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Climatic background of cold and wet winter in southern China: part I observational analysis

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Abstract

This study explores the climate background of anomalous wet and cold winter in southern China, focusing on results in January when most of its disastrous snowstorms and freezing rainfall events were observed. Based on the ERA-40 reanalysis and Climate Research Unit (CRU) observed precipitation and surface temperature monthly data for the period of 1959–2001, the difference between normalised monthly precipitation and temperature is used to define a simple index which reflects the intensity of the wet and cold condition in the region. It offers a good agreement with an index defined by daily weather station data observed in the region. Then, through simple correlation analyses we focus on exploring the dominant physical and dynamical processes leading to such climatic anomalies. While we acknowledge the contribution of the cold/dry air penetrated from the north, the importance of maintaining a warm and moist airflow from the south is highlighted, including an enhanced Middle East Jet Stream (MEJS) and southwesterly flow over Indochina Peninsula and South China Sea region. Strong vertical share of meridional wind, with enhanced northerly flow near the surface and southerly flow in the low to middle troposphere, leads to significant temperature and moisture inversions. These are consistent with results from synoptic analyses of the severe January 2008 event which was not included in the correlation calculations and thus suggest the 2008 event was not an unusual event although it was very intense. In the third part, we use a partial least-square statistical method to uncover dominant SST patterns corresponding to such climatic conditions. By comparing results for the periods of 1949–1978 and 1978–2007, we demonstrate the shift of dominant SST patterns responsible for the wet and cold anomalies. Shifting from “conventional” ENSO SST patterns to ENSO Modoki-like conditions in recent decades partially explains the unstable relationship between ENSO and Asian winter monsoon. Meanwhile, the importance of SST conditions in extra-tropic Pacific and Indian oceans is acknowledged. Finally, we developed a forecasting model which uses SST condition in October to predict the occurrence of the anomalous wet and cold January in the region and reasonable forecasting skill is obtained.

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Acknowledgments

This study is inspired by a work from the lead author on the potential changes of EAWM under global warming and discussions with Prof. J. Qin on the possible causes of wet and cold winter in southern China. The work is a continuation of the monsoon study under an Australia-China climate change bilateral project partially funded by the Australian Greenhouse Office. Part of the study is support by the China National Science and Technology Supporting Program (No. 2008BACB02) lead by Prof. J. Qin. The authors thank both anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions during the review process.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne, VIC, 3001, Australia

    Huqiang Zhang

  2. China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China

    Jun Qin

  3. CSIRO Mathematics, Informatics and Statistics, Perth, WA, Australia

    Yun Li

Authors
  1. Huqiang Zhang
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  2. Jun Qin
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  3. Yun Li
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Correspondence to Huqiang Zhang.

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Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) is a partnership between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

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Zhang, H., Qin, J. & Li, Y. Climatic background of cold and wet winter in southern China: part I observational analysis. Clim Dyn 37, 2335–2354 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1022-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1022-4

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