In Praise of the Old Time Religion

Abstract

Let me begin by stating why I became an active participant in this discussion of the foundations of decision analysis. For many years, I had been blithely practicing in the field in the belief that all important questions about the underpinnings of the subject were now thoroughly understood and generally agreed upon. I knew that various theoreticians were developing alternate axiomatizations of decision theory, as they always had, but I did not believe that the resulting theories were being seriously proposed as bases for decision making. The onset of foreboding occurred when a prominent theorist made clear to me that he would reject a commonly accepted norm of decision analysis in making certain of his own decisions. I have previously described the conversation with the theorist that initiated my current militancy (Howard, 1988). However, I shall repeat it now for easy reference and because it so succinctly illustrates the issues at hand.