Abstract
A crop-growth-simulation model based on SUCROS87 was used to study effects of temperature rise and increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yields in several regions in Europe. The model simulated potential and water-limited crop production (growth with ample supply of nutrients and in the absence of damage by pests, diseases and weeds). Historic daily weather data from 13 sites in Western Europe were used as starting point.
For potential production (optimal water) a 3 °C temperature rise led to a yield decline due to a shortening of the growing period on all locations. Doubling of the CO2 concentration caused an increase in yield of 40% due to higher assimilation rates. It was found that effects of higher temperature and higher CO2 concentration were nearly additive and the combination of both led to a yield increase of 1–2 ton ha-1. A very small CO2-temperature interaction was found: the effect of doubled CO2 concentration on crop yield was larger at higher temperatures. The inter-annual yield variability was hardly affected.
When water was limiting crop-production effects of temperature rise and higher CO2 levels were different than for the potential production. Rise in temperature led to a smaller yield reduction, doubled CO2 concentration to a larger yield increase and combination of both led to a large yield increase (3 ton ha-1) in comparison with yields simulated for the present situation. Both rise in temperature and increase in the CO2 concentration reduced water requirements of the crop. Water shortages became smaller, leading to a reduction in inter-annual variability. It is concluded that when no major changes in precipitation pattern occur a climate change will not affect wheat yields since negative effects of higher temperatures are compensated by positive effects of CO2 enrichment.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alblas, J., Boekel, P., and Beek, M. A. van der: 1987, ‘Gewaseisen’, in Themadag Werkbaarheid en Tijdigheid, Proefstation voor de Akkerbouw en de Groenteteelt in de Vollegrond, Lelystad, The Netherlands, pp. 1–20 (in Dutch).
Ångström, A.: 1924, ‘Solar and Terrestrial Radiation’, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 50, 121–125.
Broekhuizen, S.: 1969, Atlas of the Cereal-Growing Areas in Europe, Pudoc, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 160 pp.
Buishand, T. A. and Velds, C. A.: 1980, Neerslag en Verdamping, KNMI, de Bilt, The Netherlands, 206 pp., (in Dutch).
Cantù, V.: 1977, ‘The Climate of Italy’, in Wallén, C. C. (ed.), Climates of Central and Southern Europe, World Survey of Climatology, Vol. 6, Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 127–183.
Cooter, E. L.: 1990, ‘The Impact of Climate Change on Continuous Corn Production in the Southern USA’, Climatic Change 15, 53–82.
Cure, J. D. and Acock, B.: 1986, ‘Crop Responses to Carbon Dioxide Doubling: a Literature Survey’, Agric. Forest Meteorol. 38, 127–145.
Dobben, W. H. van: 1965, ‘The Photoperiodical Reaction of Wheat in the Mediterranean Region and North-West Europe’, Mediterranea 5, 54–59.
Dijkstra, P., Schapendonk, A. H. C. M., and Groenwold, K.: 1993, ‘Effects of CO2 Enrichment on Canopy Photosynthesis, Carbon Economy and Productivity of Wheat and Faba Bean Under Field Conditions’, in van de Geijn, S. C., Goudriaan, J., and Berendse, F. (eds.), Climate Change: Crops and Terrestrial Ecosystems, Agrobiologische Thema's 9, CABO DLO, Wageningen, pp. 23–41.
Feekes, W.: 1941, ‘De Tarwe in Haar Milieu’, Verslag. Techn. Tarwe, Commun. No. 17 (in Dutch).
Gifford, R. M.: 1979, ‘Growth and Yield of Carbon Dioxide-Enriched Wheat Under Water-Limited Conditions’, Australian J. Plant Physiol. 6, 367–378.
Goudriaan, J. and Laar, H. H. van: 1978, ‘Relations Between Leaf Resistance, CO2-Concentration and CO2 Assimilation in Maize, Beans, Lalang Grass and Sunflower’, Photosynthetica 12, 241–249.
Goudriaan, J., Laar, H. H. van, Keulen, H. van, and Louwerse, W.: 1985, ‘Photosynthesis, CO2 and Plant Production’, in Day, W. and Atkin, R. K. (eds.), Wheat Growth and Modelling, NATO ASI Series, A Life Sciences, Vol. 86, Plenum Press, New York, pp. 107–122.
Goudriaan, J. and Unsworth, M. H.: 1990, ‘Implications of Increasing Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change for Agricultural Productivity and Water Resources’, in Impact of Carbon Dioxide, Trace Gases, and Climate Change on Global Agriculture, ASA Spec. Publ. No. 53, American Society of Agronomy, Madison, USA, pp. 111–129.
Grashof, C. and Nonhebel, S.: 1993, ‘Effect of CO2 Increase on the Productivity of Cereals and Legumes; Model Exploration and Experimental Evaluation’, in van de Geijn, S. C., Goudriaan, J., and Berendse, F. (eds.), Climate Change: Crops and Terrestrial Ecosystems, Agrobiologische Thema's 9, CABO DLO, Wageningen, pp. 43–58.
Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J.: 1990, Climate Change, The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 365 pp.
Idso, K. E. and Idso, S. B.: 1994, ‘Plant Responses to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment in the Face of Environmental Constraints: a Review of the Past 10 Years' Research’, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 69, 154–203.
Jong, J. A. de: 1986, De Teelt van Granen, De Jong, Drachten, The Netherlands, 208 pp. (in Dutch).
Keulen, H. van and Seligman, N. G.: 1987, Simulation of Water Use, Nitrogen Nutrition and Growth of a Spring Wheat Crop, Simulation Monographs, Pudoc Wageningen, The Netherlands, 310 pp.
Kimball, B. A. and Idso, S. B.: 1983, ‘Increasing Atmospheric CO2: Effects of Crop Yield, Water Use and Climate’, Agricultural Water Management 7, 55–72.
Koning, G. H. J. de, and Diepen, C. A. van: 1992, Crop Production Potential of Rural Areas within the European Communities, IV. Potential, Water-Limited and Actual Crop Production, Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy, The Hague, The Netherlands.
Lemon, E. R.: 1983, CO 2 and Plants, The Response of Plants to Rising Levels of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Westview Press, Boulder, CO.
Long, S. P.: 1991, ‘Modification of the Response of Photosynthetic Productivity to Rising Temperature by Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations: Has its Importance Been Underestimated?’, Plant, Cell and Environment 14, 729–739.
Miglietta, F.: 1991, ‘Simulation of Wheat Ontogenesis: II. Predicting Dates of Ear Emergence and Main Stem Final Leaf Number’, Climate Res. 2, 151–160.
Nonhebel, S.: 1993, ‘The Effect of Changes in Temperature and CO2 Concentration on Simulated Spring Wheat Yields in The Netherlands’, Climatic Change 24, 311–329.
Nonhebel, S.: 1994a, ‘Inaccuracies in Weather Data and Their Effects on Crop Growth Simulation Results, I. Potential Production’, Climate Res. 4, 47–60.
Nonhebel, S.: 1994b, ‘Inaccuracies in Weather Data and Their Effects on Crop Growth Simulation Results, II. Water Limited Production’, Climate Res. 4, 61–74.
Nonhebel, S.: 1994c, ‘The Effect of Use of Average Instead of Daily Weather Data in Crop Growth Simulation Models’, Agricultural Systems 44, 377–396.
Parry, M. L. and Carter, T. R.: 1989, ‘An Assessment of Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture’, Climatic Change 15, 95–116.
Rosenzweig, C.: 1985, ‘Potential CO2-Induced Climate Effects on North American Wheat-Producing Regions’, Climatic Change 7, 367–389.
Santer, B.: 1985, ‘The Use of General Circulation Models in Climate Impact Analysis, a Preliminary Study of the Impacts of a CO2 Induced Climatic Change on West European Agriculture’, Climatic Change 7, 71–93.
Sionit, N., Hellmers, H., and Strain, B. R.: 1980, ‘Growth and Yield of Wheat under CO2-Enrichment and Water Stress’, Crop. Sci. 20, 456–458.
Spitters, C. J. T., Kraalingen, D. W. G. van, and Keulen, H. van: 1989, ‘A Simple and Universal Crop Growth Simulator: SUCROS 87’, in Rabbinge, R., Ward, S. A., and van Laar, H. H. (eds.), Simulation and Systems Management in Crop Protection, Simulation Monographs, Pudoc, Wageningen, The Netherlands, pp. 145–181.
Wallén, C. C.: 1970, ‘Introduction’, in Wallén, C. C. (ed.), Climates of Northern and Western Europe, World Survey of Climatology, Vol. 5, Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 1–21.
Wiegand, C. L. and Cuellar, J. A.: 1981, ‘Duration of Grain Filling and Kernel Weight of Wheat as Affected by Temperature’, Crop Sci. 21, 95–101.
Wilks, D. S.: 1988, ‘Estimating the Consequences of CO2-Induced Climatic Change on North American Grain Agriculture Using General Circulation Model Information’, Climatic Change 13, 19–42.
Wit, C. T. de, and Penning de Vries, F. W. T.: 1982, ‘La synthèse et la Simulation des Systèmes de Production Primaire’, in Penning de Vries, F. W. T. and Djitèye, M. A. (eds.), La Productivité des Pâturages Sahelien, Agricultural Research Reports 918, Pudoc, Wageningen, The Netherlands, pp. 23–25.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Nonhebel, S. Effects of temperature rise and increase in CO2 concentration on simulated wheat yields in Europe. Climatic Change 34, 73–90 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139254
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139254