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Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

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Abstract

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965–2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by research grant no. 9140 from the Estonian Science Foundation and by the institutional research funding IUT20-11 from the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research. The daily temperature and precipitation data from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis was used in this study. We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia

    Velle Toll & Piia Post

  2. Estonian Environment Agency, Tallinn, Estonia

    Velle Toll

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  1. Velle Toll
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  2. Piia Post
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Correspondence to Velle Toll.

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Toll, V., Post, P. Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis. Theor Appl Climatol 132, 647–662 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2114-9

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