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Risk Assessment and Prediction of Flyrock Distance by Combined Multiple Regression Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation of Quarry Blasting

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Abstract

Flyrock is considered as one of the main causes of human injury, fatalities, and structural damage among all undesirable environmental impacts of blasting. Therefore, it seems that the proper prediction/simulation of flyrock is essential, especially in order to determine blast safety area. If proper control measures are taken, then the flyrock distance can be controlled, and, in return, the risk of damage can be reduced or eliminated. The first objective of this study was to develop a predictive model for flyrock estimation based on multiple regression (MR) analyses, and after that, using the developed MR model, flyrock phenomenon was simulated by the Monte Carlo (MC) approach. In order to achieve objectives of this study, 62 blasting operations were investigated in Ulu Tiram quarry, Malaysia, and some controllable and uncontrollable factors were carefully recorded/calculated. The obtained results of MC modeling indicated that this approach is capable of simulating flyrock ranges with a good level of accuracy. The mean of simulated flyrock by MC was obtained as 236.3 m, while this value was achieved as 238.6 m for the measured one. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was also conducted to investigate the effects of model inputs on the output of the system. The analysis demonstrated that powder factor is the most influential parameter on fly rock among all model inputs. It is noticeable that the proposed MR and MC models should be utilized only in the studied area and the direct use of them in the other conditions is not recommended.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to express their sincere appreciation to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable and constructive suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geotechnics and Transportation, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia

    Danial Jahed Armaghani

  2. Department of Structure and Material, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia

    Amir Mahdiyar

  3. Department of Mining Engineering, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran

    Mahdi Hasanipanah

  4. Faculty of Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, 14115-143, Iran

    Roohollah Shirani Faradonbeh

  5. Faculty of Science and Technology, Federation University Australia, PO Box 663, Ballarat, VIC, 3353, Australia

    Manoj Khandelwal

  6. School of Mining, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, 11155-4563, Iran

    Hassan Bakhshandeh Amnieh

Authors
  1. Danial Jahed Armaghani
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  2. Amir Mahdiyar
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  3. Mahdi Hasanipanah
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  4. Roohollah Shirani Faradonbeh
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  5. Manoj Khandelwal
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  6. Hassan Bakhshandeh Amnieh
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Correspondence to Manoj Khandelwal.

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Armaghani, D.J., Mahdiyar, A., Hasanipanah, M. et al. Risk Assessment and Prediction of Flyrock Distance by Combined Multiple Regression Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation of Quarry Blasting. Rock Mech Rock Eng 49, 3631–3641 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00603-016-1015-z

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