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Assessment of risk factors and establishment of a nomogram model to predict early high-output ileostomy

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Abstract

Objective

This study evaluated the prevalence and perioperative risk factors for early high-output ileostomy (EHOI) and developed a precise nomogram model to predict the occurrence of EHOI.

Methods

140 patients who underwent ileostomy surgery at three hospitals in Wuhan, Hubei Province, between January 2022 and May 2022 were enrolled in this prospective cohort study. By using univariate and multifactorial logistic regression, independent risk variables for the development of EHOI were examined, and the nomogram model for predicting the risk of EHOI was created by using R software. The calibration curve and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) were used to evaluate the calibration and discrimination of the prediction model, Hosmer–Lemeshow to verify the fit of the model. Clinical impact curve (CIC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the model's clinical efficacy.

Results

A total of 132 patients participated in the study, and the incidence of EHOI was 25.8% (34/132). The nomogram model incorporated 3 risk factors hypertension, drinking habits, and high white blood cell (WBC) count after surgery. The AUC was 0.742, and the nomogram showed great calibration and clinical validity by comparing the calibration curve, DCA, and CIC.

Conclusions

Hypertension, drinking, and high WBC was significantly correlated with EHOI. The nomogram model has great clinical value in predicting the EHOI.

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Data availability

The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to express their gratitude to all investigators and participants of the studies included in this analysis.

Funding

The authors did not receive support from any organization for the submitted work.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Urology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Hubei Province, Wuhan, 430060, People’s Republic of China

    Ying Chen & Fan Cheng

  2. Nursing Office, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China

    Zhongxiang Cai & Yan Liu

  3. Department of Gastroenterology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China

    Jun Zhong

Authors
  1. Ying Chen
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  2. Zhongxiang Cai
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  3. Yan Liu
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  4. Jun Zhong
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Conceptualization, methodology, and writing of the original: Ying Chen; Formal analysis and investigation: Ying Chen; Writing—review and editing: Zhongxiang Cai, Yan Liu; Resources: Zhongxiang Cai, Jun Zhong; Supervision: Fan Cheng.

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Correspondence to Fan Cheng.

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Competing interests

All authors certify that they have no affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest or non-financial interest in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript.

Ethics approval

The studies involving human participants were reviewed and approved by Clinical Research Ethics Committee of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University. The patients/participants provided their written informed consent to participate in this study(no: WDRY2022-K063).

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Informed consent was obtained from all the individual participants included in the study.

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Informed consent was obtained from all the participants included in the study.

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Chen, Y., Cai, Z., Liu, Y. et al. Assessment of risk factors and establishment of a nomogram model to predict early high-output ileostomy. Langenbecks Arch Surg 408, 106 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00423-023-02850-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00423-023-02850-3

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