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Observed changes of temperature extremes during 1960–2005 in China: natural or human-induced variations?

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to statistically examine changes of surface air temperature in time and space and to analyze two factors potentially influencing air temperature changes in China, i.e., urbanization and net solar radiation. Trends within the temperature series were detected by using Mann-Kendall trend test technique. The scientific problem this study expected to address was that what could be the role of human activities in the changes of temperature extremes. Other influencing factors such as net solar radiation were also discussed. The results of this study indicated that: (1) increasing temperature was observed mainly in the northeast and northwest China; (2) different behaviors were identified in the changes of maximum and minimum temperature respectively. Maximum temperature seemed to be more influenced by urbanization, which could be due to increasing urban albedo, aerosol, and air pollutions in the urbanized areas. Minimum temperature was subject to influences of variations of net solar radiation; (3) not significant increasing and even decreasing temperature extremes in the Yangtze River basin and the regions south to the Yangtze River basin could be the consequences of higher relative humidity as a result of increasing precipitation; (4) the entire China was dominated by increasing minimum temperature. Thus, we can say that the warming process of China was reflected mainly by increasing minimum temperature. In addition, consistently increasing temperature was found in the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin, the Yangtze River basin, which have the potential to enhance the melting of permafrost in these areas. This may trigger new ecological problems and raise new challenges for the river basin scale water resource management.

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Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 41071020, 50839005), Project of the Guangdong Science and Technology Department (grant no. 2010B050800001, 2010B050300010), the Program for Outstanding Young Teachers of the Sun Yat-sen University (grant no. 2009-37000-1132381). We would like to thank the National Climate Centre in Beijing for providing the climate data. Cordial thanks should be extended to the editor-in-chief, Prof. Dr. Hartmut Grassl, and two anonymous reviewers for their pertinent and professional comments and suggestions which greatly improved the quality of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Qiang Zhang, Jianfeng Li & Xiaohong Chen

  2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Qiang Zhang, Jianfeng Li & Xiaohong Chen

  3. Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

    Yongqin David Chen

  4. Centre of Strategic Environmental Assessment for China, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

    Yongqin David Chen

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  1. Qiang Zhang
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  2. Jianfeng Li
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  4. Xiaohong Chen
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Correspondence to Qiang Zhang.

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Zhang, Q., Li, J., David Chen, Y. et al. Observed changes of temperature extremes during 1960–2005 in China: natural or human-induced variations?. Theor Appl Climatol 106, 417–431 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0447-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0447-3

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