Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Using species niche models to inform strategic management of weeds in a changing climate

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Biological Invasions Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The expansion of the global area planted in fast-growing forest species seems likely as a means of offsetting carbon dioxide emissions and developing a sustainable bio-energy resource. Selecting appropriate sites for these plantations will require consideration of the effect of climate change on plantation growth and risks from abiotic and biotic factors. Buddleja davidii has been identified as a weed that has a major impact on plantation forest production in New Zealand. While it is at present restricted mainly to the North Island, a large proportion of the area identified for forest expansion is in eastern and southern regions of the South Island where the weed is presently relatively scarce. In this study we use a process-oriented climatic niche model (CLIMEX) to identify climatically suitable areas for B. davidii under current climate and future climate during the 2080s. This analysis indicates areas most at risk from invasion by B. davidii are in eastern and southern regions of the South Island. As B. davidii predominantly colonises disturbed areas, the likely increases in plantation forest area within this region can be expected to promote the spread of B. davidii. Strategies that could be implemented to manage B. davidii in this region are discussed. This study highlights the general utility of process-oriented niche models in identifying possible threats to planned primary production activities from invasive weed species. This type of knowledge is invaluable in planning and allocation of often scarce resources to most effectively control high impact weeds. Without the synoptic view of the invasion and the assets at risk, there is a strong potential for regional pest management to be parochial, and consequently less effective at all scales.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • AsureQuality (2009) http://www.asurequality.com/geospatial-services/agribase-derived-products.cfm

  • Blacker T (2000) Warning: slow down, buddleia crossing. The Independent, London (July 21, 2000)

  • Brockerhoff EG, Jactel H, Parrotta JA, Quine CP, Sayer J (2008) Plantation forests and biodiversity: oxymoron or opportunity? Biodivers Conserv 17:925–951

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dixon RK, Brown S, Houghton RA, Solomon AM, Trexler MC, Wisniewski J (1994) Carbon pools and flux of global forest ecosystems. Science 263:185–190

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Dunlop EA, Wilson JC, Mackey A (2006) The potential geographic distribution of the invasive weed Senna obtusifolia in Australia. Weed Res 46:404–413

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Esler AE (1988) The naturalization of plants in urban Auckland, New-Zealand.5. Success of the alien species. N Z J Bot 26:565–584

    Google Scholar 

  • Ford-Robertson JB (1996) Estimating the net carbon balance of plantation forestry in New Zealand. Biomass Bioenergy 10:7–10

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gibb JA (1994) Plant succession on the braided bed of the Orongorongo river, Wellington, New-Zealand, 1973–1990. N Z J Ecol 18:29–40

    Google Scholar 

  • Giltrap D, Aussiel A-G, Ekanayake J, Pawson SM, Hall P, Newsome P, Dymond J (2009) Environmental impacts of large-scale forestry for bioenergy. Bioenergy options for New Zealand—analysis of large-scale forestry for bioenergy. Scion, Rotorua

    Google Scholar 

  • Hall P, Hock B, Palmer DJ, Kimberley MO, Pawson S, Walter C, Wilcox P, Jack M, Giltrap D, Aussiel A, Ekanayake J, Newsome P, Dymond J, Todd M, Zhang W, Kerr S (2009) Bioenergy options for New Zealand. Analysis of large scale bioenergy from forestry. Productivity, land use and environmental and economic implications. Scion, Rotorua 161 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Healy AJ (1946) Contributions to the naturalised flora. Trans R Soc N Z 3:401

    Google Scholar 

  • Kriticos DJ, Leriche A (2010) The effects of spatial data precision on fitting and projecting species niche models. Ecography (in press)

  • Kriticos DJ, Potter KJB (2006) Something’s bugging butterfly bush in Tasmania. In: Preston C, Watts JH, Crossman ND (eds) Fifteenth Australasian weeds conference, Weed Management Society of South Australia Inc, Adelaide Convention Centre on 24–28 September 2006

  • Kriticos DJ, Randall RP (2001) A comparison of systems to analyse potential weed distributions. In: Groves RH, Panetta FD, Virtue JD (eds) Weed risk assessment. CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, pp 61–79

    Google Scholar 

  • Kriticos DJ, Brown JR, Maywald GF, Radford ID, Nicholas DM, Sutherst RW, Adkins SW (2003a) SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica. Ecol Model 163:187–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kriticos DJ, Sutherst RW, Brown JR, Adkins SW, Maywald GF (2003b) Climate change and the potential distribution of an invasive alien plant: Acacia nilotica ssp. indica in Australia. J Appl Ecol 40:111–124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kriticos DJ, Alexander NS, Kolomeitz SM (2006) Predicting the potential geographic distribution of weeds in 2080. In: Preston C, Watts JH, Crossman ND (eds) Weed Science Society of Victoria, Melbourne, Australia, pp 27–34

  • Kriticos DJ, Potter KJB, Alexander NS, Gibb AR, Suckling DM (2007) Using a pheromone lure survey to establish the native and potential distribution of an invasive Lepidopteran, Uraba lugens. J Appl Ecol 44:853–863

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kriticos DJ, Watt MS, Withers TM, Leriche A, Watson MC (2009) A process-based population dynamics model to explore target and non-target impacts of a biological control agent. Ecol Model 220:2035–2050

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kriticos DJ, Watt MS, Potter KJB, Manning LK, Alexander NS, Tallent-Halsell NG (2010) Managing invasive weeds under climate change: considering the current and potential future distribution of Buddleja davidii. Weed Res (submitted)

  • Lewis NB, Ferguson IS (1993) Management of radiata pine. Inkata Press, Melbourne, p 404

    Google Scholar 

  • Lynn IH, Manderson AK, Page MJ, Harmsworth GR, Eyles GO, Douglas GB, Mackay AD, Newsome PJF (2009) Land use capability survey handbook—a New Zealand handbook for the classification of land, 3rd edn. Hamilton, Agresearch; Lincoln, Landcare Research; Lower Hutt, GNS Science. 163 p

  • Mack RN, Simberloff D, Lonsdale WM, Evans H, Clout M, Bazzaz FA (2000) Biotic invasions: causes, epidemiology, global consequences and control. Ecol Appl 10:689–710

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mason EG, Milne PG (1999) Effects of weed control, fertilization, and soil cultivation on the growth of Pinus radiata at mid-rotation in Canterbury, New Zealand. Can J For Res 29:985–992

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1383–1394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller A (1984) The distribution and ecology of Buddleia davidii Franch. in Britain, with particular reference to conditions supporting germination and the establishment of seedlings. PhD thesis undertaken at Dept. of Biology, Oxford Polytechnic in collaboration with the Dept. of Forestry, University of Oxford

  • Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M (2004) A comprehensive set of climate scenarios for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1900–2000) and 16 scenarios (2000–2100). University of East Anglia, p 30

  • National Biodiversity Network (2007) UK National Biodiversity Database. Retrieved from http://data.gbif.org/datasets/provider/172 on 2007 December 25

  • N.Z.F.O.A. (2007) New Zealand forestry industry, facts and figures 2006/2007. New Zealand Forest Owners Association, Wellington

    Google Scholar 

  • Owen DF, Whiteway WR (1980) Buddleia davidii in Britain: history and development of an associated fauna. Biol Conserv 17:149–155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palma R (2005) Social and environmental valuation as a tool for forest management. N Z J For Sci 50:23–26

    Google Scholar 

  • Potter KJB, Kriticos DJ, Watt MS, Leriche A (2009) The current and future potential distribution of Cytisus scoparius: a weed of pastoral systems, natural ecosystems and plantation forestry. Weed Res 49:271–282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richardson B (1993) Vegetation management practices in plantation forests of Australia and New Zealand. Can J For Res 23:1989–2005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richardson B, Vanner A, Ray J, Davenhill N, Coker G (1996) Mechanisms of Pinus radiata growth suppression by some common forest weed species. N Z J For Sci 26:421–437

    Google Scholar 

  • Richardson B, Skinner MF, West G (1999) The role of forest productivity in defining the sustainability of plantation forests in New Zealand. For Ecol Manag 122:125–137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheppard AW, Shaw RH, Sforza R (2006) Top 20 environmental weeds for classical biological control in Europe: a review of opportunities, regulations and other barriers to adoption. Weed Res 46:93–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Somerville AR (1995) Wind damage in New Zealand State plantation forests. In: Coutts MP, Grace J (eds) Wind and trees. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 460–467

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Stephens AEA, Kriticos DJ, Leriche A (2007) The current and future potential geographic distribution of the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae). Bull Entomol Res 97:369–378

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Sutherst RW, Baker RHA, Coakley SM, Harrington R, Kriticos DJ, Scherm H (2007a) Pests under global change—meeting your future landlords? Terrestrial ecosystems in a changing world, Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp 211–223

  • Sutherst RW, Maywald GF, Kriticos DJ (2007b) CLIMEX Version 3: user’s guide. Hearne Scientific Software Pty Ltd

  • Tallent-Halsell NG, Watt MS (2009) The invasive Buddleja davidii (Butterfly Bush). Bot Rev 75:292–325

  • The New Encyclopedia Britannica (2002) The New Encyclopedia Britannica 15th edition. Published in Chicago [Ill.], Encyclopaedia Britannica, Sydney [N.S.W.]

  • Thomas MM, Watt MS, Jay J, Peltzer D, Mason EG, Turnbull MH, Whitehead D (2009) Influence of defoliation on reproductive capacity and growth in Buddleja davidii. Weed Res 49:67–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson K, Colsell S, Carpenter J, Smith RM, Warren PH, Gaston KJ (2005) Urban domestic gardens (VII): a preliminary survey of soil seed banks. Seed Sci Res 15:133–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Times Book Group (2006) The times concise atlas of the world. Times Books, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Wagner RG, Little KM, Richardson B, McNabb K (2006) The role of vegetation management for enhancing productivity of the world’s forests. Forestry 79:57–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watt MS, Whitehead D, Richardson B, Mason EG, Leckie AC (2003) Modelling the influence of weed competition on the growth of young Pinus radiata at a dryland site. For Ecol Manag 178:271–286

    Google Scholar 

  • Watt MS, Kimberley MO, Coker G, Richardson B, Estcourt G (2007a) Modelling the influence of weed competition on growth of young Pinus radiata. Development and parameterization of a hybrid model across an environmental gradient. Can J For Res 37:607–616

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watt MS, Whitehead D, Kriticos DJ, Gous SF, Richardson B (2007b) Using a process-based model to analyse compensatory growth in response to defoliation: simulating herbivory by a biological control agent. Biol Control 43:119–129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watt MS, Kirschbaum MUF, Paul TSH, Tait A, Pearce HG, Brockerhoff EG, Moore JR, Bulman LS, Kriticos DJ (2008) The effect of climate change on New Zealand’s planted forests: impacts, risks and opportunities. Client report no. CC MAF POL_2008-07 (106-1)—No. 1

  • Watt MS, Kriticos DJ, Manning LK (2009) The current and future potential distribution of Melaleuca quinquenervia. Weed Res 49:381–390

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webb DA (1985) What are the criteria for presuming native status? Watsonia 15:231–236

    Google Scholar 

  • Webb CJ, Sykes WR, Garnock-Jones PJ (1988) Flora of New Zealand. Botany Division, Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, Christchurch

    Google Scholar 

  • Wharton TN, Kriticos DJ (2004) The fundamental and realized niche of the Monterey Pine aphid, Essigella californica (Essig) (Hemiptera: Aphididae): implications for managing softwood plantations in Australia. Divers Distrib 10:253–262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whetton PH, McInnes KL, Jones RN, Hennessy KJ, Suppiah R, Page CM, Bathols JM, Durack P (2005) Australian climate change projections for impact assessment and policy application: a review. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Melbourne, p 33

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank MAF (Contract No. C04X0901) and the Foundation for Research Science and Technology (Contract No. C10X0811), New Zealand, for funding this research. We are also very grateful to Peter Hall, Barbara Hock, and the rest of the team that produced the Bioenergy Options report, for allowing us to use the afforestation scenarios. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development collaborated in the research. This manuscript has been subject to Agency peer review and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation for use.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Scion, P.O. Box 29237, Fendalton, Christchurch, New Zealand

    Michael S. Watt

  2. CSIRO Entomology and Climate Adaptation Flagship, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

    Darren J. Kriticos

  3. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems and CRC for Forestry, Private Bag 12, Hobart, TAS, 7007, Australia

    Karina J. B. Potter

  4. Scion, P.O. Box 3020, Rotorua, New Zealand

    Lucy K. Manning

  5. Landscape Ecology Branch, US Environmental Protection Agency, 944 E. Harmon Ave., Las Vegas, NV, 89119, USA

    Nita Tallent-Halsell

  6. AgResearch, Private Bag 4749, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand

    Graeme W. Bourdôt

Authors
  1. Michael S. Watt
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Darren J. Kriticos
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Karina J. B. Potter
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Lucy K. Manning
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Nita Tallent-Halsell
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Graeme W. Bourdôt
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Michael S. Watt.

Additional information

Michael S. Watt and Darren J. Kriticos have contributed equally to this paper.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Watt, M.S., Kriticos, D.J., Potter, K.J.B. et al. Using species niche models to inform strategic management of weeds in a changing climate. Biol Invasions 12, 3711–3725 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-010-9764-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-010-9764-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation