Skip to main content

Returning Periods of Drought and Climate Change in the Zayandeh Rud River Basin

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Standing up to Climate Change

Abstract

Drought is the result of altered hydrological conditions, in particular, due to precipitation deficit over a period of time, and is one of the most common disasters in all kinds of climate regimes (Chen et al. 2013). Unlike other natural disasters, the effects of drought appear gradually over time, typically on the order of several months to several years. Drought analysis usually involves estimating one of the drought indices and then calculating drought characteristics based on the determined drought index such as severity, duration, and peak intensity (Yang 2010). Among the methods for determining drought characteristics, the threshold value could provide a frame of reference for drought assessment (Yevjevich 1967). As climate change is expected to vary worldwide due to natural and model ambiguities, predicting the impact of climate change on future droughts is vital for water resources management. In the Northern Hemisphere—between 15° and 45° latitudes, including the current study area—drought periods have been particularly severe (Mousavi 2005).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Chen YD, Zhang Q, Xiao M, Singh VP (2013) Evaluation of risk of hydrological droughts by the trivariate Plackett copula in the East River basin (China). Nat Hazards 68:529–547

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dastorani M, Bavani AM, Poormohammadi S, Rahimian M (2011) Assessment of potential climate change impacts on drought indicators (Case study: Yazd station Central Iran). Desert 16:159–167

    Google Scholar 

  • Gohari A, Eslamian S, Abedi-Koupaei J, Bavani AM, Wang D, Madani K (2013) Climate change impacts on crop production in Iran’s Zayandeh Rud River Basin. Sci Total Environ 442:405–419

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Golian S, Mazdiyasni O, AghaKouchak A (2015) Trends in meteorological and agricultural droughts in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 119:679–688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoffman MT, Carrick P, Gillson L, West A (2009) Drought, climate change and vegetation response in the succulent karoo, South Africa. S Afr J Sci 105:54–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirono D, Kent D, Hennessy K, Mpelasoka F (2011) Characteristics of Australian droughts under enhanced greenhouse conditions: results from 14 global climate models. J Arid Environ 75:566–575

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee T, Modarres R, Ouarda T (2013) Data-based analysis of bivariate copula tail dependence for drought duration and severity. Hydrol Process 27:1454–1463

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li C, Singh VP, Mishra AK (2013) A bivariate mixed distribution with a heavy-tailed component and its application to single-site daily rainfall simulation. Water Resour Res 49:767–789. https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20063

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madadgar S, Moradkhani H (2011) Drought analysis under climate change using copula. J Hydrol Eng 18:746–759

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology, vol 22. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, pp 179–183

    Google Scholar 

  • Moradi H, Rajabi M, Faragzadeh M (2011) Investigation of meteorological drought characteristics in Fars province, Iran. Catena 84:35–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mousavi S-F (2005) Agricultural drought management in Iran. In: Water conservation, reuse, and recycling: Proceedings of an Iranian-American Workshop. National Academies Press, pp 106–113

    Google Scholar 

  • Nelsen RB (2007) An introduction to copulas. Springer Science & Business Media

    Google Scholar 

  • Safavi HR, Esfahani MK, Zamani AR (2014) Integrated index for assessment of vulnerability to drought, case study: Zayandehrood River Basin, Iran. Water Resour Manag 28:1671–1688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sayari N, Bannayan M, Alizadeh A, Farid A (2013) Using drought indices to assess climate change impacts on drought conditions in the northeast of Iran (case study: Kashafrood basin). Meteorol Appl 20:115–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Selvaraju R, Baas S (2007) Climate variability and change: adaptation to drought in Bangladesh: a resource book and training guide, vol 9. Food and Agriculture Organisation, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Serinaldi F, Bonaccorso B, Cancelliere A, Grimaldi S (2009) Probabilistic characterization of drought properties through copulas. Phys Chem Earth Parts A/B/C 34:596–605

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shiau J (2006) Fitting drought duration and severity with two-dimensional copulas. Water Resour Manag 20:795–815

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svoboda M, Hayes M, Wood DA (2012) Standardized precipitation index user guide, vol WMO 1090. World Meteorological Organization

    Google Scholar 

  • Thom HCS (1966) Some methods of climatological analysis. Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Thrasher B, Xiong J, Wang W, Melton F, Michaelis A, Nemani R (2013) Downscaled climate projections suitable for resource management. EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 94:321–323

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wayne G (2013) The beginner’s guide to representative concentration pathways skeptical science

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu K, Yang D, Xu X, Lei H (2015) Copula based drought frequency analysis considering the spatio-temporal variability in Southwest China. J Hydrol 527:630–640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yan J (2007) Enjoy the joy of copulas: with a package copula. J Stat Softw 21:1–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang W (2010) Drought analysis under climate change by application of drought indices and copulas

    Google Scholar 

  • Yevjevich VM (1967) An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts. Hydrology papers no 23. Colorado State University

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

With appreciation to the Iran Meteorological Organization for preparing the much-needed precipitation data. Also, the first author wishes to thank the Biological System and Engineering Department at Virginia Tech University for providing the opportunity of using its facilities and for the various consultations with the experts at Virginia Tech.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Motevali Bashi Naeini, E., Abedi Koupai, J., Akhoond-Ali, A.M. (2020). Returning Periods of Drought and Climate Change in the Zayandeh Rud River Basin. In: Mohajeri, S., Horlemann, L., Besalatpour, A.A., Raber, W. (eds) Standing up to Climate Change. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-50684-1_6

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics