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An efficient early warning system for typhoon storm surge based on time-varying advisories by coupled ADCIRC and SWAN

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Abstract

In order to mitigate storm surge impacts, precise surge guidance computations for forecasters must be finished within a short period of time to allow them to provide early warning to the public. For this purpose, a coupled ADCIRC and SWAN model was applied based on multiple scenario-based, deterministic model runs for each time-varying meteorological forecast advisory on a relatively lightweight mesh with 57 k nodes covering the North Western Pacific (NWP) ocean. The mesh was designed to achieve an optimal combination of speed and accuracy on a cost-effective parallel computer with 64 cores. These models were applied for two events in 2012: typhoon Bolaven (on the west coast of Korea) and typhoon Sanba (on the south coast of Korea). The surge results for a 72-h forecast yielded relative surge height error of 34.1 to 46.4 % in ADCIRC + SWAN. The surge results from a meteorological forecast 24 h from landfall improved to 21.7 to 26.8 %. Furthermore, surge elevation results progressively approached measured values (i.e., improved) with each successive typhoon advisory owing to diminishing uncertainties in the meteorological input. In conclusion, this new efficient early warning forecast guidance workflow successfully achieved its goals of real-time storm surge simulations for forecasters, early warning, and understanding of ocean dynamics.

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Acknowledgments

This research was a part of the project entitled “Countermeasure system against hazards of typhoons and tsunamis in harbor zones—stage 2” of the Frontier Harbor Project funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea. We greatly appreciate the valuable comments and suggestions by the anonymous reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Kunsan National University, Daehak-ro 1170, Kunsan, Jeonbuk, Korea

    Seung Won Suh, Hwa Young Lee & Hyeon Jeong Kim

  2. Seahorse Coastal Consulting, 3103 Mandy Ln, Morehead City, NC, USA

    Jason G. Fleming

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  1. Seung Won Suh
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  2. Hwa Young Lee
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Correspondence to Seung Won Suh.

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Suh, S.W., Lee, H.Y., Kim, H.J. et al. An efficient early warning system for typhoon storm surge based on time-varying advisories by coupled ADCIRC and SWAN. Ocean Dynamics 65, 617–646 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0820-3

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