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Uncertainty, ecology, sustainability and policy

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Using an Australian focus to explore theoretical and policy issues of wider concern, this article examines linkages between public policy and the science of ecology. This is done within the broader framework of sustainability, emphasizing the problem of decision making in the face of ‘uncertainty’. Insights from the ecological, risk, sustainability and policy literatures are used. The sustainability-uncertainty problem is characterized, and the adequacy of existing policy support techniques and approaches noted, particularly the precautionary principle. The problem is further defined using the notion of ignorance. The treatment of ignorance and uncertainty in ecology is discussed. We suggest that the science of ecology has had a limited influence on policy formulation and discuss the basis of this using biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management as examples. We conclude by considering challenges for handling risk, uncertainty and ignorance in ecological science for policy formulation. We emphasize the need for improved communication between the science and policy communities, greater recognition of the limits of quantitative techniques in addressing uncertainty, and contingency planning.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Institute of Advanced Studies, The Australian National University, 0200, Canberra, ACT, Australia

    S. R. Dovers & T. W. Norton

  2. Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, EN3 4SF, Queensway, Enfield, UK

    J. W. Handmer

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  1. S. R. Dovers
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  2. T. W. Norton
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Dovers, S.R., Norton, T.W. & Handmer, J.W. Uncertainty, ecology, sustainability and policy. Biodivers Conserv 5, 1143–1167 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00051569

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