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Landslide risk assessment in a densely populated hilly area

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Abstract

Landslide risk assessments provide essential information to develop loss reduction strategies. However, only very few studies produce risk maps. Lack of temporal data on landslides is one of the reasons. This paper develops a methodology to assess the economic risk of landslides when limited landslide hazard information is available. It provides spatially explicit estimates of future landslide risks in a densely populated low-relief area and applies different spatial probability scenarios. In the study area (710 km2), residential buildings cover 7 % of the area with elements at risk, but are responsible for about 86 % of the total risk. Roads cover 8 % of the area with elements at risk but are responsible for about 14 % of the total risk. The annual landslide risk is approximately 50 million to 80 million euros 2011 values depending on the spatial probability scenario considered. This indicates that landslide mitigation efforts would create considerable benefits. Landslide risk would reduce significantly if better land use zoning would be applied to sterilize landslide-prone terrain as particularly the residential buildings and access roads determine the total risk.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Bioeconomics, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200 E box 2411, 3001, Leuven, Belgium

    Liesbet Vranken & Goele Vantilt

  2. Division of Geography, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200 E box 2411, 3001, Leuven, Belgium

    Miet Van Den Eeckhaut & Jean Poesen

  3. Department Nature, Environment and Energy, Flemish Government, Koning Albert II-laan 20 bus 8, 1000, Brussels, Belgium

    Liesbeth Vandekerckhove

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  1. Liesbet Vranken
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  2. Goele Vantilt
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  3. Miet Van Den Eeckhaut
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  4. Liesbeth Vandekerckhove
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  5. Jean Poesen
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Correspondence to Liesbet Vranken.

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Vranken, L., Vantilt, G., Van Den Eeckhaut, M. et al. Landslide risk assessment in a densely populated hilly area. Landslides 12, 787–798 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-014-0506-9

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