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Flood coincidence analysis of Poyang Lake and Yangtze River: risk and influencing factors

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Abstract

We build copula function-based joint distribution models for the annual maximum flood peaks of the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake, to analyze the coincidence probabilities, using scenarios that combine with the impoundment of three Gorges, define influencing indexes and relative contribution rates on flood coincidence at varying frequencies. The study shows the probabilities for coincidence of floods with 1000, 100, and 10-year return periods in both Yangtze main stem and Poyang Lake are respectively 0.02, 0.19 and 2.87%, with higher coincidence probabilities for shorter return periods; when 1000-year flood occurs in the Yangtze, the probabilities for Poyang Lake to encounter flood of the 1000, 100, or 10-year magnitude are higher than 16.08, 42.48 or 74.77% respectively; Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence is affected by operation of the hydraulic engineering. The lowering of flood peaks caused by the Three Gorges impoundment and regulation of the lake have respectively reduced the probabilities of Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence by about 7.0 and 1.97%, with average relative contribution rates − 33.82 and − 17.1%; influenced by hydrological projects in Poyang basin, variations in Poyang’s inflow flood have displayed an average contribution rate of 20.4% for the negative effect on extreme (P < 5% or P > 90%) flood coincidence, while having a positive contribution rate of 38.2% on floods of other return periods. The results can help increase our understanding of flood coincidence, and support flood control efforts in Poyang Lake; its analytical approach may also be useful to other applications of copula functions.

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Acknowledgements

The authors appreciate Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission for the support of data. This research work is financially supported by The National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFC0400901) and the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (Grant No. 2012CB417001) and the National Science Foundation of China (No. 51279143). Thanks for anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestion on the quality improvement of our present paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China

    Bing Jianping, Zhang Xiang & Xiao Yi

  2. Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan, 430010, China

    Bing Jianping, Deng Pengxin & Lv Sunyun

  3. Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

    Marco Marani & Xiao Yi

Authors
  1. Bing Jianping
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  2. Deng Pengxin
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  3. Zhang Xiang
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  4. Lv Sunyun
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  5. Marco Marani
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  6. Xiao Yi
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Correspondence to Zhang Xiang.

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Jianping, B., Pengxin, D., Xiang, Z. et al. Flood coincidence analysis of Poyang Lake and Yangtze River: risk and influencing factors. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 32, 879–891 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1514-4

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