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Uncertainty Management and Sensitivity Analysis

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Life Cycle Assessment

Abstract

Uncertainty is always there and LCA is no exception to that. The presence of uncertainties of different types and from numerous sources in LCA results is a fact, but managing them allows to quantify and improve the precision of a study and the robustness of its conclusions. LCA practice sometimes suffers from an imbalanced perception of uncertainties, justifying modelling choices and omissions. Identifying prevalent misconceptions around uncertainties in LCA is a central goal of this chapter, aiming to establish a positive approach focusing on the advantages of uncertainty management. The main objectives of this chapter are to learn how to deal with uncertainty in the context of LCA, how to quantify it, interpret and use it, and how to communicate it. The subject is approached more holistically than just focusing on relevant statistical methods or purely mathematical aspects. This chapter is neither a precise statistical method description, nor a philosophical essay about the concepts of uncertainty, knowledge and truth, although you will find a little bit of both. This chapter contains (1) an introduction of the essential terminology and concepts of relevance for LCA; (2) a discussion of main sources of uncertainty and how to quantify them; (3) a presentation of approaches to calculate uncertainty for the final results (propagation); (4) a discussion of how to use uncertainty information and how to take it into account in the interpretation of the results; and finally (5) a discussion of how to manage, communicate and present uncertainty information together with the LCA results.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the support from Jon Dettling (Quantis) for allowing us to use their study as an example.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. IRSTEA, UMR ITAP, ELSA Research Group and ELSA-PACT—Industrial Chair for Environmental and Social Sustainability, 361 rue Jean-François Breton, BP 5095, 34196, Montpellier, France

    Ralph K. Rosenbaum

  2. Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

    Stylianos Georgiadis

  3. Global Decision Support Initiative, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

    Stylianos Georgiadis

  4. Division for Quantitative Sustainability Assessment, Department of Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

    Peter Fantke

Authors
  1. Ralph K. Rosenbaum
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  2. Stylianos Georgiadis
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  3. Peter Fantke
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ralph K. Rosenbaum .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

    Michael Z. Hauschild

  2. IRSTEA, UMR ITAP, ELSA Research group and ELSA-PACT, Environmental and Social Sustainability Assessment, Montpellier, France

    Ralph K. Rosenbaum

  3. Department of Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

    Stig Irving Olsen

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Rosenbaum, R.K., Georgiadis, S., Fantke, P. (2018). Uncertainty Management and Sensitivity Analysis. In: Hauschild, M., Rosenbaum, R., Olsen, S. (eds) Life Cycle Assessment. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-56475-3_11

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-56475-3_11

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  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-56475-3

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