Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Ocean–atmosphere coupling and the boreal winter MJO

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The influence of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the simulation and prediction of the boreal winter Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined using the Seoul National University coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and atmospheric—only model (AGCM). The AGCM is forced with daily SSTs interpolated from pentad mean CGCM SSTs. Forecast skill is examined using serial extended simulations spanning 26 different winter seasons with 30-day forecasts commencing every 5 days providing a total of 598 30-day simulations. By comparing both sets of experiments, which share the same atmospheric components, the influence of coupled ocean–atmosphere processes on the simulation and prediction of MJO can be studied. The mean MJO intensity possesses more realistic amplitude in the CGCM than in AGCM. In general, the ocean–atmosphere coupling acts to improve the simulation of the spatio-temporal evolution of the eastward propagating MJO and the phase relationship between convection (OLR) and SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. Both the CGCM and observations exhibit a near-quadrature relationship between OLR and SST, with the former lagging by about two pentads. However, the AGCM shows a less realistic phase relationship. As the initial conditions are the same in both models, the additional forcing by SST anomalies in the CGCM extends the prediction skill beyond that of the AGCM. To test the applicability of the CGCM to real-time prediction, we compute the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and compared it with the index computed from observations. RMM1 (RMM2) falls away rapidly to 0.5 after 17–18 (15–16) days in the AGCM and 18–19 (16–17) days in the CGCM. The prediction skill is phase dependent in both the CGCM and AGCM.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Agudelo PA, Curry JA, Hoyos CD, Webster PJ (2006) Transition between suppressed and active phases of intraseasonal oscillations in the Indo-Pacific warm pool. J Clim 19(21):5519–5530

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Agudelo PA, Hoyos CD, Webster PJ and Curry JA (2008) Application of a serial extended forecast experiment using the ECMWF model to interpret the predictive skill of tropical intraseasonal variability. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0447-x

  • Bergman JW, Hendon HH, Weickmann KM (2001) Intraseasonal air–sea interactions at the onset of El Nino. J Clim 14:1702–1719

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonan GB (1998) The land surface climatology of the NCAR land surface model coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model. J Clim 11:1307–1326

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen TC, Alpert JC (1990) Systematic errors in the annual and intraseasonal variations of the planetary-scale divergent circulation in NMC medium-range forecasts. Mon Weather Rev 118:2607–2623

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferranti L, Palmer TN, Molteni F, Klinker K (1990) Tropical–extratropical interaction associated with the 30–60 day oscillation and its impact on medium and extended range prediction. J Atmos Sci 47:2177–2199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu X, Wang B (2004a) Differences of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations simulated in an atmosphere–ocean coupled model and an atmosphere-only model. J Clim 17:1263–1271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu X, Wang B (2004b) The boreal-summer intraseasonal oscillations simulated in a hybrid coupled atmosphere–ocean model. Mon Weather Rev 132:2628–2649

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu X, Wang B, Li T, McCreary JP (2003) Coupling between northward propagation intraseasonal oscillations and sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. J Atmos Sci 60:1733–1753

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu X, Wang B, Waliser DE, Tao L (2007) Impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the predictability of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. J Atmos Sci 64:157–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han W, Lawrence D, Webster PJ (2001) Dynamical response of equatorial Indian Ocean to intraseasonal winds: zonal flow. Geophys Res Lett 28:4215–4218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hendon HH, Liebemann B, Newman M, Glick J, Schemm JE (2000) Medium–range forecast errors associated with active episodes of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 128:69–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holtslag AAM, Boville BA (1993) Local versus nonlocal boundary layer diffusion in a global climate model. J Clim 6:1825–1842

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoyos CD, Webster PJ (2007) The role of intraseasonal variability in the nature of asian monsoon precipitation. J Clim 20:4402–4424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang X, and Coauthors (2008) Assessing the skill of an all-season statistical forecast model for the Madden–Julian oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 136, 1940–1956

  • Jones C, Schemm JE (2000) The influence of intraseasonal variations on medium-to extended-range weather forecasts over South America. Mon Weather Rev 128:486–494

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones C, Waliser DE, Lau WK, Stern W (2000) Prediction skill of the Madden and Julian Oscillation in dynamical extended range forecasts. Clim Dyn 16:273–289

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones C, Waliser DE, Lau WK, Stern W (2004a) The Madden–Julian oscillation and its impact on Northern Hemisphere weather predictability. Mon Weather Rev 132:1462–1471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones C, Carvalho LMV, Higgins RW et al (2004b) Statistical forecast skill of tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies. J Clim 17:2078–2095

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEPDEO AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Met Soc 83:1631–1643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kang IS, An SI, Joung CH, Yoon SC, Lee SM (1989) 30–60 day oscillation appearing in climatological variation of outgoing longwave radiation around East Asia during summer. J Korean Meteorol Soc 25:149–160

    Google Scholar 

  • Kang IS, Ho CH, Lim YK (1999) Principal modes of climatological seasonal and intraseasonal variations of the Asian summer monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 127:322–340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim HM (2008) Combined and calibrated predictions of intraseasonal variation with dynamical and statistical methods, Ph.D. Thesis, Seoul National Univ., http://hdl.handle.net/10371/763

  • Kim HM, Kang IS (2008) The impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the predictability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. Clim Dyn 31:859–870

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim JK, Kang IS, Ho CH (1998) East Asian summer monsoon simulated by the Seoul National University GCM. Proceeding on international conference on monsoon and hydrologic cycle 22:7–231

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim HM, Kang IS, Wang B, Lee JY (2008a) Interannual variations of the boreal summer intraseasonal variability predicted by ten atmosphere–ocean coupled models. Clim Dyn 30:485–496

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim HM, Webster PJ, Hoyos CD, Kang IS (2008b) Sensitivity of MJO simulation and predictability to sea surface temperature variability. J Clim 21:5304–5317

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kug JS, Kang IS, Choi DH (2007) Seasonal climate predictability with tier-one and tier-two prediction systems. Clim Dyn 31:403–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau KM, Chan PH (1986) Aspects of the 40–50 day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation. Mon Weather Rev 114:1354–1367

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau KM, Chang FC (1992) Tropical oscillations and their predictions in the NMC operational forecast model. J Clim 5:1365–1378

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lawrence D, Webster PJ (2001) Interannual variability of intraseasonal convection and the Asian monsoon. J Clim 14:2910–2922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lawrence DM, Webster PJ (2002) The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation: relationship between northward and eastward movement of convection. J Atmos Sci 59:1593–1606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee MI, Kang IS, Mapes BE (2003) Impacts of cumulus convection parameterization on aquaplanet AGCM Simulations of tropical intraseasonal variability. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 81:963–992

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liess S, Waliser DE, Schubert S (2005) Predictability studies of the intraseasonal oscillation with the ECHAM5 GCM. J Atmos Sci 62:3320–3336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lo F, Hendon HH (2000) Empirical extended-range prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 128:2528–2543

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madden RA, Julian PR (1972) Description of global-scale circulation cells in tropics with a 40–50 day period. J Atmos Sci 29:1109–1123

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madden RA, Julian PR (1994) Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 122:813–837

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maloney ED, Hartmann DL (2001) The sensitivity of intraseasonal variability in the NCAR CCM3 to changes in convective parameterization. J Clim 14:2015–2034

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McFarlane NA (1987) The effect of orographically excited gravity wave drag on the general circulation of the lower stratosphere and troposphere. J Atmos Sci 44:1775–1800

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moorthi S, Suarez MJ (1992) Relaxed Arakawa–Schubert: a parameterization of moist convection for general circulation models. Mon Weather Rev 120:978–1002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakajima T, Tanaka M (1986) Matrix formulation for the transfer of solar radiation in a plane-parallel scattering atmosphere. J Quant Spectrosc Radiat Transf 35:13–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Noh Y, Kim HJ (1999) Simulations of temperature and turbulence structure of the oceanic boundary layer with the improved near‐surface process. J Geophy Res 104:15621–15634

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pegion K, Kirtman BP (2008) The impact of air–sea interactions on the predictability of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. J Clim (in press). doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2209

  • Rajendran K, Kitoh A (2006) Modulation of tropical intraseasonal oscillations by ocean–atmosphere coupling. J Clim 19:366–391

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajendran K, Kitoh A, Arakawa O (2004) Monsoon low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation and ocean–atmosphere coupling over the Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 31:L02210. doi:10.1029/2003GL019031

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15:1609–1625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schemm JE, Van den Dool H, Saha S (1996) A multi-year DERF experiment at NCEP. Preprints, 11th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., pp 47–49

  • Seo KH, Schemm JKE, Jones C, Moorthi S (2005) Forecast skill of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP GFS dynamical extended range forecasts. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-005-0035-2

  • Seo KH, Wang W, Gottschalck J, Zhang Q, Schemm J-KE, Higgins WR, Kumar A (2009) Evaluation of MJO forecast skill from several statistical and dynamical forecast models. J Clim. doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2421.1

  • Slingo JM, Rowell DP, Sperber KR et al (1999) On the predictability of the interannual behavior of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and its relationship with El Nino. Q J R Meteorol Soc 125:583–609

    Google Scholar 

  • Stephens GL, Webster PJ, Johnson RH, Englen R, L’Ecuyer T (2004) Observational evidence for the mutual regulation of the tropical hydrological cycle and tropical sea-surface temperatures. J Clim 17:2213–2224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tokioka T, Yamazaki K, Kitoh A, Ose T (1988) The equatorial 30–60 day oscillation and the Arakawa–Shubert penetrative cumulus parameterization. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 66:883–901

    Google Scholar 

  • Vitart F, Woolnough S, Balmaseda MA, Tompkins AM (2007) Monthly forecast of the Madden–Julian oscillation using a coupled GCM. Mon Weather Rev 135:2700–2715

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waliser DE, Lau KM, Kim JH (1999a) The influence of coupled sea surface temperatures on the Madden–Julian oscillation: a model perturbation experiment. J Atmos Sci 56:333–358

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waliser DE, Jones C, Schemm JKE et al (1999b) A statistical extended-range tropical forecast model based on the slow evolution of the Madden–Julian oscillation. J Clim 12:1918–1939

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waliser DE, and Coauthors (2003a) AGCM simulations of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 21:423–446

  • Waliser DE, Stern W, Schubert S, Lau KM (2003b) Dynamic predictability of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Q J R Meteorol Soc 129:2897–2925

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waliser DE, Murtugudde R, Lucas L (2004) Indo-Pacific Ocean response to atmospheric intraseasonal variability. Part II: Boreal summer and the intraseasonal oscillation. J Geophys Res 109. doi:10.1029/2003JC002002

  • Wang WQ, Schlesinger ME (1999) The dependence on convection parameterization of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation simulated by the UIUC 11-layer atmospheric GCM. J Clim 12:1423–1457

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Xie XS (1998) Coupled modes of the warm pool climate system. Part 1: the role of air–sea interaction in maintaining Madden–Julian oscillation. J Clim 11(211):6–2135

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Webster PJ, Teng H (2005) Antecedents and self-induction of active-break south Asian monsoon unraveled by satellites. Geophys Res Lett 32:L04704. doi:10.1029/2004GL020996

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Hoyos C (2004) Prediction of monsoon rainfall and river discharge on 15–30-day time scales. Bull Am Meterol Soc 85:1745–1765

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Bradley EF, Fairall CW, Godfrey JS, Hacker P, Hopuze RA Jr, Lukas R, Serra Y, Hummon JM, Lawrence TDM, Russel CA, Ryan MN, sahami K, Zuidema P (2002) The JASMINE pilot study. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1603–1629

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wheeler M, Hendon H (2004) An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon Weather Rev 132:1917–1932

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woolnough SJ, Slingo JM, Hoskins BJ (2000) The relationship between convection and sea surface temperature on intraseasonal timescales. J Clim 13:2086–2104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woolnough SJ, Vitart F, Balmaseda MA (2007) The role of the ocean in the Madden–Julian oscillation: implications for MJO prediction. Q J R Meteorol Soc 133:117–128

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2539–2558

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zheng Y, Waliser DE, Stern W, Jones C (2004) The role of coupled sea surface temperatures in the simulation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. J Clim 17:4109–4134

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This research has been supported in part by Climate Dynamics Division of the United States National Sciences Foundation under Award NSF-ATM 0531771 and NOAA CPPA project NA0600AR4310005. The fourth author has been supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant CATER_2006-4206 and the second stage of the Brain Korea 21 Project. Much of the work presented here was accomplished during a visit by Hye-Mi Kim to the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology in 2006.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Dr., Atlanta, GA, 30332, USA

    Hye-Mi Kim, Carlos D. Hoyos & Peter J. Webster

  2. School of Earth and Environmental Science, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea

    In-Sik Kang

Authors
  1. Hye-Mi Kim
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Carlos D. Hoyos
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Peter J. Webster
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. In-Sik Kang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hye-Mi Kim.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kim, HM., Hoyos, C.D., Webster, P.J. et al. Ocean–atmosphere coupling and the boreal winter MJO. Clim Dyn 35, 771–784 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0612-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0612-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation