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‘A Case Study on a Polar Cold Air Outbreak over Fram Strait using a Mesoscale Weather Prediction Model’

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Abstract

The mesoscale weather prediction model ’Lokal-Modell’ (LM) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst is applied to the situation of an Arctic cold air outbreak in the Fram Strait region in April 1998. Observations are available from a flight along 50E carried out during the ARTIST campaign. Initial and time-dependent boundary data for the simulation are taken from a larger scale operational model system.

Using the standard configuration of LM, the simulation reproduced the propagation of cold air and the characteristic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in fair agreement with the observations. However, a detailed comparison revealed three basic problems. Firstly, there is evidence that the available data on sea-ice conditions were insufficient approximations to the true state for several reasons. A modification of the sea-ice data towards observations revealed that parts of the discrepancies were due to the original sea-ice data. Secondly, a control run with the model in its standard configuration shows an insufficient warming of the ABL downstream of the ice edge due to underestimation of surface heat fluxes. A simple modification of the approach for the scalar roughness length resulted in the strongest benefit, while comparative studies showed only a slight sensitivity to different types of parametrisation of turbulent mixing or the inclusion of an additional moist convection parametrisation. Thirdly, in all the simulations the deepening of the convective ABL downstream of the ice edge is weaker than observed. This may be partly due to the thermal stratification above the ABL in the analysis data, which is more stable than observed; but it may also be a hint to the fact that processes near the inversion are insufficiently parametrised in mesoscale models with resolutions as used in LM. The simulated cloud layer in the convective ABL is similar to that observed with respect to condensate content, a sharply defined cloud top, a diffuse lower bound, and continuous light precipitation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Alfred–Wegener-Institut für Polar- und Meeresforschung, 27515 , Bremerhaven, Germany

    Ulrike Wacker, K. V. Jayaraman Potty, Christof Lüpkes & Jörg Hartmann

  2. Deutscher Wetterdienst, 63004 , Offenbach, Germany

    Matthias Raschendorfer

Authors
  1. Ulrike Wacker
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  2. K. V. Jayaraman Potty
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  3. Christof Lüpkes
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  4. Jörg Hartmann
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  5. Matthias Raschendorfer
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Correspondence to Ulrike Wacker.

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Wacker, U., Potty, K.V.J., Lüpkes, C. et al. ‘A Case Study on a Polar Cold Air Outbreak over Fram Strait using a Mesoscale Weather Prediction Model’. Boundary-Layer Meteorol 117, 301–336 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-005-2189-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-005-2189-1

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