Abstract
Extreme temperature events are known to favor large wildland fires. It is expected that fire activity will increase with changing climate. This work analyzes the effects of high-temperature days on medium and large fires (those larger than 50 ha) from 1978 to 2010 in Spain. A high-temperature day was defined as being when air temperature at 850 hPa was higher than the 95th percentile of air temperature at that elevation from June to September across the years 1978–2010. Temperature at 850 hPa was chosen because it properly characterizes the state of the lower troposphere. The effects of high temperature on forest fires were remarkable and significant in terms of fire number (15 % of total large fires occurred under high-temperature days) and burned area (25 % of the total burned area occurred under high-temperature days). Fire size was also significantly higher under the 95th percentile air temperature at 850 hPa, and a large part of the largest fires in the past 20 years were under these extreme conditions. Additionally, both burned area and fire number only decreased under non-high-temperature days in the study period and not under high-temperature conditions.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
AEMET (2011) Iberian climate atlas. Air temperature and precipitation (1971–2000), State Meteorological Agency of Spain and Department of Meteorology and Climatology of the Institute of Meteorology, Portugal, 80pp.
Arca B, Duce P, Laconi M, Pellizzaro G, Salis M, Spano D (2007) Evaluation of FARSITE simulator in Mediterranean maquis. Int J Wildland Fire 16:563–572
Arpaci A, Eastaugh CS, Vacik H (2013) Selecting the best performing fire weather indices for Austrian Ecozones. Theor Appl Climatol 114(3/4):393–406
Bardají M, Molina D (1999) Interregional comparative analysis of wildland fires in Spain. Analisis comparativo interregional de los incendios forestales en la España Peninsular. Investigacion Agraria, Sistemas y Recursos Forestales 8: 151–170
Barriopedro D, Fischer EM, Luterbacher J, Trigo RM, García-Herrera R (2011) The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science 332:220–224
Bedia J, Herrera S, Gutierrez JM (2014) Assessing the predictability of fire occurrence and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14:53–66
Cardil A, Molina DM (2013) Large wildland fires in three diverse regions in Spain from 1978 to 2010. For Syst 22(3):526–534
Cardil A, Molina DM, Ramirez J, Vega-García C (2013) Trends in adverse weather patterns and large wildland fires in Aragón (NE Spain) from 1978 to 2010. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:1393–1399
Cardil A, Salis M, Spano D, Delogu G, Molina Terrén D (2014) Large wildland fires and extreme temperatures in Sardinia (Italy). iForest 7: 162–169
Charney JJ, Keyser D (2010) Mesoscale model simulation of the meteorological conditions during the 2 June 2002 double trouble state park wildfire. Int J Wildland Fire 19:427–448
Crimmins MA (2006) Synoptic climatology of extreme fire-weather conditions across the southwest United States. Int J Climatol 26:1001–1016
Eastaugh CS, Hasenauer H (2014) Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling. Environ Model Softw. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.018
Eastaugh CS, Molina D (2011) Forest road networks: metrics for coverage, efficiency and convenience. Aust For 74(1):54–61
Eastaugh CS, Molina DM (2012) Forest road and fuelbreak siting with respect to reference fire intensities. For Syst 21(1):153–161
Eastaugh CS, Vacik H (2012) Fire size/frequency modelling as a means of assessing wildfire database reliability. Austrian J For Sci 129(3/4):228–247
Eastaugh CS, Arpaci A, Vacik H (2012) A cautionary note regarding comparisons of fire danger indices. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:927–934
Flannigan MD, Krawchuk MA, de Groot WJ, Wotton BM, Gowman LM (2009) Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. Int J Wildland Fire 18:483–507
Ganteaume A, Jappiot M (2012) What causes large fires in Southern France. For Ecol Manag 294:76–85
García-Ortega E, Trobajo MT, López L, Sánchez JL (2011) Synoptic patterns associated with wildfires caused by lightning in Castile and Leon, Spain. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:851–863
Giannakopoulos C, Le Sager P, Bindi M, Moriondo M, Kostopoulou E, Goodess CM (2009) Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 °C global warming. Glob Planet Chang 68:209–224
IPCC (2007) IPCC fourth assessment report: climatic change 2007. Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm [Verified 5 March 2014]
JRC-IES (2010) Forest fires in Europe. European Union, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Scientific and Technical Research series, Report Number 11. Luxembourg
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KJ, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471
Kron W, Steuer M, Löw P, Wirtz A (2012) How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database—analysis of flood losses. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:535–550
Kuglitsch FG, Toreti A, Xoplaki E, Della-Marta PM, Zerefos CS, Türkeş M, Luterbacher J (2010) Heat wave changes in the eastern Mediterranean since 1960. Geophys Res Lett 37:L04802. doi:10.1029/2009GL041841
Marino E, Hernando C, Planelles R, Madrigal J, Guijarro M, Sebastian A (2013) Forest fuel management for wildfire prevention in Spain: a quantitative SWOT analysis. Int J Wildland Fire. doi:10.1071/WF12203
Mills GA (2005) A re-examination of the synoptic and mesoscale meteorology of Ash Wednesday 1983. Aust Meteorol Mag 54:35–55
Molina DM, Castellnou M, Garcia-Marco D, Salgueiro A (2010) Improving fire management success through fire behaviour specialists. Research Report – European Forest Institute (EFI), 105–119
Montserrat D (1998) Situaciones sinópticas relacionadas con el inicio de grandes incendios forestales en Cataluña. NIMBUS 1–2:93–112
Moreno JM (2005) Impactos sobre los riesgos naturales. Riesgo de incendios forestales. Evaluación preliminar de los impactos en España por Efecto del Cambio climático. Spanish Ministry of the Environment, 581–615
Moriondo M, Good P, Durao R, Bindi M, Giannakopoulos C, Corte-Real J (2006) Potential impact of climate change on fire risk in the Mediterranean area. Clim Res 31:85–95
Ogi M, Yamazaki K, Tachibana Y (2005) The summer northern annular mode and abnormal summer weather in 2003. Geophys Res Lett 32:L04706
Padilla M, Vega-García C (2011) On the comparative importance of fire danger rating indices and their integration with spatial and temporal variables for predicting daily human-caused fire occurrences in Spain. Int J Wildland Fire 20:46–58
Pereira MG, Malamud BD, Trigo RM, Alves PJ (2011) The history and characteristics of the 1980–2005 Portuguese rural fire database. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:3343–3358
Prestemon JP, Donovan GH (2008) Forecasting resource allocation decisions under climate uncertainty: fire suppression with assessment of net benefits of research. Am J Agric Econ 90(4):1118–1129
Regato P (2008) Adapting to global change: Mediterranean forests. IUCN Centre for Mediterranean Cooperation. Malaga, Spain
Riaño D, Ruiz JA, Isidoro D, Ustin SL (2007) Global spatial patterns and temporal trends of burned area between 1981 and 2000 using NOAA-NASA Pathfinder. Glob Chang Biol 13:40–50
Rodriguez-Puebla C, Encinas AH, García-Casado LA, Nieto S (2010) Trends in warm days and cold nights over the Iberian Peninsula: relationships to large-scale variables. Clim Chang 100:667–684
Salis M, Ager AA, Arca B, Finney MA, Bacciu V, Duce P, Spano D (2013) Assessing exposure of human and ecological values to wildfire in Sardinia, Italy. Int J Wildland Fire 22:549–565
Salis M, Ager AA, Finney MA, Arca B, Spano D (2014) Analyzing spatiotemporal changes in wildfire regime and exposure across a Mediterranean fire-prone area. Nat Hazards 71:1389–1418
Sánchez Gómez E, Ortiz Beviá MJ (2003) Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic 850-hPa air temperature anomalies using singular vectors. Mon Weather Rev 131:3061–3068
Trigo RM, Trigo IM, DaCamara CC, Osborn TJ (2004) Winter blocking episodes in the European-Atlantic sector: climate impacts and associated physical mechanisms in the reanalysis. Clim Dyn 23:17–28
Trigo RM, García-Herrera R, Díaz J, Trigo IF, Valente MA (2005) How exceptional was the early August 2003 heatwave in France? Geophys Res Lett 32:L10701. doi:10.1029/2005GL022410
Trigo RM, Pereira JM, Mota B, Calado T, Dacamara C, Santo F (2006) Atmospheric conditions associated with the exceptional fire season of 2003 in Portugal. Int J Climatol 26:1741–1757
Trouet V, Taylor AH, Carleton AM, Skinner CN (2009) Interannual variations in fire weather, fire extent, and synoptic-scale circulation patterns in northern California and Oregon. Theor Appl Climatol 95:349–360
Vega-García C, Chuvieco E (2006) Applying local measures of spatial heterogeneity to Landsat-TM images for predicting wildfire occurrence in Mediterranean landscapes. Landsc Ecol 21:595–605
Acknowledgments
We are appreciative to the University of Lleida for supporting this study through a partial grant to fund Adrian Cardil’s Ph.D. studies.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Cardil, A., Eastaugh, C.S. & Molina, D.M. Extreme temperature conditions and wildland fires in Spain. Theor Appl Climatol 122, 219–228 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1295-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1295-8