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A nomogram predicting the relationship between recanalization time and successful endovascular recanalization of non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion in a Chinese population

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Abstract

Different recanalization times for endovascular interventions may affect the success of non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion procedures. Nomograms can provide personalized and more accurate risk estimates based on predictive values. Therefore, we developed a nomogram to predict the probability of success of endovascular recanalization procedures for non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion. We performed a single-center retrospective analysis of data collected from patients who underwent endovascular treatment for non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion between January 2015 and December 2022. Multifactorial logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors affecting the success rate of non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion procedures and to create nomograms. The model was differentiated and calibrated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC) and calibration plots. Internal validation of the model was performed by using resampling (1000 replications). In total, 46 patients were identified and a total of 39 patients met the study criteria. Predictors in the nomogram included vascular occlusion proximal morphology, reversed flow of the ophthalmic artery, and recanalization time. The model showed good resolution with an ROC area of 0.917 (95% CI: 0.814–0.967). The nomogram can be used to personalize, visualize, and accurately predict the surgical success of endovascular treatment of non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion.

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Data availability

The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, upon request to the corresponding author. If anyone would like to receive data from this study, they can contact Yong Ma at 1527692122@qq.com.

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Funding

This study was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province (22JR5RA673, 23JRRA1308, 20JR10RA384) and Gansu Provincial Key Laboratory of Cerebrovascular Disease (20JR10RA431).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Clinical Medicine, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia, China

    Yong Ma

  2. Cerebrovascular Disease Center, Gansu Provincial Hospital, No. 24 Donggang East Road, Lanzhou, 730000, Gansu, China

    Yong Ma, Yu Zhou, Bin Li & Yuwen Chen

  3. The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China

    Yu Zhou & Erqing Chai

  4. The First Clinical Medical College of Gansu, University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou, Gansu, China

    Bin Li & Yuwen Chen

  5. Xi’an Trade Union Hospital, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China

    Yichuan Zhang

  6. Key Laboratory of Cerebrovascular Diseases in Gansu Province, Gansu Provincial Hospital, Lanzhou, China

    Erqing Chai

Authors
  1. Yong Ma
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  2. Yu Zhou
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  3. Bin Li
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  4. Yichuan Zhang
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  5. Yuwen Chen
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  6. Erqing Chai
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Contributions

Idea and study design: Yong Ma and Erqing Chai. Data acquisition: Yong Ma, Yu Zhou, Bin Li, and Yuwen Chen. Statistical analysis: Yong Ma, Yichuan Zhang. Manuscript writing: Yong Ma. The following authors contributed equally: Yong Ma, Bin Li, and Yu Zhou.

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Correspondence to Erqing Chai.

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Ma, Y., Zhou, Y., Li, B. et al. A nomogram predicting the relationship between recanalization time and successful endovascular recanalization of non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion in a Chinese population. Neurosurg Rev 47, 38 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10143-024-02282-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10143-024-02282-7

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