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Space–time changes in hydrological processes in response to human activities and climatic change in the south China

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Abstract

Due to the influence of climate change and human activities, more and more regions around the world are nowadays facing serious water shortages. This is particularly so with the Guangdong province, an economically prosperous region in China. This study aims at understanding the abrupt behavior of hydrological processes by analyzing monthly precipitation series from 257 rain gauging stations and monthly streamflow series from 25 hydrological stations using the likelihood ratio statistic and schwarz information criterion (SIC). The underlying causes of the changing properties of hydrological processes are investigated by analyzing precipitation changes and information of water reservoirs. It is found that (1) streamflow series in dry season seems to exhibit abrupt changes when compared to that in the flood season; (2) abrupt changes in the values of mean and variance of hydrological variables in the dry season are more common than those in the streamflow series in the flood season, which implies that streamflow in the dry season is more sensitive to human activities and climate change than that in the flood season; (3) no change points are identified in the annual precipitation and precipitation series in the flood season. Annual streamflow and streamflow in the flood season exhibit no abrupt changes, showing the influence of precipitation on streamflow changes in the flood season. However, streamflow changes in the dry season seem to be heavily influenced by hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. The results of this study are of practical importance for regional water resource management in the Guangdong province.

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Acknowledgments

This work was financially supported by State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering (Grant No.: Yk909003), NSFC project (Grant No.: 41071020; 50839005), Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities), Program Foundation for the Youth of Humanities and Social Science by the State Education Commission (Grant No.: 09YJC910010), and by the Project of the Guangdong Science and Technology Department (Grant No.: 2010B050800001). Cordial gratitude should be extended to the editors, Prof. Jinfeng Wang and Prof. George Christakos, and also to two anonymous reviewers for their insightful review and professional comments which greatly help to improve the quality of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Xinjun Tu, Qiang Zhang & Xiaohong Chen

  2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210000, China

    Xinjun Tu, Qiang Zhang & Xiaohong Chen

  3. School of Geography and Planning, and Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of China

    Xinjun Tu, Qiang Zhang & Xiaohong Chen

  4. Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA

    Vijay P. Singh

  5. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77843-2117, USA

    Vijay P. Singh

  6. Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute, Guangzhou, 510611, China

    Chun-Ling Liu & Shao-Bo Wang

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  1. Xinjun Tu
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  2. Qiang Zhang
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  3. Vijay P. Singh
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  4. Xiaohong Chen
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  5. Chun-Ling Liu
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  6. Shao-Bo Wang
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Correspondence to Qiang Zhang.

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Tu, X., Zhang, Q., Singh, V.P. et al. Space–time changes in hydrological processes in response to human activities and climatic change in the south China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 26, 823–834 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0516-2

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