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Maximal endurable time states and the standard gamble: more preference reversals

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Abstract

Background

The time trade off (TTO) method is not sensitive to maximal endurable time preferences, as preference reversals occur. The standard gamble (SG) method has not been tested regarding its sensitivity to maximal endurable time preferences.

Objective

This study investigates whether preference reversals occur for the SG method as well.

Methods

Fifty-nine respondents stated for several migraine health states their preference for living 10 or 20 years in that state. A migraine state was selected for which a respondent preferred 10–20 years, a maximal endurable time preference. Two probability equivalent gambles were obtained for the migraine states lasting 10 and 20 years, respectively. Preference reversals occurred when the gamble, equivalent to the longer duration, was preferred to the gamble equivalent to the shorter duration.

Results

Out of 59 respondents, 48 had maximal endurable time preferences. Of these 48 respondents, 34 (71 %) showed a preference reversal. This percentage differed significantly from chance, that is 50 % (P = 0.004), indicating that preference reversals occurred reliably.

Conclusion

The observed reversal rate for the standard gamble is similar to rates observed previously with the TTO method. Utility measurement of poor health states is problematic, both with the TTO and standard gamble methods.

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Acknowledgments

We thank editors and reviewers for constructive and valuable comments on previous versions of this study. This study was supported by a Grant (KUN 2005–3457, from the Dutch Cancer Society. The Dutch Cancer Society had no influence on the study, including e.g. study design, data analyses and publications.

Conflict of interest

None.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department for Health Evidence, Radboud University Medical Centre, HEV 133, P.O. Box 9101, 6500 HB, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

    P. F. M. Stalmeier

  2. Department for Health Evidence, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

    A. L. Verheijen

  3. Department of Radiation Oncology, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

    P. F. M. Stalmeier

Authors
  1. P. F. M. Stalmeier
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  2. A. L. Verheijen
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Correspondence to P. F. M. Stalmeier.

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Stalmeier, P.F.M., Verheijen, A.L. Maximal endurable time states and the standard gamble: more preference reversals. Eur J Health Econ 14, 971–977 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10198-012-0445-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10198-012-0445-0

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