Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Multiple failure modes-based practical calculation model on comprehensive risk for levee structure

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Risk calculation of levee in the complex environment has significant theoretical values and practical meanings. As there still exists problems in present risk calculation models, a simple and efficient calculation model of the comprehensive levee risk is needed to be established. This paper studies the comprehensive risk calculation model of levee with multiple failure modes based on the analysis of levee instability and seepage failure. Firstly, coupling calculation of the seepage field and stress field is made using the finite element method, and safety factor of levee slope and critical failure hydraulic gradient of levee foundation are determined according to the strength reduction and piping theory. Then, particle swarm optimization is applied to conduct a comparative study on potential impact factors of levee stability and seepage, thus to determine explicit expressions for instability of levee body and seepage failure of levee foundation. Finally, Monte Carlo method is introduced to simulate the levee structure stochastically and calculated the comprehensive levee risk. Calculation results of the example show that the risk calculation method proposed in this paper has higher computational efficiency and can provide references for the decision of levee reinforcement.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16
Fig. 17

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Baecher GB, Christian JT (2003) Reliability and statistics in geotechnical engineering. Wiley, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Balas CE, Ergin A (2002) Reliability-based risk assessment in coastal projects: case study in Turkey. J Waterw Port Coast Ocean Eng ASCE 128(2):52–61

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Basser H, Karami H, Shamshirband S (2015) Hybrid ANFIS-PSO approach for predicting optimum parameters of a protective spur dike. Appl Soft Comput J 30:642–649

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benjasupattananan S (2013) Deterministic and probabilistic approaches for modeling levee underseepage. Dissertations and theses—gradworks

  • Bogardi JJ (1974) Determination of the degree of protection offered by flood control systems on the basis of distribution functions. In: Mathematical models in hydrology: proceedings of the Warsaw Symposium, pp. 246–252

  • Bogdanowicz E, Strupczewski WG, Kochanek K, Markiewicz I (2014) Flood risk for embanked rivers. J Geosci Environ Prot 2(3):135–143

    Google Scholar 

  • Gao Y, Zhang J (2011) Influencing factors analysis for failure risk of upstream revetment of existing levees. Adv Mater Res 250–253:2843–2847

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guang-Ming XU, Gao CS, Ling Z, Yang SH (2005) Preliminary study of stability of levee on soft ground. Chin J Rock Mech Eng 24(13):2315–2321

    Google Scholar 

  • Ji Z, Li N, Xie W, Wu J, Zhou Y (2013) Comprehensive assessment of flood risk using the classification and regression tree method. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 27(8):1815–1828

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jinyu L, Qing Y, Maotian L (2010) Limit equilibrium analysis of the influence of matric suction on unsaturated soil slope stability. J Converg Inf Technol 5(10):167–175

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnson PA (1996) Uncertainty of hydraulic parameters. J Hydraul Eng ASCE 122(2):112–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lázaro JM, Navarro JÁS, Gil AG, Romero VE, Mateo JC (2016) Modelling and layout of drainage-levee devices in river sections. Eng Geol 214:11–19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Zhang S (2002) Theory and simulation of fluid–solid coupling flow through low permeability fractured oil reservoir. Acta Mech Sin 34(5):779–784

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Xie D, Cui Y (2008) Failure mechanism of seepage in levees with double-layer foundation. J Hydraul Eng 39(11):1211–1220

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu C, Ding L, Sun D (2012) Model test and numerical analysis of piping erosion process in single-stratum dike foundations. China Civ Eng J 45(8):140–147

    Google Scholar 

  • Orlandini S, Moretti G, Albertson JD (2015) Evidence of an emerging levee failure mechanism causing disastrous floods in italy. Water Resour Res 51(10):7995–8011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polanco L, Rice J (2014) A reliability-based evaluation of the effects of geometry on levee under seepage potential. Geotech Geol Eng 32(4):807–820

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reinert E, Stewart JP (2014) Dynamic response of a model levee on Sherman island peat: a curated data set. Earthq Spectra 30(2):639–656

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rice JD, Polanco L (2012) Reliability-based under seepage analysis in levees using a response surface-Monte Carlo simulation method. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 138(7):821–830

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thangaraj R (2012) Modified particle swarm optimization with time varying velocity vector. Int J Innov Comput Inf Control 1A:201–218

    Google Scholar 

  • Vijiling JK (1998) Probabilistic design of water defense system in The Netherlands. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 71(2):141–150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Z, Yang G (1998) Risk calculation model for flood levee structure. J Hydraul Eng 07:64–67

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu X, Ding L, Zhang J (2003) Study on reliability design method of flood defenses. J Hydraul Eng 4:99

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu SJ, Lien HC, Chang CH (2010) Modeling risk analysis for forecasting peak discharge during flooding prevention and warning operation. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 24(8):1175–1191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang B, Chen Y, Wei S (2013) The fluid–solid coupling analysis of three-dimensional slope based on ABAQUS. Appl Mech Mater 353–354:663–668

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yeou-Koung T, Mays LW (1981) Risk models for flood levee design. Water Resour Res 17(4):833–841

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Dai Z (2010) Analysis of slope stability under seepage by using ABAQUS program. Chin J Rock Mech Eng 29(Suppl 1):2927–2934

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou X, Jie Y, Li G (2011) Numerical simulation of piping in levee. J Hydroelectr Eng 30(2):100–106

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This research has been partially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (SN: 51579083, 51479054, 41323001), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (SN: 2016YFC0401601), the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (SN: 20130094110010), Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering (SN: 20165042112, 20145027612), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2015B25414).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, No. 1 Xikang Road, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Zhaoqing Fu & Huaizhi Su

  2. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Huaizhi Su & Zhang Han

  3. Department of Computer Engineering, Nanjing Institute of Technology, Nanjing, 211167, China

    Zhiping Wen

Authors
  1. Zhaoqing Fu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Huaizhi Su
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Zhang Han
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Zhiping Wen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Huaizhi Su.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Fu, Z., Su, H., Han, Z. et al. Multiple failure modes-based practical calculation model on comprehensive risk for levee structure. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 32, 1051–1064 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1448-2

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1448-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation