Abstract
The Dst (Disturbance storm time) index is a measurement of earth geomagnetic activity and is widely used to characterize the geomagnetic storm. It is calculated on the basis of the average value of the horizontal component of the earth’s magnetic field at four observatories, namely, Hermanus (33.3° south, 80.3° in magnetic dipole latitude and longitude), Kakioka (26.0° north, 206.0°), Honolulu (21.0° north, 266.4°), and San Juan (29.9° north, 3.2°) and is expressed in nano-Teslas. The strength of the low-latitude surface magnetic field is inversely proportional to the energy content of the ring current around earth caused by solar protons and electrons, which increases during geomagnetic storms. Thus a negative Dst index value indicates that the earth’s magnetic field is weakened which is specifically the case during solar storms. Predicting Dst index is a difficult task due to its structural complexity involving a variety of underlying plasma mechanism. For characterizing and forecasting this complex time series, a formal model must be established to identify the specific pattern of the series. Persistent demand for a fool proof model of Geomagnetic Dst index prompted us to investigate the Dst Time Series mechanism with a very recent technique called Visibility Algorithm and it is observed that the Dst time series follows the same model that of a Stochastic Fractional Brownian motion having long range correlation.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Akasofu, S.I.: Relationship between the AE and Dst indices during geomagnetic storms. J. Geophys. Res. 86, 4820 (1981)
American Geophysical Union: In: Geomagnetic Storms Can Threaten Electric Power Grid Earth in Space, vol. 9, pp. 9–11, No. 7, March (1997)
Burton, R.K., McPherron, R.L., Russell, C.T.: An empirical relationship between interplanetary conditions and Dst. J. Geophys. Res. 80(31), 4204–4214 (1975). doi:10.1029/JA080i031p04204
Cerrato, Y., Saiz, E., Cid, C., Angel, H.M.: Geomagnetic storms: their sources and a model to forecast the Dst index. In: Lecture Notes and Essays in Astrophysics, vol. 1, pp. 165–176. Springer, Berlin (2004)
Conway, J.: Some crazy sequences. Lecture presented at AT&T Bell Labs, Murray Hill, NJ, 15 July (1988)
Drezet, P.M., Harrison, R.F., Balikhin, M.: A kernel-based technique for forecasting geomagnetic activity and prediction of Dst. Adv. Space Res. 30(10), 2181–2188 (2002)
Elman, J.L.: Finding structure in time. Cogn. Sci. 14(2), 179–211 (1990)
Feder, J.: Fractals, pp. 149–183. Plenum Press, New York (1988)
Fenrich, F.R., Luhmann, J.G.: Geomagnetic response to magnetic clouds of different polarity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25(15), 2999–3002 (1998). doi:10.1029/98GL51180
Gonzalez, W.D., Joselyn, J.A., Kamide, Y., Kroehl, H.W., Rostoker, G., Tsurutani, B.T., Vasyliunas, V.M.: What is a geomagnetic storm? J. Geophys. Res. 99(A4), 5771–5792 (1994). doi:10.1029/93JA02867
Kantelhardt, J.W.: Fractal and multifractal time series. In: Springer Encyclopaedia of Complexity and System Science. Springer, Berlin (2008, in press). Preprint arXiv:0804.0747
Klimas, A.J., Vassiliadis, D., Baker, D.N.: Dst index prediction using data-derived analogues of the magnetospheric dynamics. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 20435 (1998)
Kugblenu, S., Taguchi, S., Okuzawa, T.: Prediction of the geomagnetic storm associated Dst index using an artificial neural network algorithm. Earth Planets Space 51, 307–313 (1999)
Lacasa, L., Toral, R.: Description of stochastic and chaotic series using visibility graphs. Phys. Rev. E 82, 036120 (2010)
Lacasa, L., Luque, B., Ballesteros, F., Luque, J., Nuno, J.C.: From time series to complex networks: the visibility graph. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105(13), 4972–4975 (2008)
Lacasa, L., Luque, B., Luque, J., Nuno, J.C.: The visibility graph: a new method for estimating the Hurst exponent of fractional Brownian motion. Europhys. Lett. 86, 30001 (2009)
Luque, B., Lacasa, L., Ballesteros, F., Luque, J.: Horizontal visibility graphs: exact results for random time series. Phys. Rev. E 80, 046103 (2009)
Lundstedt, H., Wintoft, P.: Prediction of geomagnetic storms from solar wind data with the use of a neural network. Ann. Geophys. 12, 19 (1994)
Lundstedt, H., Gleisner, H., Wintoft, P.: Operational forecasts of the geomagnetic Dst index. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29(24), 2181 (2002). doi:10.1029/2002GL016151
McPherron, R.L., Siscoe, G., Crooker, N.U., Arge, N.: Probabilistic forecasting of the Dst index, the inner magnetosphere: physics and modeling. In: Pulkkinen, T.I., Tsyganenko, N.A., Friedel, R.H.W. (eds.) Geophysical Monograph, vol. 155, p. 203. AGU Books Board, AGU, Washington (2005). ISBN: 0-87590-420-3
Murayama, T.: Coupling function between the solar wind and the Dst index. In: Kamide, Y., Slavin, J.A. (eds.) Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Coupling, p. 119. Terra Scientific, Tokyo (1986)
Moon, G.-H., Ahn, B.-H., Sun, W.: Estimation of the Dst index based on the AL index. Adv. Space Res. 37(6), 1148–1151 (2006)
National Research Council: Severe Space Weather Events-Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts. Workshop Report. Washington, DC, National Academies Press (2008). ISBN 0-309-12769-6
Newmann, M.E.J.: Contemp. Phys. 46(5), 323–351 (2005)
O’Brien, T.P., McPherron, R.L.: An empirical phase space analysis of ring current dynamics: solar wind control of injection and decay. J. Geophys. Res. 105, 7707 (2000)
Pallocchia, G., Amata, E., Consolini, G., Marcucci, M.F., Bertello, I.: ANN prediction of the Dst index. Mem. SA It. Suppl. 9, 120 (2006a)
Pallocchia, G., Amata, E., Consolini, G., Marcucci, M.F., Bertello, I.: Geomagnetic Dst index forecast based on IMF data only. Ann. Geophys. 24, 989–999 (2006b)
Park, Y.-K., Ahn, B.-H.: Dst prediction based on solar wind parameters. J. Astron. Space Sci. 26(4), 425–438 (2009)
Parnowski, A.S.: Statistical approach to Dst prediction. J. Phys. Stud. 12(4), 4003 (2008)
Saba, M., Gonzalez, W.D., Gonzalez, A.L.C.: Relationship between the Dst, ap and AE indices. Adv. Space Res. 14, 435–438 (1994)
Sharifi, J., Araabi, B.N., Caro, L.: Multi-step prediction of Dst index using singular spectrum analysis and locally linear neurofuzzy modeling. Earth Planets Space 58, 331–341 (2006)
Siscoe, G., McPherron, R.L., Liemohn, M.W., Ridley, A.J., Lu, G.: Reconciling prediction algorithms for Dst. J. Geophys. Res. 110, A02215 (2005). doi:10.1029/2004JA010465
Stepanova, M.V., Pérez, P.: Autoprediction of Dst index using neural network techniques and relationship to the auroral geomagnetic indices. Geofís. Int. 39(1), 143–146 (2000)
Sugiura, M.: Hourly values of equatorial Dst for IGY. In: Annals of the International Geophysical Year, vol. 35, pp. 945–948. Pergamon Press, Oxford (1964)
Temerin, M., Li, X.: A new model for the prediction of Dst on the basis of the solar wind. J. Geophys. Res. 107(A12), 1472 (2002). doi:10.1029/2001JA007532
Temerin, M., Li, X.: Dst model for 1995–2002. J. Geophys. Res. 111, A04221 (2006). doi:10.1029/2005JA011257
Vassiliadis, D., Klimas, A.J., Valdivia, J.A., Baker, D.N.: The Dst geomagnetic response as a function of storm phase and amplitude and the solar wind electric field. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 24957 (1999)
Wanliss, J.A., Showalter, K.M.: High-resolution global storm index: Dst versus SYM-H. J. Geophys. Res. 111, A02202 (2006). doi:10.1029/2005JA011034
Wanliss, J.A., Anh, V.V., Yu, Z.G., Watson, S.: Multifractal modelling of magnetic storms via symbolic dynamics analysis. J. Geophys. Res. 110, A08214 (2005)
Watanabe, S., Sagawa, E., Ohtaka, K., Shimazu, H.: Prediction of the Dst index from solar wind parameters by a neural network method. Earth Planets Space 54, 1263–1275 (2002)
Wei, H.L., Billings, S.A., Balikhin, M.: Analysis of the geomagnetic activity of the Dst index and self-affine fractals using wavelet transforms. Nonlinear Process. Geophys. 11, 303–312 (2004a). SRef-ID: 1607-7946/npg/2004-11-303
Wei, H.L., Billings, S.A., Balikhin, M.: Prediction of the Dst index using multiresolution wavelet models. J. Geophys. Res. 109, A07212 (2004b). doi:10.1029/2003JA010332
Wu, J.-G., Lundstedt, H.: Prediction of geomagnetic storms from solar wind data using Elman recurrent neural networks. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 319 (1996)
Yu, Z.G., Anh, V.V., Wanliss, J.A., Watson, S.M.: Chaos game representation of the Dst index and prediction of geomagnetic storm events. Chaos Solitons Fractals 31(3), 736–746 (2006)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Banerjee, A., Bej, A. & Chatterjee, T.N. On the existence of a long range correlation in the Geomagnetic Disturbance storm time (Dst) index. Astrophys Space Sci 337, 23–32 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10509-011-0836-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10509-011-0836-1