Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Part 2: Models and Validation

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the General Circulation Model (GCM)-derived climate change projections, described in Part 1, to drive the crop production and water resource models EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) and HUMUS (Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States). These models are described and validated in this paper using historical crop yields and streamflow data in the conterminous United States in order to establish their ability to accurately simulate historical crop and water conditions and their capability to simulate crop and water response to the extreme climate conditions predicted by GCMs. EPIC simulated grain and forage crop yields are compared with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and with yields from agricultural experiments. EPIC crop yields correspond more closely with USDA historical county yields than with the higher yields from intensively managed agricultural experiments. The HUMUS model was validated by comparing the simulated water yield from each hydrologic basin with estimates of natural streamflow made by the US Geological Survey. This comparison shows that the model is able to reproduce significant observed relationships and capture major trends in water resources timing and distribution across the country.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen, L. H., Valle, R. R., Jones, J. W. and Jones, P. H.: 1998, ‘Soybean leaf water potential responses to carbon dioxide and drought’, Agron. J. 90, 375–383.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen, R. G., Gichuki, F. N. and Rosenzweig, C.: 1991, ‘CO2 induced climatic changes and irrigation water requirements’, J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag. 117(2), 157–178.

    Google Scholar 

  • Amthor, J. S.: 2001, ‘Effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yield: Review of results from experiments using various approaches to control CO2 concentration’, Field Crops Res. 73, 1–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arnold, J. G. and Allen, P. M.: 1996, ‘Estimating hydrologic budgets for three illinois watersheds’, J. Hydrol. 176, 57–77.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arnold, J. G., Muttiah, R. S., Srinivasan, R. and Allen, P. M.: 2000, ‘Regional estimation of base flow and groundwater recharge in the upper Mississippi basin’, J. Hydrol. 227(1–4), 21–40.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S. and Allen, P. M.: 1999, ‘Continental scale simulation of the hydrologic balance’, J. Am. Water Res. Assoc. 35, 1037–1051.

    Google Scholar 

  • Battaglin, W. A., Hay, L. E., Parker, R. S. and Leavesley, G. H.: 1993, ‘Applications of a GIS for modeling the sensitivity of water resources to alterations in climate in the Gunnison river basin, Colorado’, Water Res. Bull. 25(6), 1021–1028.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bowes, G.: 1993, ‘Facing the inevitable: Plants and increasing atmospheric CO2’, Annu. Rev. Plant Physiol. Plant Mol. Biol. 44, 309–332.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown, R. A. and Rosenberg, N. J.: 1997, ‘Sensitivity of crop yield and water use to change in a range of climatic factors and CO2 concentrations: A simulation study applying EPIC to the central USA’, Agric. Forest Meteorol. 83, 171–203.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown, R. A. and Rosenberg, N. J.: 1999a, ‘Climate change impacts on the potential productivity of corn and winter wheat in their primary United States growing regions’, Clim. Change 41, 73–107.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown, R. A. and Rosenberg, N. J.: 1999b, Impact of Climate Change on Potential Production of Corn, Sorghum, Soybean and Winter Wheat in the Conterminous United States for Application to the PNNL Global Change Assessment Model, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, 113 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterling, W. E., Hays, C. J., Easterling, M. M. and Brandle, J. R.: 1996, ‘Modeling the effect of shelterbelts on maize productivity under climate change: An application of the EPIC model’, Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 61, 163–176.

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterling, W. E., Rosenberg, N. J., McKenney, C. A., Jones, C. A., Dyke, P. T. and Williams, J. R.: 1992, ‘Preparing the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) model to simulate crop response to climate change and the direct effects of CO2’, Agric. Forest Meteorol. 59, 17–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gerbert, W. A., Graczyk, D. J. and Krug, W. R.: 1987, Average Annual Runoff in the United States, 1951–80. Reston, VA, United States Geologic Survey.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleick, P. H., Adams, D. B. and Krug, W. R.: 2000, Water: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the Water Resources of the United States, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 151 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Haxeltine, A. and Prentice, I. C.: 1996, ‘BIOME3: An equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model based on ecophysiological constraints, resource availability, and competition among plant functional types’, Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 693–709.

    Google Scholar 

  • J. T.Houghton, D. J.Ding, D. J.Griggs,M.Noguer, van der Linden, P. J. and D.Xiaosu (eds.): 2001, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 892 pp.

  • Izaurralde, R. C., Rosenberg, N. J., Brown, R. A., Legler, D. M., Tiscareno Lopez, M. and Srinivasan, R.: 1999, ‘Modeled effects of moderate and strong Los Ninos on crop productivity in North America’, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 94, 259–268.

    Google Scholar 

  • Izaurralde, R. C., Rosenberg, N. J., Brown, R. A. and Thomson, A. M.: 2003, ‘Integrated assessment of Hadley Center (HadCM2) climate-change impacts on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States Part II. Regional agricultural production in 2030 and 2095’, Agric. Forest Meteorol. 117, 97–122.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kimball, B. A.: 1983, ‘Carbon dioxide and agricultural yield: An assemblage of analysis of 430 prior observations’, Agronomy J. 75, 779–788.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirshen, P. H. and Fennessey, N. M.: 1995, ‘Possible climate change impacts on water supply of metropolitan Boston’, J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 121(1), 61–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Makino, A. and Mae, T.: 1999, ‘Photosynthesis and plant growth at elevated levels of CO2’, Plant Cell Physiol. 40(10), 999–1006.

    Google Scholar 

  • Maroco, J. P., Edwards, G. E. and Ku, M. S. B.: 1999, ‘Photosynthetic acclimation of maize to growth under elevated levels of carbon dioxide’, Planta 210, 115–125.

    Google Scholar 

  • McCabe, G. J. and Wolock, D. M.: 1992, ‘Sensitivity of irrigation demand in a humid-temperate region to hypothetical climatic change’, Water Resour. Bull. 28(3), 535–543.

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller, J. R. and Russell, G. L.: 1992, ‘The impact of global warming on river runoff’, J. Geophys. Res. 97(D3), 2757–2764.

    Google Scholar 

  • N.Nakicenovic and R.Swart (eds.): 2001, Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 612 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reilly, J., Baethgen, W., Chege, F. E., van de Geijn, S. C., Erda, L., Iglesias, A., Kenny, G., Patterson, D., Rogsick, J., Rotter, R., Rosenzweig, C., Sombroek, W. and Westbrook, J.: 1996, ‘Agriculture in a changing climate: Impacts and adaptation’ in Watson, R. T., M. C.Zinyowera and R. H.Moss (eds.), Climate Change 1995 — Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses. IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 429-467.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reilly, J., Tubiello, F., McCarl, B. and Melillo, J.: 2001, ‘Climate change and agriculture in the United States’, in Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, The National Assessment Synthesis Team, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 618 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Richardson, C. W. and Nicks, A. D.: 1990, ‘Weather generator description’, in Sharpley, A. N. and J. R.Williams (eds.), EPIC–Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator: 1. Model Documentation. Washington, DC, United States Department of Agriculture Technical Bulletin No. 1768.

  • Rosenberg, N. J., McKenney, M. S., Easterling, W. E. and Lemon, K. L.: 1992, ‘Validation of the EPIC model simulations of crop response to current climate and CO2 conditions: Comparisons with census, expert judgment and experimental plot data’, Agric. Forest Meteorol. 59, 35–51.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sias, J. C. and Lettenmaier, D. P.: 1994, Potential Effects of Climatic Warming on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 142 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Srinivasan, R., Arnold, J., Muttiah, R. S., Walker, C. and Dyke, P. T.: 1993, ‘Hydrologic unit model for United States (HUMUS)’, in Proceedings of Advances in Hydro-Science and Engineering, CCHE, School of Engineering, The University of Mississippi, MS.

  • Stockle, C. O., Dyke, P. T., Williams, J. R., Allen, C. A. and Rosenberg, N. J.: 1992a, ‘A method for estimating direct and climatic effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on growth and yield of crops: Part II – Sensitivity analysis at three sites in the Midwestern U.S.A.’, Agric. Syst. 38, 239–256.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stockle, C. O., Williams, J. R., Rosenberg, N. J. and Allen, C. A.: 1992b, ‘A method for estimating direct and climatic effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on growth and yield of crops: Part I – Modification of the EPIC model for climate change analysis’, Agric. Syst. 38, 225–228.

    Google Scholar 

  • United States Department of Agriculture, soil conservation service: 1992, STATSGO – State Soils Geographic Database, DC Washington, Soil Conservation Service.

  • USDA Soil Conservation Service: 1972, Hydrology Section 4, Chapters 4–10. National Engineering Handbook. Washington, DC, U.S.Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • United States Geological Survey: 1987, Hydrologic Unit Maps. Washington, DC, US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wigley, T. M. and Jones, P. D.: 1985, ‘Influences of precipitation changes and direct CO2 effects on streamflow’, Nature 314, 149–152

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, J. R.: 1995. ‘The EPIC model’, in Singh, V. P. (ed.), Computer models in watershed hydrology, Water Resources Publication, Highlands Ranch, CO, 909–1000.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, J. R., Dyke, P. T., Fuchs, W. W., Benson, V. W., Rice, O. W. and Taylor, E. D.: 1990, EPIC–Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator: 2. User Manual. U.S. Department of Agriculture Technical Bulletin No. 1768. Temple, TX, USDA-ARS, 127 pp.

  • Wolock, D. M. and Hornberger, G. M.: 1991, ‘Hydrological effects of changes in levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide’, J. Forecast. 10, 105–116.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolock, D. M. and McCabe, G. J.: 1999, ‘Explaining spatial variability in mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States’, Clim. Res. 11, 149–159.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Joint Global Change Research Institute, 8400 Baltimore Ave. Suite 201, College Park, MD, 20740, U.S.A.

    Allison M. Thomson, Norman J. Rosenberg & R. Cesar Izaurralde

  2. Independent Project Analysis, 11150 Sunset Hills Rd. Suite 300, Reston, VA, 20190, U.S.A.

    Robert A. Brown

Authors
  1. Allison M. Thomson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Norman J. Rosenberg
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. R. Cesar Izaurralde
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Robert A. Brown
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Allison M. Thomson.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Thomson, A.M., Rosenberg, N.J., Izaurralde, R.C. et al. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment. Climatic Change 69, 27–41 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-3609-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-3609-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation