Abstract
As emphasized several times in the previous chapter, CRT is about analyzing risk and designing deliberate challenges. Whether we are deliberately challenging the effectiveness of a strategic plan or the scalability of an optimization or big-data mining algorithm, the concept of a challenge has the same fundamental characteristics. The purpose of this chapter is to develop a disciplinary approach to structure and model the analysis of risk and the concept of a challenge. This structure can assist an automated system to risk assess and challenge a human or a computer autonomously, and to teach the concept of challenge in a disciplinary manner to humans. What is risk? How to analyze risk and how to “think” risk? What is a challenge? What do we mean by deliberate? How do we design and model the concept of a challenge deliberately? How do we systematically design a challenge on which both humans and computers to operate? This chapter will address these questions by establishing a unifying theory that defines and models systems, uncertainty, ability, skill, capacity, competency, performance, capability, and our ultimate aim, risk and challenge.
The formulation of a problem is often more essential than its solution, which may be merely a matter of mathematical or experimental skill. To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old problems from a new angle, requires creative imagination and marks real advance in science
Albert Einstein and Leopold Infeld (1938) [2]
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Notes
- 1.
Two objectives are said to be positively correlated if an improvement in one is accompanied with an improvement in the other and vice versa.
- 2.
Even when we discuss CRT for cooperative situations, we use competition as the way to achieve cooperation. For example, by challenging the student’s mind with stimulating ideas, the student becomes more engaged, and pays more attention to and cooperates with the teacher.
- 3.
How to deal with the situation when one of the teams has more control externally than internally is outside the scope of this book.
- 4.
One can consider this concept on a philosophical level as actions produced by the environment that cause decay to occur, but we will avoid this level of interpretation in this book because it can create unmanageable analysis.
- 5.
Most of the definitions used for critical elements, hazards, threats, and risks in this book are compatible with ISO3100 [8], but sometimes get slightly changed to fit the context of this book.
- 6.
We have changed the definition of risk from the one introduced in ISO3100 [8] by using the word “impact” instead of “effect”. The reason is that the word “effect” has a more subtle meaning in this chapter.
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Abbass, H.A. (2015). Analytics of Risk and Challenge. In: Computational Red Teaming. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-08281-3_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-08281-3_2
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