Abstract
The forecasting of road freight traffic has relied heavily on the close correlation between GDP and road tonne-kilometers. It has not been rooted in an understanding of the causes of freight traffic growth. The research reported in this paper has investigated this process of traffic growth in two ways: first, by analysing official data on the production, consumption and movement of food and drink products, and second, by conducting a survey of the changing freight transport requirements of 88 large British-based manufacturers.
The analysis of secondary data shows how, in the food and drink sector, the relationship between the real value of output and road vehicle-kms hinges on four key parameters: value density, handling factor, average length of haul and consignment size. An attempt is made to explain variations in these parameters.
The survey of manufacturers suggests that the growth of lorry traffic is the net result of a complex interaction between factors operating at four levels of logistical management: strategic planning of logistical systems, choice of suppliers and distributors, scheduling of product flow and the management of transport resources. Changes in the frequency and scheduling of freight deliveries in response to tightening customer service requirements and just-in-time management appear to have become a more prevalent cause of freight traffic growth than the physical restructuring of logistical systems. Manufacturers anticipate that their road freight demand will broadly increase in line with sales and be largely unaffected by road transport cost increases at the levels currently proposed. The paper concludes by examining their likely reactions to a much sharper increase in the cost of road freight movement.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Browne M & Allen J (1994) Logistics and Distribution Trends in the Food Manufacturing Industry. London: Transport Studies Group, University of Westminster.
Business Statistics Office (annual publication) Census of Production: Summary Report. London: HMSO.
Central Statistical Office (annual publication) Annual Abstract of Statistics. London: HMSO.
Corcoran PJ, Hitchcock AJ & McMahon CM (1980) Developments in Freight Transport. TRRL Report SR 580, Crowthorne.
Cranfield Centre for Logistics and Transportation (1994) Logistics Futures in Europe: A Delphi Study. Cranfield University.
Dawson JA, Shaw SA & Harris DG (1987) The Impact of Changes in Retailing and Wholesaling on Scottish Manufacturers, ESU Research Paper no. 12, Edinburgh: Industry Department for Scotland.
Debenham, Tewson & Chinnocks (1993) Distribution 2000: Just-in-Time or Just-in-Case, London.
Department of Transport (1976) Transport Policy: A Consultative Document. London: HMSO.
Department of Transport (1989) National Road Traffic Forecasts, 1988. London: HMSO.
Department of Transport (1993) The Transport of Goods by Road in Great Britain. London: HMSO (annual publication).
Department of Transport (1994) The Transport of Goods by Road in Great Britain. London: HMSO (annual publication).
Dunn and Bradstreet Ltd. (1993) Key British Enterprises 1993: Britain's Top 50,000 Companies, Vol. 6. High Wycombe.
Fowkes AS, Nash C & Tweddle G (1992) Harmonising heavy goods vehicle taxes in Europe: A British view. Transport Reviews 12: 3.
Fowkes AS, Nash CA, Toner JP & Tweddle G (1993) Disaggregated Approaches to Freight Analysis: A Feasibility Study. Working paper 299, Leeds: Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds.
Hallett SL (1990) The plausibility of the UK Department of Transport's road traffic forecasts. Traffic Engineering and Control 31: 11.
Hansson L & Nilsson JE (1989) A New Swedish Railroad Policy: Separation of Infrastructure and Traffic Production. Paper presented to the 5th World Conference on Transport Research, Yokohama.
Institute of Grocery Distribution (1993) Retailer Distribution Profiles '93. Letchmore Heath.
Kageson P (1993) Getting the Prices Right. European Federation for Transport and the Environment.
McKinnon AC (1989a) The growth of road freight in the UK. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management 19: 4.
McKinnon AC (1989b) Physical Distribution Systems. London: Routledge.
McKinnon AC & Woodburn A (1993) A logistical perspective on the growth of lorry traffic. Traffic Engineering and Control 34: 9.
McKinnon AC, Stirling I & Kirkhope J (1993) Improving the fuel efficiency of road haulage operations. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management 23: 9.
Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (annual publication) Annual Report of the National Food Survey Committee: Household Food Consumption and Expenditure. London: HMSO.
Motor Transport (1993) Cost Tables, June.
Paine FA & Paine HY (1983) A Handbook of Food Packaging. 1st ed., Glasgow: Leonard Hill.
Paine FA & Paine HY (1992) A Handbook of Food Packaging. 2nd ed. London: Blackie Academic and Professional.
Parkinson M (1981) The Effect of Road Investment on Economic Development in the UK. Government Economic Service, Working Paper 43.
Peake S & Hope C (1991) Transport policy analysis: An energy analogy. Research Paper No. 14/91. Cambridge University Engineering Department.
Tuefel D (1989) Gesellschaftliche Kosten des Strassen-Guterverkehrs. Kosten-Deckungsgrad in Jahr 1987 und Vorschlage zur Realisierung des Verursacherprinzips. UPI-Bericht Nr. 14, Heidelberg: Umwelt and Prognose Institut.
UPS (1992) Europe Business Monitor: Executive Summary. April.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
McKinnon, A.C., Woodburn, A. Logistical restructuring and road freight traffic growth. Transportation 23, 141–161 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00170033
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00170033