Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Resources of Manila Bay: A Preliminary Vulnerability Assessment

Abstract

This study considers the Manila Bay coastal area of the Philippines for evaluation of possible consequences of accelerated sea level rise in the context of climate change, and suggests adaptive responses to such threats. The semi-enclosed Manila Bay is bounded by the provinces of Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, and Cavite, and some of the towns and cities of Metro Manila along the eastern side. This region is important to the commercial, industrial, agricultural, and aquacultural activities of the Philippines, with Manila as the seat of the national government and the rest among the political constituents of the National Capital Region. An increasing trend in the mean sea level has been observed since 1965 and continues today. The bay area is already subject to several hazards including floods and storm surges during tropical cyclones. The shoreline has changed greatly in the last 5 to 10 years due to reclamation for housing, ports, coastal roads, buildings, and other urbanized developments, adding to the threat of inundation. Selection of appropriate responses is looked at in terms of expected vulnerability, costs, land use, and other sociopolitical and legal considerations. Partial results show that parts of Cavite and Metro Manila Bay areas are especially vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise.