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Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of Stratospheric Sudden Warming by BCC_CSM1.1(m): A Comparison with ECMWF

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Abstract

This study focuses on model predictive skill with respect to stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events by comparing the hindcast results of BCC_CSM1.1(m) with those of the ECMWF’s model under the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project of the World Weather Research Program and World Climate Research Program. When the hindcasts are initiated less than two weeks before SSW onset, BCC_CSM and ECMWF show comparable predictive skill in terms of the temporal evolution of the stratospheric circumpolar westerlies and polar temperature up to 30 days after SSW onset. However, with earlier hindcast initialization, the predictive skill of BCC_CSM gradually decreases, and the reproduced maximum circulation anomalies in the hindcasts initiated four weeks before SSW onset replicate only 10% of the circulation anomaly intensities in observations. The earliest successful prediction of the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex accompanying SSW onset for BCC_CSM (ECMWF) is the hindcast initiated two (three) weeks earlier. The predictive skills of both models during SSW winters are always higher than that during non-SSW winters, in relation to the successfully captured tropospheric precursors and the associated upward propagation of planetary waves by the model initializations. To narrow the gap in SSW predictive skill between BCC_CSM and ECMWF, ensemble forecasts and error corrections are performed with BCC_CSM. The SSW predictive skill in the ensemble hindcasts and the error corrections are improved compared with the previous control forecasts.

概要

本文使用了国家气候中心的BCC_CSM模式和欧洲中期天气预报中心的ECMWF模式的次季节到季节尺度的数值预报结果, 研究了平流层爆发性增温(SSW)事件的潜在预报性. BCC_CSM模式和ECMWF模式都参与了由世界天气研究计划(WWRP)和世界气候研究计划(WCRP)发起的次季节到季节预测研究项目. 在SSW发生前两周以内的起报试验中, BCC_CSM模式和ECMWF模式对SSW期间的平流层绕极西风和极区温度两个指标表现出相当的预报技巧. 然而, 随着起报时间的不断提前, BCC_CSM模式对SSW的预测技能逐渐降低. 在SSW爆发前四周的起报试验中, BCC_CSM模式预测的最大环流异常明显偏小, 仅仅是观测的10%左右. BCC_CSM模式和ECMWF最模式最早且较好地预测出极区强东风异常的试验分别是起报两周和三周的预报. 比较而言, 两个模式在有SSW发生的冬季的预报技巧比没有SSW发生的冬季高一些, 这主要与预报初始化时的对流层的先兆信号和行星上传有关. 为了进一步缩小BCC_CSM模式与ECMWF模式之间的差距, 本文也使用了BCC_CSM的集合试验结果, 并对BCC_CSM模式系统误差进行订正. 与先前的试验相比, 集合预报和误差订正都可以有效地改善BCC_CSM模式对SSW的预测技能.

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Acknowledgements

This work was jointly supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant Nos. 2016YFA0602104 and 2016YFA0602102), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41705024, 41575041, 41705039 and 41705076), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA17010105), the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST (Grant No. 2016r060), and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions. We acknowledge the CMA BCC, NCAR–NCEP and ECMWF for providing their hindcast and/or reanalysis data.

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Correspondence to Jian Rao.

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Article Highlights

• BCC_CSM and ECMWF show comparable predictive skill in hindcasts initiated less than two weeks before SSW onset.

• The predictive skill of the circumpolar zonal wind during SSW winters is higher than that during non-SSW winters in the two models.

• Ensemble hindcasts and error corrections improve the SSW predictive skill compared with the previous control forecasts.

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Electronic Supplementary Material to: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of Stratospheric Sudden Warming by BCC CSM1.1(m): A Comparison with ECMWF

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Rao, J., Ren, R., Chen, H. et al. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of Stratospheric Sudden Warming by BCC_CSM1.1(m): A Comparison with ECMWF. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 36, 479–494 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-018-8165-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-018-8165-8

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