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Impact of global warming on European tidal estuaries: some evidence of northward migration of estuarine fish species

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Abstract

The aim of this study was to determine whether the latitudinal distribution of fish species that use estuaries to complete their entire life cycle has shifted northward as an expected consequence of global warming. The mean latitude of past fish species distributions found in 1970s’ literature was compared with the mean latitude of distributions today based on fish density indices collected in 55 tidal estuaries along the Atlantic European seaboard, from Portugal to Scotland. Among the 15 most common species, 11 displayed a positive difference between current and past mean latitudes suggesting a northward shift of the populations. Using the occurrence of subtropical species in temperate areas as an indicator of water warming, the northernmost range limit of 10 subtropical species was subsequently focused on. Six of them were recorded up to their past northern latitudinal limit. These results reinforced the idea that a number of fish species associated to estuaries have migrated northwards over the last 30 years, possibly due to water warming. These ecological changes can get important managerial implications, i.e. in the assessment of the ecological status in European directives.

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Acknowledgments

This project was supported by the Cemagref institute. The database construction was made possible by the collaboration of all our European partners sharing their WFD fish data: Adam Waugh from Environmental Agency (London, England and Wales data), Jimmy King from Central Fisheries Board of Ireland (Dublin, Republic of Ireland data), Peter Moorehead from Marine Monitoring and Assessment Group/Environment and Heritage Service (Lisburn, Northern Ireland data), Alexis Pearce from Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Edinburgh, Scotland data), Jan Breine from the Flemish Research Institute for Nature and Forest (Groenendaal, Scheldt data), Basque Water Agency (Uragentzia, Basque estuaries data), Maria José Costa and Henrique Cabral from Institute of Oceanography (Lisbon, Portugal data), Rachid Amara and Jonathan Selleslagh from University of Opale littoral coast (Wimereux, French Authie and Canche estuaries data) and Mario Lepage, Michel Girardin and Jacques Massé from Cemagref institute (Cestas, French data). The authors would also like to thank Prof. Olivier Le Pape and anonymous referees for their constructive comments on an early version of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cemagref, UR EPBX, 50 av. de Verdun, 33612, Cestas, France

    Delphine Nicolas, Aurélie Chaalali, Hilaire Drouineau, Jérémy Lobry & Philippe Boët

  2. Marine Research Division, AZTI—Tecnalia, Pasaia, Spain

    Ainhize Uriarte & Angel Borja

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  1. Delphine Nicolas
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  2. Aurélie Chaalali
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  3. Hilaire Drouineau
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Correspondence to Delphine Nicolas.

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Nicolas, D., Chaalali, A., Drouineau, H. et al. Impact of global warming on European tidal estuaries: some evidence of northward migration of estuarine fish species. Reg Environ Change 11, 639–649 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0196-3

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