Decision Making and Management of Dynamic Risk

Abstract:

Managing dynamic environments often requires decision making under uncertainty and risk. Two types of uncertainty are involved: uncertainty about the state and the evolution of the situation, and ‘openness’ of the possible actions to face possible consequences. In an experimental study on risk management in dynamic situations, two contrasted ‘ecological’ scenarios – transposed from effective situations of emergency management – were compared in order to identify the impact of their ‘openness’ in the subjects’ strategies for decision making. The ‘Lost Child’ scenario presented qualitative and irreversible consequences (child’s death) and high uncertainty; it exerted high demands both in risk assessment (risk representation) and action elaboration and choice. A less open situation (‘Hydrocarbon Fire’) required a main choice between two contrasted actions, with quantitative computable consequences. The strategies of ‘experimental subjects’ (university students) and ‘operative subjects’ (professional fire-fighter officers) were compared in order to evaluate the ecological validity of experimental research in this field, from the point of view of the subjects themselves. The two scenarios appeared to be independent, so that quite different models of decision making have to be hypothesised, differing by the importance of assessing risk and defining possible actions on the one hand, and by the process of choice on the other. ‘Experimental’ subjects dramatically differed from ‘operative’ subjects when confronted with the same scenario, particularly for the less technical but more demanding scenario. It is hypothesised that three components might account for the effect of the situations and for the differences between and within groups of subjects: importance of situation assessment, spatial abilities, and global orientation of activity in managing dynamic risk.