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Causes of the long-term variability of southwestern South America precipitation in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model

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Abstract

Southwestern South America (SWSA) has undergone frequent and persistent droughts in recent decades with severe impacts on water resources, and consequently, on socio-economic activities at a sub-continental scale. The local drying trend in this region has been associated with the expansion of the subtropical drylands over the last decades. It has been shown that SWSA precipitation is linked to large-scale dynamics modulated by internal climate variability and external forcing. This work aims at unravelling the causes of this long-term trend toward dryness in the context of the emerging climate change relying on a large set simulations of the state-of-the-art IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our results identify the leading role of dynamical changes induced by external forcings, over the local thermodynamical effects and teleconnections with internal global modes of sea surface temperature. Our findings show that the simulated long-term changes of SWSA precipitation are dominated by externally forced anomalous expansion of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell (HC) and a persistent positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) trend since the late 1970s. Long-term changes in the HC extent and the SAM show strong co-linearity. They are attributable to stratospheric ozone depletion in austral spring-summer and increased atmospheric greenhouse gases all year round. Future ssp585 and ssp126 scenarios project a dominant role of anthropogenic forcings on the HC expansion and the subsequent SWSA drying, exceeding the threshold of extreme drought due to internal variability as soon as the 2040s, and suggest that these effects will persist until the end of the twenty-first century.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank editor Dr. Corti and the two anonymous reviewers for their fundamental duty in the publishing process of this paper and their helpful comments. This work was undertaken in the framework of the THEMES project under the BNP-Paribas Foundation grant and the IPSL Climate Graduate School EUR. The CMIP6 project at IPSL used the HPC resources of TGCC under the allocations 2016-A0030107732, 2017-R0040110492 and 2018-R0040110492 (project gencmip6) provided by GENCI (Grand Equipement National de Calcul Intensif). This study benefited from the ESPRI (Ensemble de Services Pour la Recherche l’IPSL) computing and data centre (https://mesocentre.ipsl.fr) which is supported by CNRS, Sorbonne Universite, Ecole Polytechnique and CNES and through national and international grants. Special thanks to Juan Rivera for providing us with observational precipitation data from rain gauges and his helpful comments on the model validation.

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  1. LOCEAN-IPSL, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, 4 place Jussieu, 75005, Paris, France

    Julián Villamayor & Myriam Khodri

  2. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (CCT-Mendoza/CONICET), Mendoza, Argentina

    Ricardo Villalba

  3. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France

    Valérie Daux

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Villamayor, J., Khodri, M., Villalba, R. et al. Causes of the long-term variability of southwestern South America precipitation in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model. Clim Dyn 57, 2391–2414 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05811-y

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