Abstract
In order to address the need for surface trajectory forecasts following deployment of coastal HF radar systems during emergency-response situations (e.g., search and rescue, oil spill), a short-term predictive system (STPS) based on only a few hours data background is presented. First, open-modal analysis (OMA) coefficients are fitted to 1-D surface currents from all available radar stations at each time interval. OMA has the effect of applying a spatial low-pass filter to the data, fills gaps, and can extend coverage to areas where radial vectors are available from a single radar only. Then, a set of temporal modes is fitted to the time series of OMA coefficients, typically over a short 12-h trailing period. These modes include tidal and inertial harmonics, as well as constant and linear trends. This temporal model is the STPS basis for producing up to a 12-h current vector forecast from which a trajectory forecast can be derived. We show results of this method applied to data gathered during the September 2010 rapid-response demonstration in northern Norway. Forecasted coefficients, currents, and trajectories are compared with the same measured quantities, and statistics of skill are assessed employing 16 24-h data sets. Forecasted and measured kinetic variances of the OMA coefficients typically agreed to within 10–15%. In one case where errors were larger, strong wind changes are suspected and examined as the cause. Sudden wind variability is not included properly within the STPS attack we presently employ and will be a subject for future improvement.
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Acknowledgments
The data used in this investigation were collected during the 2010 Rapidly Deployable HF Radar demonstration in Finnmark, Norway by the Norwegian company CodarNor AS with funding from the Norwegian Clean Seas Association for Operating Companies (NOFO) and Innovation Norway through an industrial research and development contract. The Norwegian field work also received funding from the Oilwave project funded by ENI and the Research Council of Norway (NFR) through the PETROMAKS programme (grant no 207541) and from the Biowave project funded through the NFR programme “Havet og kysten” (grant no. 196438). V. Fernández and M.I. Ferrer hold the Torres Quevedo Grant no’s. PTQ06-02-0930 and PTQ09-02-01454, awarded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, by the European Regional Development Fund, and by the European Social Fund. The authors would like to personally thank Dr. Anton Kjelaas of CodarNor, Andres Alonso Martirena and Pedro Agostinho of Qualitas REMOS, Peter Lilleboe of CODAR Ocean Sensors, and Jørn Johansen of Polarbase AS for their invaluable contributions to this article and the success of the NOFO field trial.
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Responsible Editor: Michel Olagnon
This article is part of the Topical Collection on Advances in Search and Rescue at Sea
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Barrick, D., Fernandez, V., Ferrer, M.I. et al. A short-term predictive system for surface currents from a rapidly deployed coastal HF radar network. Ocean Dynamics 62, 725–740 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-012-0521-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-012-0521-0