Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Spatial patterns of malaria case burden and seasonal precipitation in India during 1995–2013

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Biometeorology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The majority of malaria cases in Southeast Asia occur in India. It is a major public health problem in India, which accounts for substantial morbidity, mortality, and economic loss. The spatial distribution of malaria widely varies due to geo-ecological diversity, multi-ethnicity, and wide distribution of the different anopheline vectors. The predominant malaria parasites in India for malaria are P. Falciparum (Pf) and P. Vivax (Pv). This study analyzes the spatial patterns of malaria cases, specifically the two dominant malaria vectors, at the regional level and its relation to seasonal precipitation. The results of our study revealed an overall decline in malaria cases in the later years. The spatial spread of malaria cases was more widespread during the normal monsoon years vs drought years, which can be attributed to more conducive environment for mosquitos to breed. The correlation analysis revealed a stronger correlation between malaria case burden and monsoon precipitation. Spatially, the strongest correlation between seasonal and annual precipitation, and malaria case burden were located across the northern plains and northeast India. The results of this research further our understanding of the relationship between seasonal precipitation and malaria case burden at the regional level across India.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Baghbanzadeh M, Kumar D, Yavasoglu SI, Manning S, Hanafi-Bojd AA, Ghasemzadeh H, Sikder I, Kumar D, Murmu N, Haque U (2020) Malaria epidemics in India: Role of climatic condition and control measures. Sci Total Environ 712:136368

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Bhattacharya S, Sharma C, Dhiman RC, Mitra AP (2006) Climate change and malaria in India. Curr Sci 90(3):369–375

    Google Scholar 

  • Bódai T, Drótos G, Herein M, Lunkeit F, Lucarini V (2020) The forced response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation–Indian monsoon teleconnection in ensembles of Earth System Models. J Clim 33(6):2163–2182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bouma MJ, van der Kaay HJ (1996) The EI Niño Southern Oscillation and the historic malaria epidemics on the Indian subcontinent and Sri Lanka: an early warning system for future epidemics? Tropical Med Int Health 1(1):86–96

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Das BP, Rajagopal R, Akiyama J (1990) Pictorial key to the species of Indian anopheline mosquitoes. J Pure Appl Zool 2:131–162

    Google Scholar 

  • Dash AP, Valecha N, Anvikar AR, Kumar A (2008) Malaria in India: challenges and opportunities. J Biosci 33(4):583–592

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • De Alwis R, Wijesundere A, Ramasamy MS, Ramasamy R (1990) Epidemiology of malaria in Aralaganvila in the Polonnaruwa district. In: Kandy RR (ed) Current status of malaria research in Sri Lanka. Institute of fundamental studies, pp 80–84

    Google Scholar 

  • Dev V, Sharma VP. (2013). The dominant mosquito vectors of human malaria in India. In: Manguin S, editor. Anopheles Mosquitoes: New Insights into Malaria Vectors. Croatia: InTech Open Access. 239–271. https://doi.org/10.5772/55215

  • Devi NP, Jauhari RK (2008) Reappraisal on anopheline mosquitoes of Garhwal region, Uttarakhand. India J Vector Borne Dis 45(2):112

    Google Scholar 

  • Dhiman RC, Sarkar S (2017) El Niño Southern Oscillation as an early warning tool for malaria outbreaks in India. Malar J 16(1):1–7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dhiman S, Veer V, Dev V (2018) Declining transmission of malaria in India: accelerating towards elimination. Rijeka: InTech. https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=AG-QDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA257&dq=Dhiman+S,+Veer+V.+and+Dev+V+(2018)+Declining+transmission+of+malaria+in+India:+accelerating+towards+elimination.+Towards+Malaria+Elimination%E2%80%93A+leap+forward.+Manguin+S+and+Dev+V+(Eds.),+InTechOpen+London.257%E2%80%93280&ots=OBzaScVwNR&sig=I8CL7AZlR3cfVJrqrxU2FVj-dIo#v=onepage&q&f=false

  • Gill CA (1920) The role of meteorology and malaria. Ind J Med Res 8:633–693

    Google Scholar 

  • Gill CA (1921) The relationship between malaria and rainfall. Indian J Med Res 8(4):618–632

    Google Scholar 

  • IITM. 2021. Interannual Variations of Indian Summer Monsoon. Accessed on March 26, 2021: https://www.tropmet.res.in/~kolli/MOL/Monsoon/Historical/air.html.

  • Kumar A, Valecha N, Jain T, Dash AP (2007) Burden of malaria in India: retrospective and prospective view. Am J Trop Med Hyg 77(6):69–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar V, Mangal A, Panesar S, Yadav G, Talwar R, Raut D, Singh S (2014) Forecasting malaria cases using climatic factors in Delhi, India: a time series analysis. Malaria Res Treat 2014:482851. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/482851

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar P, Vatsa R, Sarthi PP, Kumar M, Gangare V (2020) Modeling an association between malaria cases and climate variables for Keonjhar district of Odisha, India: a Bayesian approach. J Parasit Dis 44(2):319–331

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lal AA, Rajvanshi H, Jayswar H, Das A, Bharti PK (2019) Malaria elimination: Using past and present experience to make malaria-free India by 2030. J Vector Borne Dis 56(1):60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mendis C, Gamage-Mendis AC, De Zoysa AP, Abhayawardena TA, Carter R, Herath PR, Mendis KN (1990) Characteristics of malaria transmission in Kataragama, Sri Lanka: a focus for immunoepidemiological studies. Am J Trop Med Hyg 42:298–308

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Mukherjee A, Wang SYS, Promchote P (2019) Examination of the climate factors that reduced wheat yield in Northwest India during the 2000s. Water 11(2):343

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nath DC, Mwchahary DD (2012) Association between climatic variables and malaria incidence: a study in Kokrajhar District of Assam, India. Global J Health Sci 5:90–106. https://doi.org/10.5539/gjhs.v5n1p90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Narain JP, Nath LM (2018) Eliminating malaria in India by 2027: The countdown begins! Indian J Med Res 148(2):123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1994) All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993. Theor Appl Climatol 49(4):217–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy B, Sontakke NA, Monot AA, Kothawale DR (1987) Droughts/floods in the summer monsoon season over different meteorological subdivisions of India for the period 1871–1984. Int J Climatol 7(1):57–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pradhan MM, Meherda PK (2019) Malaria elimination drive in Odisha: Hope for halting the transmission. J Vector Borne Dis 56(1):53

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sarkar S, Gangare V, Singh P, Dhiman RC (2019) Shift in potential malaria transmission areas in India, using the fuzzy-based climate suitability malaria transmission (FCSMT) model under changing climatic conditions. Int J Environ Res Public Health 16(18):3474

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sen Roy S (2011) The role of the north atlantic oscillation in shaping regional scale peak seasonal precipitation across the Indian subcontinent. Earth Interact 15. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010EI339.1

  • Sen Roy S (2022) Spatial patterns of Malaria incidence in India: 1995-2013. Geo J. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-022-10624-5

  • Sen Roy S, Mahmood R, Quintanar AI, Gonzalez A (2011) Impacts of irrigation on dry season precipitation in India. Theoret Appl Climatol 104:193–207. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0338-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharma VP (1996) Re-emergence of malaria in India. Indian J Med Res 103:26–45

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Terray P, Sooraj KP, Masson S, Prodhomme C (2021) Anatomy of the Indian Summer Monsoon and ENSO relationships in state-of-the-art CGCMs: Role of the tropical Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 56(1):329–356

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography & Sustainable Development, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA

    Shouraseni Sen Roy

Authors
  1. Shouraseni Sen Roy
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shouraseni Sen Roy.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The author declares no competing interests.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Roy, S.S. Spatial patterns of malaria case burden and seasonal precipitation in India during 1995–2013. Int J Biometeorol 67, 157–164 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02395-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02395-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation