Abstract
As the global atmosphere warms, water vapor concentrations increase with rising temperatures at a rate of 7%/K. Precipitation change is associated with increased moisture convergence, which can be decomposed into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. Our previous studies involving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections have suggested that seasonal disparity in changes of global precipitation is primarily associated with the thermodynamic contribution. In this study, a vertically integrated atmospheric water budget analysis using multiple reanalysis datasets demonstrated that dynamic changes played a significant role in seasonal precipitation changes during 1979–2008, especially in the global average and ocean average. The thermodynamic component exhibited almost consistent magnitude in the contribution of seasonal precipitation changes during 1979–2008 in both CMIP5_AMIP models and reanalysis datasets, whereas the dynamic component (related to the tendency of ω and water vapor climatology) made a lower or negative contribution in the CMIP5_AMIP models compared with the reanalysis datasets. Strengthened (weakened) ascending and descending motions in the reanalysis datasets (CMIP5_AMIP models), which were indicative of strengthened (weakened) seasonal mean circulation, tended to increase (reduce) precipitation in the wet season and reduce (increase) precipitation in the dry season during the study period. Vertical profiles of the tendency of moist static energy in the mid-to-upper troposphere suggested a trend toward stability in the CMIP5_AMIP models and one toward instability in the reanalysis datasets. Such disagreement in stability might be related to the different warming tendency in the mid-to-upper troposphere over the tropics.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adler RF et al (2003) The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). J Hydrometeorol 4(6):1147–1167
Allan RP, Soden BJ (2008) Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science 321(5895):1481–1484. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1160787
Beck HE et al (2017) MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 21(1):589–615. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-589-2017
Becker A et al (2013) A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901-present. Earth Syst Sci Data 5(1):71–99. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-71-2013
Bony S et al (2013) Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation. Nat Geosci 6(6):447–451. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1799
Byrne MP, O’Gorman PA (2015) The response of precipitation minus evapotranspiration to climate warming: why the “Wet-Get-Wetter, Dry-Get-Drier” scaling does not hold over land. J Clim 28(20):8078–8092. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0369.1
Chadwick R (2016) Which aspects of CO2 forcing and SST warming cause most uncertainty in projections of tropical rainfall change over land and ocean? J Clim 29(7):2493–2509. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0777.1
Chadwick R, Boutle I, Martin G (2013) Spatial patterns of precipitation change in CMIP5: why the rich do not get richer in the tropics. J Clim 26(11):3803–3822. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00543.1
Chen M, Xie P, Janowiak JE, Arkin PA (2002) Global land precipitation: a 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J Hydrometeorol 3(3):249–266
Chen CA, Chou C, Chen CT (2012) Regional perspective on mechanisms for tropical precipitation frequency and intensity under global warming. J Clim 25(24):8487–8501. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00096.1
Chou C, Lan C-W (2012) Changes in the annual range of precipitation under global warming. J Clim 25(1):222–235. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00097.1
Chou C, Neelin JD (2004) Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation*. J Clim 17(13):2688–2701. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3c2688:mogwio%3e2.0.co;2
Chou C, Neelin JD, Su H (2001) Ocean-atmosphere-land feedbacks in an idealized monsoon. Q J R Meteorol Soc 127(576):1869–1891. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712757602
Chou C, Neelin JD, Chen C-A, Tu J-Y (2009) Evaluating the “Rich-Get-Richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J Clim 22(8):1982–2005. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2471.1
Chou C et al (2013) Increase in the range between wet and dry season precipitation. Nat Geosci 6(4):263–267. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1744
Dai A (2006) Recent climatology, variability, and trends in global surface humidity. J Clim 19(15):3589–3606. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3816.1
Dee DP, Källén E, Simmons AJ, Haimberger L (2011) Comments on “reanalyses suitable for characterizing long-term trends”. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92(1):65–70. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010bams3070.1
Emori S, Brown SJ (2005) Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys Res Lett 32(17):1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023272
Frierson DMW (2006) Robust increases in midlatitude static stability in simulations of global warming. Geophys Res Lett 33(24):1–4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027504
Fu Q, Manabe S, Johanson CM (2011) On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: models versus observations. Geophys Res Lett 38(15):L15704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048101
Greve P, Seneviratne SI (2015) Assessment of future changes in water availability and aridity. Geophys Res Lett 42:5493–5499. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064127
Greve P et al (2014) Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land. Nat Geosci 7(10):716–721. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2247
Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int J Climatol 34(3):623–642. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711
He J, Soden BJ (2016) A re-examination of the projected subtropical precipitation decline. Nat Clim Change 1(November):1–6. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3157
Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19(21):5686–5699. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli3990.1
Kent C, Chadwick R, Rowell DP (2015) Understanding uncertainties in future projections of seasonal tropical precipitation. J Clim 28(11):4390–4413. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00613.1
Knutson TR, Manabe S (1995) Time-mean response over the tropical Pacific to increased CO2 in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Clim 20:2181–2199. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008%3c2181:tmrott%3e2.0.co;2
Knutti R, Sedláček J (2012) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nat Clim Change 3(4):369–373. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716
Kumar S, Allan RP, Zwiers F, Lawrence DM, Dirmeyer PA (2015) Revisiting trends in wetness and dryness in the presence of internal climate variability and water limitations over land. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl066858
Lan C-W, Lo M-H, Chou C, Kumar S (2016) Terrestrial water flux responses to global warming in tropical rainforest areas. Earth’s Future 4(5):210–224. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000350
Liu SC, Fu C, Shiu C-J, Chen J-P, Wu F (2009) Temperature dependence of global precipitation extremes. Geophys Res Lett 36(17):1–4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl040218
Lo MH, Yeh PJF, Famiglietti JS (2008) Constraining water table depth simulations in a land surface model using estimated baseflow. Adv Water Resour 31(12):1552–1564. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2008.06.007
Long S-M, Xie S-P, Liu W (2016) Uncertainty in tropical rainfall projections: atmospheric circulation effect and the ocean coupling. J Clim 29(7):2671–2687. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0601.1
Ma J, Xie SP (2013) Regional patterns of sea surface temperature change: a source of uncertainty in future projections of precipitation and atmospheric circulation. J Clim 26(8):2482–2501. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00283.1
Marvel K et al (2017) Observed and projected changes to the precipitation annual cycle. J Clim 30(13):4983–4995. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0572.1
Mitas CM, Clement A (2006) Recent behavior of the Hadley cell and tropical thermodynamics in climate models and reanalyses. Geophys Res Lett 33(1):1–4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024406
Neelin JD, Held IM (1987) Modeling tropical convergence based on the moist static energy budget. Mon Weather Rev. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115%3c0003:mtcbot%3e2.0.co;2
O’Gorman PA, Muller CJ (2010) How closely do changes in surface and column water vapor follow Clausius-Clapeyron scaling in climate change simulations? Environ Res Lett 5(2):025207. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025207
O’Gorman PA, Schneider T (2009) The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(35):14773–14777. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907610106
Oueslati B, Bony S, Risi C, Dufresne J-L (2016) Interpreting the inter-model spread in regional precipitation projections in the tropics: role of surface evaporation and cloud radiative effects. Clim Dyn 47(9–10):2801–2815. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-2998-6
Po-Chedley S, Fu Q (2012) Discrepancies in tropical upper tropospheric warming between atmospheric circulation models and satellites. Environ Res Lett 7(4):044018. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044018
Roderick ML, Sun F, Lim WH, Farquhar GD (2014) A general framework for understanding the response of the water cycle to global warming over land and ocean. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18(5):1575–1589. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1575-2014
Samset BH et al (2017) Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing. In: npj climate and atmospheric science (October 2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-017-0005-5
Santer BD et al (2007) Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(39):15248–15253. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702872104
Santer BD et al (2017) Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data. J Clim 30(1):373–392. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0333.1
Seager R, Henderson N (2013) Diagnostic computation of moisture budgets in the ERA-interim reanalysis with reference to analysis of CMIP-archived atmospheric model data. J Clim 26(20):7876–7901. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00018.1
Seager R, Naik N, Vecchi GA (2010) Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J Clim 23(17):4651–4668. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3655.1
Shepherd TG (2014) Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Nat Geosci 7(10):703–708. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2253
Shiu C-J, Liu SC, Fu C, Dai A, Sun Y (2012) How much do precipitation extremes change in a warming climate? Geophys Res Lett 39(17):L17707. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl052762
Stocker TF et al (2013) Climate change 2013: The physical science basisWorking Group 1 (WG1) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5)
Sun Y, Solomon S, Dai A, Portmann RW (2007) How often will it rain? J Clim 20(19):4801–4818. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli4263.1
Sun F, Roderick ML, Farquhar GD (2012) Changes in the variability of global land precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 39(18):1–6. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053369
Tan P-H, Chou C, Tu J-Y (2008) Mechanisms of global warming impacts on robustness of tropical precipitation asymmetry. J Clim 21(21):5585–5602. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2154.1
Tan J, Jakob C, Rossow WB, Tselioudis G (2015) Increases in tropical rainfall driven by changes in frequency of organized deep convection. Nature 519(7544):451–454. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14339
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Thorne PW, Vose RS (2010) Reanalyses suitable for characterizing long-term trends. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91(3):353–362. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009bams2858.1
Trenberth KE, Guillemot CJ (1995) Evaluation of the global atmospheric moisture budget as seen from analyses. J Clim 10:2255–2272. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008%3c2255:eotgam%3e2.0.co;2
Trenberth KE, Dai A, Rasmussen RM, Parsons DB (2003) The changing character of precipitation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84(9):1205–1217. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-84-9-1205
Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, Mackaro J (2011) Atmospheric moisture transports from ocean to land and global energy flows in reanalyses. J Clim 24(18):4907–4924. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4171.1
Vecchi GA, Soden BJ (2007) Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J Clim 20(17):4316–4340. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4258.1
Wang Z, Duan A, Yang S, Ullah K (2017) Atmospheric moisture budget and its regulation on the variability of summer precipitation over the tibetan plateau. J Geophys Res 122(2):614–630. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025515
Wentz JF, Schabel M (2000) Precise climate monitoring using complementary satellite data sets. Nature 403:414–416 (CN—0129)
Wu W-Y, Lan C-W, Lo M-H, Reager JT, Famiglietti JS (2015) Increases in the annual range of soil water storage at northern middle and high latitudes under global warming. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl064110.received
Xie PP, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2539–2558
Yang M et al (2018) Precipitation and moisture in four leading CMIP5 models: biases across large-scale circulation regimes and their attribution to dynamic and thermodynamic factors. J Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0718.1
Zhang M, Song H (2006) Evidence of deceleration of atmospheric vertical overturning circulation over the tropical Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 33(12):1–5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025942
Zhang X et al (2007) Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature 448(7152):461–465. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06025
Acknowledgements
We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The GPCP combined precipitation data were developed and computed by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center’s Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory as a contribution to the GEWEX Global Precipitation Climatology Project. The CMAP data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, United States, from the website at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/. The MSWEP data were obtained from the website at http://www.gloh2o.org/. GPCC and PREC/L Precipitation data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their website at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. The CRU precipitation data were obtained from the website at http://badc.nerc.ac.uk. NCEP reanalysis data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/). The European Centre provided the ERA-Interim data for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/). MERRA data were provided by the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/mdisc/). The JRA-25 data was produced and supplied by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI). This study was supported by the grant of MOST 106-2111-M-002-010-MY4 to National Taiwan University.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lan, CW., Lo, MH., Chen, CA. et al. The mechanisms behind changes in the seasonality of global precipitation found in reanalysis products and CMIP5 simulations. Clim Dyn 53, 4173–4187 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04781-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04781-6