Spread of information through a population with socio-structural bias: I. Assumption of transitivity

Abstract

A previously derived iteration formula for a random net was applied to some data on the spread of information through a population. It was found that if the axon density (the only free parameter in the formula) is determined by the first pair of experimental values, the predicted spread is much more rapid than the observed one. If the successive values of the “apparent axon density” are calculated from the successive experimental values, it is noticed that this quantity at first suffers a sharp drop from an initial high value to its lowest value and then gradually “recovers”.

An attempt is made to account for this behavior of the apparent axon density in terms of the “assumption of transitivity”, based on a certain socio-structural bias, namely, that the likely contacts of two individuals who themselves have been in contact are expected to be strongly overlapping. The assumption of transitivity leads to a drop in the apparent axon density from an arbitrary initial value to the vicinity of unity (if the actual axon density is not too small). However, the “recovery” is not accounted for, and thus the predicted spread turns out to beslower than the observed.