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Modeling biodiversity loss by global warming on Pantepui, northern South America: projected upward migration and potential habitat loss

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Abstract

This work aims to estimate the potential effects of the global warming projected for the twenty-first century on the biodiversity of a remote and pristine region of the Neotropics called Pantepui. Habitat loss and fragmentation by upward migration of bioclimatic conditions is analyzed using Species-Area Relationships (SAR) and Altitudinal Range Displacement (ARD) analysis. The ARD is a tool that uses the present-day lapse rate to estimate the upward migration of the species based on the global warming predicted by the IPCC. The results show that around 80% of the vascular flora, ca. 1,700 species of which up to 400 would be Pantepui endemics, are threatened of extinction. These estimates should be considered preliminary, but the danger is real. Therefore, suitable conservation or mitigation strategies are needed.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departament de Biologia Animal, Biologia Vegetal i Ecologia, Facultat de Biociències, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, C1-227, Bellaterra, 08193, Barcelona, Spain

    Sandra Nogué

  2. CSIC-Botanic Institute of Barcelona, Palynology and Paleoecology, Pg. del Migdia s/n, 08038, Barcelona, Spain

    Valentí Rull

  3. Departament d’Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 645, 08028, Barcelona, Spain

    Teresa Vegas-Vilarrúbia

Authors
  1. Sandra Nogué
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  2. Valentí Rull
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  3. Teresa Vegas-Vilarrúbia
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Valentí Rull.

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Nogué, S., Rull, V. & Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T. Modeling biodiversity loss by global warming on Pantepui, northern South America: projected upward migration and potential habitat loss. Climatic Change 94, 77–85 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9554-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9554-x

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