Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Recent studies have showed that there is a significant decrease in rainfall over Greece during the last half of the pervious century, following an overall decrease of the precipitation at the eastern Mediterranean. However, during the last decade an increase in rainfall was observed in most regions of the country, contrary to the general circulation climate models forecasts. An updated high-resolution dataset of monthly sums and annual daily maxima records derived from 136 stations during the period 1940–2012 allowed us to present some new evidence for the observed change and its statistical significance. The statistical framework used to determine the significance of the slopes in annual rain was not limited to the time independency assumption (Mann-Kendall test), but we also investigated the effect of short- and long-term persistence through Monte Carlo simulation. Our findings show that (a) change occurs in different scales; most regions show a decline since 1950, an increase since 1980 and remain stable during the last 15 years; (b) the significance of the observed decline is highly dependent to the statistical assumptions used; there are indications that the Mann-Kendall test may be the least suitable method; and (c) change in time is strongly linked with the change in space; for scales below 40 years, relatively close regions may develop even opposite trends, while in larger scales change is more uniform.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anagnostopoulos G, Koutsoyiannis D, Christofides A, Efstratiadis A, Mamassis N (2010) A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data. Hydrological Sciences Journal–Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques 55:1094–1110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bindoff NL, Stott PA, AchutaRao KM, Allen MR, Gillett N, Gutzler D, Hansingo K, Hegerl G, Hu Y, Jain S, Mokhov II, Overland J, Perlwitz J, Sebbari R, Zhang X (2013) Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Bolle, H.-J. 2003. Mediterranean climate: variability and trends. Springer.

  • Brunetti M, Buffoni L, Maugeri M, Nanni T (2000) Precipitation intensity trends in northern Italy. Int J Climatol 20:1017–1031

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bunde A, Büntgen U, Ludescher J, Luterbacher J, Storch v H (2013) Is there memory in precipitation? Nat Clim Chang 3:174–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bunde, A., Bogachev M. I., and Lennartz S.. 2012. Precipitation and river flow: long-term memory and predictability of extreme events. Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective:139–152.

  • Burn DH, Hag Elnur MA (2002) Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. J Hydrol 255:107–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cannarozzo M, Noto L, Viola F (2006) Spatial distribution of rainfall trends in Sicily (1921–2000). Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 31:1201–1211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohn, T. A., and Lins H. F.. 2005. Nature’s style: Naturally trendy. Geophysical Research Letters 32.

  • Cullen HM, Demenocal PB (2000) North Atlantic influence on Tigris–Euphrates streamflow. Int J Climatol 20:853–863

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dünkeloh A, Jacobeit J (2003) Circulation dynamics of Mediterranean precipitation variability 1948–98. Int J Climatol 23:1843–1866

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eshel G, Farrell BF (2000) Mechanisms of eastern Mediterranean rainfall variability. J Atmos Sci 57:3219–3232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feidas H, Noulopoulou C, Makrogiannis T, Bora-Senta E (2007) Trend analysis of precipitation time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955–2001. Theor Appl Climatol 87:155–177

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fraedrich K, Larnder C (1993) Scaling regimes of composite rainfall time series. Tellus A 45:289–298

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gemmer M, Becker S, Jiang T (2004) Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 1951–2002. Theor Appl Climatol 77:39–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • González-Hidalgo J, De Luis M, Raventós J, Sánchez J (2001) Spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall trends in a western Mediterranean area. Int J Climatol 21:843–860

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gouvas M, Sakellariou N, Xystrakis F (2009) The relationship between altitude of meteorological stations and average monthly and annual precipitation. Stud Geophys Geod 53:557–570

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Griggs DJ, Noguer M (2002) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Weather 57:267–269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamed KH, Ramachandra Rao A (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204:182–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hatzaki M, Flocas HA, Asimakopoulos DN, Maheras P (2007) The eastern Mediterranean teleconnection pattern: identification and definition. Int J Climatol 27(6):727–737

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hatzaki M, Flocas HA, Giannakopoulos C, Maheras P (2009) The impact of the eastern Mediterranean teleconnection pattern on the Mediterranean climate. J Clim 22(4):977–992

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J. T. 1996. Climate change 1995: The science of climate change: contribution of working group I to the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

  • Iliopoulou T., Papalexiou S. M. , Markonis Y. and Koutsoyiannis D., 2016, Revisiting long-range dependence in annual precipitation, Journal of Hydrology, in press.

  • Hurrell, J. W. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676–679.

  • Hurst HE (1951) Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. Trans Amer Soc Civil Eng 116:770–808

    Google Scholar 

  • Kambezidis HD, Larissi IK, Nastos PT, Paliatsos AG (2010) Spatial variability and trends of the rain intensity over Greece. Adv Geosci 26:65–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kantelhardt, J. W., Koscielny-Bunde E., Rybski D., P. Braun, Bunde A., and Havlin S.. 2006. Long-term persistence and multifractality of precipitation and river runoff records. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 111.

  • Kendall, M. G. 1948. Rank correlation methods.

  • Kolmogorov, A. N. 1940. Wienersche Spiralen und einige andere interessante Kurven im Hilbertschen Raum. Pages 115–118 in CR (Dokl.) Acad. Sci URSS.

  • Kostopoulou E, Jones P (2005) Assessment of climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean. Meteorog Atmos Phys 89:69–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kostopoulou E, Jones PD (2007) Comprehensive analysis of the climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. Part II: relationships between atmospheric circulation patterns and surface climatic elements. Int J Climatol 27:1351–1371

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koutsoyiannis D (2002) The Hurst phenomenon and fractional Gaussian noise made easy. Hydrol Sci J 47:573–595

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koutsoyiannis D (2003) Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics. Hydrol Sci J 48:3–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koutsoyiannis D, Efstratiadis A, Mamassis N, Christofides A (2008) On the credibility of climate predictions. Hydrol Sci J 53:671–684

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koutsoyiannis D, Montanari A (2007) Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: uncertainty and insights. Water Resour Res 43

  • Koutsoyiannis D (2011) Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics as a result of extremal entropy production. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 390(8):1424–1432

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krichak SO, Alpert P (2005) Decadal trends in the East Atlantic–West Russia pattern and Mediterranean precipitation. Int J Climatol 25:183–192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kulkarni A, von Storch H (1995) Monte Carlo experiments on the effect of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test of trend. Meteorol Z 4:82–85

  • Kutiel H, Maheras P, Guika S (1996) Circulation indices over the Mediterranean and Europe and their relationship with rainfall conditions across the Mediterranean. Theor Appl Climatol 54:125–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Wallis JR (1994) Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States, 1948-88. J Clim 7:586–607

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lionello, P. 2012. The climate of the Mediterranean Region: from the past to the future. Elsevier.

  • Maheras, P., and Anagnostopoulou C.. 2003. Circulation types and their influence on the interannual variability and precipitation changes in Greece. Pages 215–239 in Bolle H.-J., editor. Mediterranean climate Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg.

  • Maheras P, Tolika K, Anagnostopoulou C, Vafiadis M, Patrikas I, Flocas H (2004) On the relationships between circulation types and changes in rainfall variability in Greece. Int J Climatol 24:1695–1712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Malliaros, A. 2013. Investigation of climate variability accordance with the classification KÖPPEN. Thesis. National Technical Universitu of Athens.

  • Mann, H. B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society:245–259.

  • Mariotti A. 2011, Decadal Climate Variability and Change in the Mediterranean Region, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Test Bed Joint Seminar Series, NCEP, Maryland, USA.

  • Markonis Y, Koutsoyiannis D (2013) Climatic variability over time scales spanning nine orders of magnitude: connecting Milankovitch cycles with Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics. Surv Geophys 34:181–207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Markonis Y, Koutsoyiannis D (2016) Scale-dependence of persistence in precipitation records. Nat Clim Chang 6(4):399–401

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nastos PT (2011) Trends and variability of precipitation within the Mediterranean region, based on global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) and ground based datasets. In: Lambrakis N, Stournaras G, Katsanou K (eds) Advances in the research of aquatic environment. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 67–74

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Norrant C, Douguédroit A (2006) Monthly and daily precipitation trends in the Mediterranean (1950–2000). Theor Appl Climatol 83:89–106

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Partal T, Kahya E (2006) Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrol Process 20:2011–2026

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pelletier JD, Turcotte DL (1997) Long-range persistence in climatological and hydrological time series: analysis, modeling and application to drought hazard assessment. J Hydrol 203:198–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Philandras CM, Nastos PT, Kapsomenakis J, Douvis KC, Tselioudis G, Zerefos CS (2011) Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:3235–3250

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • R Core Team. 2014. R: a language and environment for statistical computing.

  • Rodrigo F, Trigo RM (2007) Trends in daily rainfall in the Iberian peninsula from 1951 to 2002. Int J Climatol 27:513–529

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Serrano A, Mateos V, Garcia J (1999) Trend analysis of monthly precipitation over the Iberian peninsula for the period 1921–1995. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere 24:85–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, S. 2007. Climate change 2007—the physical science basis: working group I contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press.

  • Stephenson DB, Pavan V, Bojariu R (2000) Is the North Atlantic oscillation a random walk? Int J Climatol 20:1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Intergovernmental panel on climate change, working group I contribution to the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). Cambridge Univ Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Tolika K, Anagnostopoulou C, Maheras P, Kutiel H (2007) Extreme precipitation related to circulation types for four case studies over the eastern Mediterranean. Adv Geosci 12:87–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsekouras G, Koutsoyiannis D (2014) Stochastic analysis and simulation of hydrometeorological processes associated with wind and solar energy. Renew Energy 63:624–633

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsonis A, Roebber P (2004) The architecture of the climate network. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 333:497–504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tyralis H, Koutsoyiannis D (2011) Simultaneous estimation of the parameters of the Hurst–Kolmogorov stochastic process. Stoch Env Res Risk A 25:21–33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xoplaki E, González-Rouco JF, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2004) Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large-scale dynamics and trends. Clim Dyn 23:63–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xoplaki E, Luterbacher J, Burkard R, Patrikas I, Maheras P (2000) Connection between the large-scale 500 hPa geopotential height fields and precipitation over Greece during wintertime. Clim Res 14:129–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu Z, Gong T, Li J (2008) Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan plateau—regional temperature and precipitation. Hydrol Process 22:3056–3065

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhai Y, Guo Y, Zhou J, Guo N, Wang J, Teng Y (2014) The spatio-temporal variability of annual precipitation and its local impact factors during 1724–2010 in Beijing, China. Hydrol Process 28:2192–2201

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

Y. Markonis and D. Koutsoyiannis would like to acknowledge that they have been financed by the European Union (European Social Fund—ESF) and the Greek national funds through the Operational Program “Education and Lifelong Learning” of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF)—Research Funding Program: ARISTEIA II: Reinforcement of the interdisciplinary and/or inter-institutional research and innovation (CRESSENDO project; grant number 5145).

The authors would like also would like to thank Prof. N. Mamassis for his valuable comments and advise, as well as the anonymous reviewers for their constructive remarks.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechneiou 5, 157 80, Athens, Greece

    Y. Markonis, S. C. Batelis, Y. Dimakos, E. Moschou & D. Koutsoyiannis

Authors
  1. Y. Markonis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. S. C. Batelis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Y. Dimakos
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. E. Moschou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. D. Koutsoyiannis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Y. Markonis.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Markonis, Y., Batelis, S.C., Dimakos, Y. et al. Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Greece. Theor Appl Climatol 130, 217–232 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1878-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1878-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation