Important Role of Uncertainty in Forensic Geotechnical Engineering

Abstract

Uncertainty plays a significant role in forensic geotechnical engineering. There is generally uncertainty in the available evidence and there is subsequently uncertainty in any conclusions drawn from it. Probability theory highlights the following principles when drawing conclusions from evidence:

• 1. If evidence can be explained by multiple hypotheses, then it is impossible to draw conclusions with certainty;

• 2. Additional evidence does not necessarily reduce and can actually increase uncertainty in the conclusions drawn from it; and

• 3. Neglecting hypotheses from the set of all possibilities can lead to erroneous conclusions.

Three case histories are presented to demonstrate these principles in practice. These case histories underscore the importance of considering uncertainty carefully and in communicating uncertainty clearly in conducting forensic analyses.