Abstract
Rice is currently benefiting from climate warming in Northeast China, but whether such positive effect will continue in the future remains unknown. Here, we evaluate the impacts of individual and combined climate variables on rice yields in Northeast China during 1980–2015. Results show that there is 10% yield increase induced by climate change in Northeast China since 1980. At present, the reduced chilling results in 5.4% yield increase (approximately 28,000 tons) and the higher growing degree-day contributes to 4.6% yield increase (approximately 24,000 tons), while the high-temperature extreme reduced yield by 0.054% (approximately 280 tons). However, with continuous warming, the harmful impact of such high-temperature extreme will outweigh other positive climate effects when the temperature increases by 3.36 °C. Therefore, high-temperature extremes cannot be ignored despite their influence on rice yield being quite limited at present in Northeast China. Climate change mitigation and heat tolerance breeding are thus necessary for rice production in Northeast China.
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Data availability
County-level rice yield statistics data in Northeast China can be requested from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. Climate data recorded at observatory sites were from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System (http://cdc.cma.gov.cn).
Code availability
R language was used to process the data and plot the figures.
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Funding
This work was funded by the National Key Research and Development Project (2019YFA0607402), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31661143012), and the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility (EarthLab).
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Conceptualization: Tianyi Zhang. Methodology: Xin Dong and Tianyi Zhang. Formal analysis and investigation: Xin Dong, Tianyi Zhang, Xiaoguang Yang, Tao Li. Writing—original draft preparation: Xin Dong and Tianyi Zhang. Writing—review and editing: Xin Dong, Tianyi Zhang, Xiaoguang Yang, Tao Li, Xichen Li. Funding acquisition: Tianyi Zhang and Xiaoguang Yang.
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Dong, X., Zhang, T., Yang, X. et al. Rice yield benefits from historical climate warming to be negated by extreme heat in Northeast China. Int J Biometeorol 67, 835–846 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02458-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-023-02458-8