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Short-term response to the North Atlantic Oscillation but no long-term effects of climate change on the reproductive success of an alpine bird

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Abstract

Deciphering the effects of climatic conditions on population dynamics is of major importance in understanding how organisms are likely to be affected by climate changes. Using data from broad-scale annual censuses between 1990 and 2007, we show that winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillations affect several breeding success indicators of the Black Grouse (Tetrao tetrix) in the French Alps. We did not find any trend in hen counts or breeding indexes over the study period. Surprisingly for a bird specialised in cold climates, we show that Black Grouse optimise their reproductive output for positive values of the winter NAO corresponding to the average NAO index of the last 30 years. Extreme NAO values lead to lower breeding success, indicating that the grouse may be more able to track trends in climate than an increase in the frequency of extreme years. Our result show that, at least from a short-term perspective, Black Grouse productivity is not threatened by a trend towards warmer climatic conditions in the Alps, but may be affected by an increased frequency of extreme years. We advocate the use of the NAO as a climate proxy rather than using heavily noised and biased local climate descriptors in studies focusing on the global response to climate over a large spatial scale.

Zusammenfassung

Die Folgen der Klimaverhältnisse auf die Populationsdynamik zu entschlüsseln ist von größter Wichtigkeit, um zu verstehen, wie sich Klimaveränderungen wahrscheinlich auf Organismen auswirken werden. Mittels Daten aus umfassenden jährlichen Zählungen zwischen 1990 und 2007 zeigen wir, dass Nordatlantische Oszillationen in Winter und Sommer mehrere Anzeiger von Bruterfolg bei Birkhühnern (Tetrao tetrix) in den französischen Alpen beeinflussen. Wir fanden keinen Trend in den Zahlen von Hühnern oder in Brutanzeigern während des Untersuchungszeitraums. Wir zeigen, dass Birkhühner ihre Fortpflanzungsleistung für positive Winter-NAOs (bezogen auf den durchschnittlichen NAO-Index der letzten 30 Jahre) optimieren, was für einen an ein kaltes Klima angepassten Vogel überraschend ist. Extreme NAOI-Werte führen zu niedrigerem Bruterfolg, was darauf hindeutet, dass Birkhühner besser in der Lage sein könnten, Klimatrends zu folgen, als eine Zunahme der Häufigkeit extremer Jahre zu bewältigen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass zumindest aus kurzfristiger Sicht die Produktivität der Birkhühner nicht durch einen Trend zu wärmeren Klimaverhältnissen in den Alpen bedroht ist, jedoch durch eine erhöhte Häufigkeit extremer Jahre beeinträchtigt sein dürfte. Wir empfehlen, für Studien, die sich auf die großflächige, globale Antwort auf das Klima konzentrieren, die NAO als Klimamaß zu verwenden und nicht stark störanfällige und verzerrte lokale Klimadeskriptoren.

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Acknowledgments

We wish to thank the French Mountain Galliforms Observatory (OGM) which leads the surveys on which our data are based. We also thank A. Charmantier, V. Grosbois, J.W. Hurrell and C. Folland for helpful discussions about various aspects of this study. A. Mysterud and R. Bischof, and two anonymous referees contributed through their valuable comments on an earlier version of this manuscript. H. Bohbot and S. Marin provided helpful contributions in the use of geographical data related to our dataset. The fieldwork carried out for this study complies with the French laws.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Campus CNRS, UMR 5175, 1919 route de Mende, Montpellier Cedex 5, 34293, France

    Jean-Yves Barnagaud, Pierre André Crochet & Olivier Gimenez

  2. Office National de la Chasse et de la Faune Sauvage, 90 Impasse des Daudes, Route du col de Leschaux, 74320, Sevrier, France

    Yann Magnani

  3. Office National de la Chasse et de la Faune Sauvage, CNERA Faune de montagne, CADAM, Préfecture Est, 06286, Nice Cedex 3, France

    Ariane Bernard Laurent

  4. Office National de la Chasse et de la Faune Sauvage, Impasse la Chapelle, 31800, Villeneuve de Rivière, France

    Emmanuel Menoni

  5. Office National de la Chasse et de la Faune Sauvage, Direction des Etudes et de la Recherche, Espace Alfred Sauvy, 66500, Prades, France

    Claude Novoa

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  1. Jean-Yves Barnagaud
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  2. Pierre André Crochet
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  6. Claude Novoa
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Correspondence to Jean-Yves Barnagaud.

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Communicated by F. Bairlein.

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Barnagaud, JY., Crochet, P.A., Magnani, Y. et al. Short-term response to the North Atlantic Oscillation but no long-term effects of climate change on the reproductive success of an alpine bird. J Ornithol 152, 631–641 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-010-0623-8

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