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Analytical Family Demography pp 7–26Cite as

Reformulating Second Demographic Transition Theory

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Part of the book series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis ((PSDE,volume 47))

Abstract

The most familiar conceptual framework in population research describes demographic transition (Thompson 1929; Landry 1934; Davis 1945; Notestein 1953; Chesnais 1992; Kirk 1996; Jones et al. 1998; Caldwell et al. 2006) from high to low birth and death rates. As with any organizing concept that achieves enduring and widespread circulation, this idea of demographic transition has been elaborated in various ways including the variant considered here: that we may distinguish a new second demographic transition (SDT), theoretically and empirically separable from the original manifestation of the phenomenon. Proposed changes to SDT theory better reflect its underlying theoretical foundations and make it more flexible and consistent as a tool for understanding ongoing demographic processes in an expanding range of countries around the world. A brief empirical example illustrates how SDT theory reformulated in this way offers new insights into ongoing demographic trends.

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Acknowledgements

This chapter benefited from suggestions by Gerda Neyer, my FSU colleagues and students from demography brown bag discussions, and ongoing correspondence with Ron Lesthaeghe. There is more Berkeley in these pages than in anything else I have written or am likely to write, including ideas from Kornhauser and Blauner as well as the clear and contrasting influence of my advisor, Kingsley Davis. The repeated exhortations of Bob Schoen for deeper insights and more clarity were almost like having Kingsley critiquing my work again. Above all, the intellectual bedrock of these pages, from Maine and Morgan to Engels and Farber, was laid over 40 years ago in seminars on the history of social thought under the gentle old-school guidance of Kenneth Bock.

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  1. Department of Sociology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA

    Elwood Carlson

  2. Center for Demography and Population Health, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 32306, USA

    Elwood Carlson

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  1. Population Research Institute, Penn State University, University Park, PA, USA

    Robert Schoen

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Carlson, E. (2019). Reformulating Second Demographic Transition Theory. In: Schoen, R. (eds) Analytical Family Demography. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 47. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93227-9_2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-93227-9_2

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