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A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean

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Abstract

A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. This initiative aims to build first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both “weather-like” (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and “climate” (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18–21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land–ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for the Austrian event, which was weakly forced by the large-scale flow. Though the ensemble correlation skill score is still quite high (0.80). The preliminary results illustrate both the promise and the challenges that convection permitting modeling faces and make a strong argument for an ensemble-based approach to investigating high impact convective processes.

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Acknowledgements

IG and LS have been supported by the Croatian Science Foundation (HrZZ) project CARE (no. 2831). JF acknowledges support by the Spanish R + D programme through MINECO/FEDER co-funded project INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R). AL-G is supported by the Spanish government though grant BES-2016-078158 and MINECO/FEDER co-funded project MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R). UCAN simulations have been carried out on the Altamira Supercomputer at the Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA, CSIC-UC), member of the Spanish Supercomputing Network. Computational resources were partly made available by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) through support from the BMBF. JM and KW-S gratefully acknowledge the support by the German Science Foundation (DFG) through project FOR 1695. UHOH simulations were carried out at the supercomputing center HLRS in Stuttgart, Germany. DM, MP, and HT gratefully acknowledge the support received via the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) project NHCM-2 (no. P24758-N29) and the projects HighEnd:Extremes and EASICLIM, funded by the Austrian Climate Research Programme (ACRP) of the Klima- und Energiefonds (nos. KR13AC6K10981 and KR16AC0K13160, respectively). DM, MP and HT are also thankful for the computational resources received the Vienna Scientific Cluster (VSC). KG, SK, HT and MP gratefully acknowledge the computing time granted by the John von Neumann Institute for Computing (NIC) and provided on the supercomputer JURECA at Jülich Supercomputing Centre (JSC) through grant hka19. DH gratefully acknowledges the Gauss Centre for Supercomputing e.V. (http://www.gauss-centre.eu) for funding this project by providing computing time on the GCS Supercomputer JUQUEEN at Jülich Supercomputing Centre (JSC) through grant hka19. SS and TL acknowledge the support of NOTUR project no. NN9280K and the Research Council of Norway and its basic institute support of their strategic project on Climate Services. The authors gratefully acknowledge the Austrian Central Department for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) for providing analysis fields of the Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system. IPSL’s work was granted access to the HPC resources of TGCC under the allocations 2017-A0010106313 and 2017-A0030106877 made by GENCI. RMC and PMMS gratefully acknowledge the support of the SOLAR project (PTDC/GEOMET/7078/2014) financed by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. QF and SS acknowledge the support of the Meteo-France computing center and warmly thank Antoinette Alias and Michel Déqué for their contributions. EJ Kendon gratefully acknowledges funding from the Joint Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). S. Khodayar research is supported by the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research). EK and SK acknowledge the support of the Greek Research and Technology Network (GRNET) High Performance Computing (HPC) infrastructure for providing the computational resources of AUTH-simulations and the AUTH Scientific Computing Center for technical support. TH and MB (CUNI) acknowledge the support of the IT4Innovations—National Supercomputer Centre of the Czech Republic providing the computational resources for the CUNI simulations and the support of Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic for funding the participation in Euro-CORDEX activities via the scheme INTER-TRANSFER under the Grant no. LTT17007. LM, GM and ØH acknowledge supercomputer facilities provided by NOTUR, and funding from the Research Council of Norway through the SUPER (Grant no. 250573) and HYPRE (Grant no. 243942) projects. HCLIM-KNMI simulations were supported by ECMWF (computing time through special project SPNLSTER) and the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment. HdV and EvM like to thank Bert van Ulft from KNMI for carrying out the Harmonie simulations. ICTP thanks the CINECA super computer center for the HPC facilities used for those simulations. The authors also wish to thank MeteoGroup Switzerland for providing observational data for the Foehn test case, Meteo-France and the HyMeX program (sponsored by Grants MISTRALS/HyMeX and ANR-11-BS56-0005 IODA-MED project) for supplying the data for HyMeX-IOP16 case, the Wegener Center (especially Jürgen Fuchsberger) for providing WegenerNet data for the Austria case.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Centre for Theoretical Physics (International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)), Trieste, Italy

    Erika Coppola, E. Pichelli, F. Raffaele & F. Giorgi

  2. Uni Research, The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

    Stefan Sobolowski & T. Lorenz

  3. Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt a.M. Frankfurt/Main, Frankfurt, Germany

    B. Ahrens

  4. ZAMG (Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics), Vienna, Austria

    I. Anders

  5. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland

    N. Ban & C. Schär

  6. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), LATMOS, UVSQ, UPMC, CNRS, Guyancourt, France

    S. Bastin & R. Vautard

  7. Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic

    M. Belda & T. Halenka

  8. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden

    D. Belusic & P. Lind

  9. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Troposphere Research, Karlsruhe, Germany

    A. Caldas-Alvarez, S. Khodayar & H.-J. Panitz

  10. Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

    R. M. Cardoso & P. M. M. Soares

  11. Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy

    S. Davolio & P. Stocchi

  12. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

    A. Dobler

  13. Meteorology Group, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain

    J. Fernandez

  14. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA, CNRS UMI-IFAECI, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    L. Fita

  15. CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques), Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France

    Q. Fumiere & S. Somot

  16. Institute of Bio-and Geosciences (Agrosphere, IBG-3), Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, Germany

    K. Goergen

  17. Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich, Germany

    K. Goergen & S. Knist

  18. Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), Zagreb, Croatia

    I. Güttler & L. Srnec

  19. Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany

    D. Heinzeller & H. Kunstmann

  20. Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA

    D. Heinzeller

  21. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway

    Ø. Hodnebrog, L. Marelle & G. Myhre

  22. Climate Service Center (CSC) Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

    D. Jacob, T. Raub & K. Sieck

  23. Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, UK

    S. Kartsios & E. Katragkou

  24. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

    E. Kendon

  25. Institute of Geography, Augsburg University, Augsburg, Germany

    H. Kunstmann

  26. Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany

    S. Knist

  27. Meteorology Group, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), CSIC-Univ. Cantabria, Santander, Spain

    A. Lavín-Gullón

  28. Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010, Graz, Austria

    D. Maraun, M. Piazza & H. Truhetz

  29. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands

    E. van Meijgaard & H. de Vries

  30. Institute of Physics and Meteorology (IPM), University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany

    J. Milovac & K. Warrach-Sagi

  31. Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC Foundation), Capua, Italy

    M. Raffa

  32. Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany

    B. Rockel

  33. Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Senckenbergstr. 1, 35390, Giessen, Germany

    M. H. Tölle

Authors
  1. Erika Coppola
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  2. Stefan Sobolowski
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  3. E. Pichelli
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  4. F. Raffaele
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  5. B. Ahrens
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  6. I. Anders
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  7. N. Ban
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  8. S. Bastin
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  9. M. Belda
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  10. D. Belusic
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  11. A. Caldas-Alvarez
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  12. R. M. Cardoso
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  13. S. Davolio
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  14. A. Dobler
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  15. J. Fernandez
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  16. L. Fita
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  17. Q. Fumiere
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  18. F. Giorgi
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  19. K. Goergen
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  20. I. Güttler
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  21. T. Halenka
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  22. D. Heinzeller
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  23. Ø. Hodnebrog
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  24. D. Jacob
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  25. S. Kartsios
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  26. E. Katragkou
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  27. E. Kendon
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  28. S. Khodayar
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  29. H. Kunstmann
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  30. S. Knist
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  31. A. Lavín-Gullón
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  32. P. Lind
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  33. T. Lorenz
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  34. D. Maraun
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  35. L. Marelle
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  36. E. van Meijgaard
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  37. J. Milovac
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  38. G. Myhre
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  39. H.-J. Panitz
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  40. M. Piazza
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  41. M. Raffa
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  42. T. Raub
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  43. B. Rockel
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  44. C. Schär
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  45. K. Sieck
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  46. P. M. M. Soares
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  47. S. Somot
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  48. L. Srnec
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  49. P. Stocchi
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  50. M. H. Tölle
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  51. H. Truhetz
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  52. R. Vautard
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  53. H. de Vries
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  54. K. Warrach-Sagi
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Erika Coppola or Stefan Sobolowski.

Additional information

This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Advances in Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling, consisting of papers that focus on the evaluation, climate change assessment, and feedback processes in kilometer-scale simulations and observations. The special issue is coordinated by Christopher L. Castro, Justin R. Minder, and Andreas F. Prein.

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Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Pichelli, E. et al. A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean. Clim Dyn 55, 3–34 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8

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