale model of the erosion and profile development of soft rock shores. Coast Eng 52:535–563

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wright M (2004) Coastal defence—current UK practice. Proc ICE Munic Eng 157:147–155

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK

    R. J. Dawson, J. W. Hall & M. J. A. Walkden

  2. School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand

    M. E. Dickson

  3. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Southampton University, Highfield, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK

    R. J. Nicholls & M. Mokrech

  4. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester, Manchester, M60 1QD, UK

    P. K. Stansby

  5. ABP Marine Environmental Research, Waterside House, Town Quay, Southampton, S014 2AQ, UK

    J. Richards

  6. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Liverpool, Brownlow Hill, Liverpool, L69 3GH, UK

    J. Zhou

  7. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    J. Milligan, A. Jordan & A. R. Watkinson

  8. British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, NG12 5GG, UK

    S. Pearson

  9. Natural Environment Research Council, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon, SN2 1EU, UK

    J. Rees

  10. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK

    P. D. Bates

  11. Geography Department, University of the Aegean, University Hill, Mytilene, 81100, Greece

    S. Koukoulas

Authors
  1. R. J. Dawson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. M. E. Dickson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. R. J. Nicholls
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. J. W. Hall
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. M. J. A. Walkden
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. P. K. Stansby
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. M. Mokrech
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. J. Richards
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. J. Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. J. Milligan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. A. Jordan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  12. S. Pearson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  13. J. Rees
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  14. P. D. Bates
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  15. S. Koukoulas
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  16. A. R. Watkinson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to R. J. Dawson.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Dawson, R.J., Dickson, M.E., Nicholls, R.J. et al. Integrated analysis of risks of coastal flooding and cliff erosion under scenarios of long term change. Climatic Change 95, 249–288 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9532-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9532-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation